ONEOK
OKE
$92.46
+3.52%
ONEOK, Inc. is a diversified midstream energy service provider specializing in natural gas gathering, processing, storage, and transportation, as well as natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation and fractionation, operating primarily in the midcontinent, Permian, and Rocky Mountain regions. The company is a major, integrated player in the North American energy infrastructure landscape, distinguished by its extensive pipeline network and critical role in connecting hydrocarbon producers to end markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust financial performance post-integration of recent acquisitions, its status as a high-yield dividend stock, and its positioning to benefit from sustained natural gas and NGL demand, though it faces ongoing debates about capital allocation between growth projects and shareholder returns.…
OKE
ONEOK
$92.46
Related headlines
OKE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ONEOK's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $120.20 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$120.20
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$74 - $120
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating this may be a less-followed large-cap stock or that coverage consolidated post-merger. The consensus recommendation based on recent institutional actions leans neutral to slightly bullish, with recent ratings including 'Overweight' from Wells Fargo and 'Buy' from Jefferies, but also several 'Hold' or 'Sector Perform' ratings from firms like RBC Capital and Barclays. The average target price must be inferred from estimated metrics; using the estimated EPS average of $7.63 and the forward P/E of 14.21x implies a target price near $108.40, representing a significant 24% upside from the current price of $87.50.
The target range is wide, with estimated EPS spanning from a low of $5.87 to a high of $10.08, reflecting high uncertainty around commodity prices, volume throughput, and integration synergies. The high-end target likely assumes successful execution on growth projects, stable to expanding margins, and supportive energy markets. The low-end target likely factors in potential operational disruptions, weaker commodity spreads, or higher interest costs impacting profitability. The recent mix of rating actions—including an upgrade from Jefferies and a downgrade from JP Morgan—signals ongoing debate and lack of strong consensus, which, combined with the limited number of analysts, can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery.
Bulls vs Bears: OKE Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts slightly bullish, driven by strong fundamental performance, a compelling dividend, and significant implied upside to analyst targets. The most important tension in the investment debate is between the company's robust post-acquisition financial growth (29.5% revenue increase, margin expansion) and its valuation, which appears reasonable on a P/E basis (13.64x trailing) but expensive on a growth-adjusted PEG basis (2.95). The resolution of this tension—specifically, whether the company can sustain its high growth rate to justify its PEG multiple or if growth normalizes, leading to multiple compression—will be the primary driver of future stock performance. The bear case is supported by financial leverage and recent technical weakness, but the bull case is grounded in stronger concrete financial results.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth & Margin Expansion: Q4 2025 revenue grew 29.5% YoY to $9.07B, driven by post-acquisition integration. Gross margin expanded significantly from 16.82% in Q1 to 29.44% in Q4, demonstrating improved operating leverage and favorable commodity spreads.
- Robust Free Cash Flow & Sustainable Dividend: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.45B provides strong support for the business. The 5.58% dividend yield is well-covered by a 76.1% payout ratio, offering an attractive income component for total return.
- Significant Upside to Analyst Targets: The implied analyst target price of $108.40, based on forward P/E and estimated EPS, suggests a 24% upside from the current price of $87.50. This indicates fundamental undervaluation relative to analyst expectations.
- Solid Profitability & Capital Efficiency: The company delivered a 10.8% net margin and a 15.1% Return on Equity in Q4 2025. These metrics demonstrate efficient use of capital and assets, supporting the valuation.
Bearish
- High PEG Ratio Signals Growth Premium: The PEG ratio of 2.95 indicates the stock is trading at a significant premium to its implied earnings growth rate. This suggests limited appeal for pure growth investors and potential for multiple compression if growth decelerates.
- Elevated Debt & Tight Liquidity: A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 is elevated, and the current ratio of 0.71 indicates relatively tight liquidity. This financial structure could limit financial flexibility if interest rates rise or cash flows weaken.
- Recent Underperformance & Consolidation: The stock has pulled back -5.02% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 by -13.72%. This suggests profit-taking and a potential pause in the uptrend, with resistance at the 52-week high of $95.30.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & Mixed Sentiment: Only 6 analysts provide coverage, leading to less efficient price discovery. Recent ratings are mixed (Buys and Holds), reflecting ongoing debate about the company's post-acquisition trajectory and capital allocation.
OKE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past six months, evidenced by a 27.53% price gain over that period, culminating in a current price of $87.50. It is trading at approximately 75% of its 52-week range ($64.02 to $95.30), indicating it is in the upper half of its annual band, which reflects positive momentum but also suggests it is not yet at extreme overbought levels. Recent momentum shows a divergence, with a strong 12.18% gain over the past three months but a -5.02% pullback over the past month, signaling a potential consolidation or short-term profit-taking phase after the prior rally. This is further supported by the stock's negative 1-month relative strength of -13.72 against the S&P 500, indicating recent underperformance despite the longer-term bullish trend.
The stock's beta of 0.809 indicates it is approximately 19% less volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a regulated midstream entity and suggests lower systematic risk for investors. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $64.02, while immediate overhead resistance sits at the 52-week high of $95.30. A decisive breakout above $95.30 would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, whereas a breakdown below the recent consolidation range near $84 could indicate a deeper correction. The elevated short ratio of 4.94 suggests a significant level of bearish sentiment that could fuel a short-covering rally on positive news.
Volume data shows an average of approximately 3.19 million shares traded, providing adequate liquidity. The stock's maximum drawdown figure of -37.18% highlights its historical volatility during downturns, a risk factor investors must consider despite the lower beta. The current positioning, coupled with the recent pullback from highs near $94, suggests the stock is in a phase of digesting gains, with the next directional move likely contingent on broader energy sector sentiment and upcoming financial results.
Beta
0.81
0.81x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-36.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$64-$95
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.3% | +10.5% |
| 3m | +16.8% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +38.0% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +12.5% | +29.6% |
| ytd | +24.4% | +5.4% |
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OKE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been exceptionally strong, with Q4 2025 revenue of $9.065 billion representing a 29.5% year-over-year increase, driven largely by the full integration of acquired assets and robust volume throughput. Segment data reveals a balanced contribution: Natural Gas Liquids generated $3.98 billion, Refined Products and Crude contributed $4.03 billion, and Natural Gas Gathering and Processing added $1.80 billion, indicating diversified revenue streams. The sequential trend from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows consistent quarterly revenue growth from $8.04 billion to $9.07 billion, confirming an accelerating operational trajectory post-merger.
Profitability is solid, with Q4 2025 net income of $979 million and a net margin of 10.8%. Gross margin for the quarter was 29.44%, a significant expansion from the 16.82% reported in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operating leverage and favorable commodity spreads. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.447 billion is substantial, supporting the company's capital expenditure program and dividend commitments. The payout ratio of 76.1% indicates a sustainable dividend that is well-covered by earnings.
The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46, which is elevated but manageable for a capital-intensive midstream company. The current ratio of 0.71 points to relatively tight liquidity, which is common for the industry as cash is often deployed into growth projects. Return on Equity (ROE) of 15.1% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 5.57% demonstrate efficient use of capital and assets. The strong free cash flow generation provides internal funding flexibility, reducing reliance on external debt markets and underpinning financial stability.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.29%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.29%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OKE Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is 13.64x, while the forward P/E is 14.21x based on estimated EPS; the minimal gap suggests the market expects relatively stable, rather than accelerating, earnings growth in the near term. Compared to industry averages, ONEOK's P/E trades at a discount to many growth-oriented midstream peers, though a direct sector average P/E is not provided in the data; its EV/EBITDA of 10.15x offers a clearer cross-company comparison point.
Historical context is crucial: the stock's current trailing P/E of 13.64x is below its own 5-year historical average evident in the data, which has seen peaks above 20x and troughs near 6x. This positions the valuation in the mid-to-lower range of its historical band, suggesting the stock is not excessively priced relative to its own history. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.38 and Price-to-Book of 2.06 further support a valuation that is not stretched, especially considering the company's post-acquisition scale and cash flow profile.
The PEG ratio of 2.95, derived from the P/E and implied growth, indicates the stock is trading at a premium to its earnings growth rate, which may temper enthusiasm from pure growth investors. However, for income-focused investors, the dividend yield of 5.58% is a compelling component of total return. The valuation appears reasonable, balancing solid fundamentals with a shareholder-friendly yield, but lacks a significant margin of safety unless earnings growth re-accelerates.
PE
13.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 7x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: ONEOK carries an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46, which, while manageable for the capital-intensive midstream sector, increases interest expense sensitivity and could pressure cash flow if rates remain high. The current ratio of 0.71 indicates tight liquidity, a common industry trait but a risk if unexpected capital needs arise or operating cash flow dips. Furthermore, while revenue growth is strong at 29.5% YoY, a significant portion is tied to acquired assets; the risk is that organic volume growth may not sustain this pace, leading to earnings disappointment and a derating of the premium PEG ratio of 2.95.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's valuation presents a compression risk. Its forward P/E of 14.21x, while below its own historical average, is paired with a high PEG ratio, making it vulnerable if earnings growth decelerates. The stock has shown high historical volatility with a max drawdown of -37.18%, indicating it is not immune to severe energy sector sell-offs. Externally, the company is exposed to commodity price spreads impacting margins, regulatory pressures on energy infrastructure, and competitive pressures for volume commitments in key basins like the Permian. Recent underperformance vs. the S&P 500 (-13.72% over 1 month) may also signal a sector rotation away from energy.
Worst-Case Scenario: The most damaging scenario involves a combination of a sharp decline in natural gas and NGL prices, compressing gross margins back towards Q1 2025 levels (~17%), coupled with an economic slowdown reducing volume throughput. This would lead to missed earnings estimates, a dividend coverage scare despite the current sustainable payout ratio, and multiple compression. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically retest its 52-week low of $64.02, representing a potential loss of approximately -27% from the current price of $87.50. The high short ratio of 4.94 could exacerbate the decline in a negative feedback loop.

