Okta
OKTA
$148.84
+1.41%
Okta is a cloud-native security company specializing in identity and access management (IAM), serving both workforce and customer identity needs through its Okta Workforce Identity and Auth0 platforms. As a market leader in the IAM space, Okta differentiates itself with a unified, cloud-first approach that enables secure access for employees, contractors, and end users across any application. The current investor narrative centers on Okta's strong execution following a better-than-expected Q1 FY2027 report, with upgraded full-year guidance and a strategic push into securing AI agent identities, though concerns about revenue growth deceleration and AI-driven disruption persist.…
OKTA
Okta
$148.84
Related headlines
OKTA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Okta's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $193.49 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$193.49
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$119 - $193
Analyst target range
Okta is covered by 7 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution includes 5 Buy/Overweight ratings, 2 Neutral ratings, and no Sell ratings. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $5.26 and forward P/E of 33x, the implied target is approximately $173.6, representing 22.8% upside from the current price of $141.42. The consensus recommendation is Overweight/Buy, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and margin expansion. The target range spans from a low of $171.3 (based on low EPS estimate of $5.19 and 33x P/E) to a high of $179.9 (based on high EPS of $5.45 and 33x P/E). The narrow spread of about 5% suggests strong conviction among analysts. The high target assumes continued revenue growth acceleration and margin improvement, while the low target likely factors in potential headwinds from AI disruption or macro slowdown. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from BMO Capital (Market Perform to Outperform) and reaffirmations from multiple firms after Q1 results, indicating positive sentiment. The absence of downgrades and the tight target range signal that analysts see a clear path to value realization.
OKTA Technical Analysis
Okta's 1-year price change of +44.1% reflects a strong recovery from its 52-week low of $62.66, with the current price of $141.42 trading at 96.9% of the 52-week range (high $145.95). This positioning near the highs suggests bullish momentum and market confidence, though it also raises the risk of overextension in the near term. The stock has rebounded sharply from a February low of $69.51, indicating a sustained uptrend over the past year. Short-term momentum is robust, with 1-month and 3-month price changes of +4.5% and +76.4%, respectively. The 3-month surge dramatically outpaces the 1-year gain, signaling accelerating momentum that aligns with the post-earnings rally in late May. However, the 1-month change of +4.5% is more moderate, suggesting a potential consolidation phase after the explosive move. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is strong, with 3-month relative strength of +62.8%, indicating significant outperformance. The 52-week high of $145.95 acts as immediate resistance; a breakout above this level would signal continuation of the uptrend and potentially open the door to new highs. Support lies at the 52-week low of $62.66, though more immediate support is near the $115-120 area (June lows). Beta of 0.773 indicates the stock is less volatile than the market, which is unusual for a tech stock and may reflect its recent stability; however, the 40.98% max drawdown over the period highlights that downside risk remains significant.
Beta
0.77
0.77x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$63-$153
Price range past year
Annual Return
+50.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKTA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +24.1% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +136.5% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +61.4% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +50.1% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +78.0% | +10.2% |
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OKTA Fundamental Analysis
Okta's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with Q4 FY2026 (Jan 31, 2026) revenue of $761 million, up 11.6% year-over-year from $682 million in the prior-year quarter. The multi-quarter trend reveals decelerating growth: Q1 FY2026 revenue was $688 million (11.5% YoY), Q2 $728 million (12.7% YoY), Q3 $742 million (11.6% YoY), and Q4 $761 million (11.6% YoY). While growth remains in the double digits, the pace has moderated from the mid-teens seen in earlier periods. Subscription revenue of $1.458 billion (trailing twelve months) dominates, while technology services contribute a smaller $31 million, indicating the core business is subscription-based with high recurring revenue. The deceleration raises questions about market saturation and competitive pressures, but the consistent 11-12% growth still reflects solid demand for identity solutions. Okta has achieved profitability, with net income of $63 million in Q4 FY2026, compared to $23 million in the year-ago quarter, marking a significant improvement. Gross margin remains strong at 77.9% (Q4 FY2026), slightly up from 76.8% a year earlier, reflecting stable pricing and cost management. Operating margin improved to 6.6% from 1.2% in the prior-year quarter, driven by operating leverage as revenue scales. The net margin of 8.3% is healthy for a software company, though still below industry leaders; the trajectory is positive as the company moves from GAAP losses to consistent profitability over the past four quarters. Okta's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.06, indicating minimal leverage. Free cash flow (FCF) for the trailing twelve months is $900 million, implying a FCF yield of approximately 6.1% based on the current market cap of $14.86 billion. The current ratio of 1.36 suggests adequate liquidity, though not excessive. ROE of 3.4% is low, reflecting the company's asset-heavy balance sheet (large cash and investment holdings) relative to net income. Overall, Okta generates substantial cash flow to fund operations and growth internally, with no reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$761000000.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.58%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
77.92%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$900000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OKTA Overvalued?
Since Okta has positive net income ($63 million in Q4 FY2026), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 63.0x, while the forward P/E is 33.0x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp increase in EPS, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the Software - Infrastructure industry average P/E of approximately 35x (based on sector data), Okta's trailing P/E of 63x represents a 80% premium, while its forward P/E of 33x is roughly in line with the industry. This indicates that the market is pricing in above-average growth expectations for the forward period, but the current valuation is elevated relative to historical earnings. Historically, Okta's P/E has ranged from negative (during loss-making periods) to over 100x. The current trailing P/E of 63x is near the lower end of its historical range over the past two years, when the company was often unprofitable. The forward P/E of 33x is below the historical average, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its own history if the growth expectations materialize. The P/S ratio of 5.1x is also below the industry average of ~8x, reinforcing the view that Okta is reasonably valued on a sales basis.
PE
63.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -97x~191x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
40.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple

