ON

onsemi

$0.00

+6.01%
May 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
ON Semiconductor Corp (onsemi) is a leading supplier of power semiconductors and image sensors, strategically focused on the automotive and industrial markets. The company is the world's second-largest power chipmaker and the largest supplier of image sensors to the automotive sector, positioning it as a critical enabler in high-growth end markets. The current investor narrative is dominated by its successful pivot towards electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and industrial automation, with recent news highlighting its strong cash flow, aggressive share buybacks, and its perceived value despite a significant price surge, as the market debates its positioning within the broader AI and data center-driven semiconductor supercycle.

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ON 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $116.2
Average Target $116.2
High Target $133.63
Low Target $98.77

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on onsemi's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

14 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

14

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (29%)
Hold
7 (50%)
Sell
3 (21%)

The stock is covered by 14 analysts, indicating solid institutional interest. The consensus sentiment appears mixed-to-cautiously optimistic, with recent institutional ratings showing a cluster of 'Neutral' and 'Hold' actions alongside several 'Overweight' and 'Buy' ratings from firms like Wells Fargo, Needham, Keybanc, and Piper Sandler. The average target price is not provided in the data, so the implied upside or downside cannot be calculated. The target price range is also not specified in the provided dataset. Typically, a wide range between low and high targets signals high uncertainty or divergent views on the company's future prospects—such as the pace of margin recovery, EV adoption rates, or competitive pressures. The absence of specific target data limits the precision of this analysis, but the presence of 14 analysts confirms it is a well-followed mid-to-large cap name within the semiconductor sector. The recent ratings actions on February 10, 2026, which were predominantly reiterations, suggest analysts are in a watchful waiting mode post-earnings, assessing the sustainability of the recovery trajectory.

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ON Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 174.77% gain over the past year. As of the latest close at $116.20, the price is trading at approximately 97.6% of its 52-week high of $119.10, indicating it is near the peak of its recent range and reflecting extreme bullish momentum, though it also signals potential overextension. The short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with the stock up 30.58% over the past month and 68.14% over the past three months, far outpacing the SPY's gains of 4.84% and 8.15%, respectively, which underscores its high-beta, high-momentum characteristics. Recent momentum shows no signs of divergence from the longer-term trend, with the 1-month and 3-month returns building upon the explosive 6-month gain of 148.82%. The stock's beta of 1.938 confirms it is nearly twice as volatile as the broader market, which amplifies both gains and risks, a critical factor for risk management. Key technical levels are clear: immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $119.10, while support lies much lower near the 52-week low of $40.62. A decisive breakout above $119.10 would signal a continuation of the parabolic move, while a failure could lead to a sharp pullback given the extended valuation and high volatility. The stock's positioning near all-time highs, combined with a high beta of 1.94, suggests it is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The massive 174.77% yearly gain and the 30.58% monthly surge indicate the move is mature, and the proximity to the $119.10 resistance level is a key watchpoint for a potential consolidation or reversal. The extreme relative strength, evidenced by a 146.89% outperformance versus the SPY over one year, highlights its leadership but also its susceptibility to a sector-wide rotation.

Beta

1.94

1.94x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-28.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$41-$119

Price range past year

Annual Return

+174.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodON ReturnS&P 500
1m+30.6%+4.4%
3m+68.1%+8.5%
6m+148.8%+9.7%
1y+174.8%+28.8%
ytd+104.9%+9.3%

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ON Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been volatile, with the most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $1.53 billion representing an 11.17% year-over-year decline from $1.72 billion in Q4 2024. However, examining the sequential quarterly trend from a disastrous Q1 2025 ($1.45B, -22.6% YoY) shows a recovery to Q2 ($1.47B), Q3 ($1.55B), and Q4 ($1.53B), suggesting stabilization after a significant downturn. Segment data reveals the Power Solutions Group, at $1.46 billion, is the dominant revenue driver, vastly outweighing the Intelligent Sensing Group's $479.6 million, indicating the core power business is central to the turnaround narrative. Profitability has recovered sharply from a deep loss in Q1 2025. The company returned to profitability with Q4 2025 net income of $181.8 million, following a net loss of $486.1 million in Q1. Gross margin for Q4 was 34.92%, a significant improvement from the severely depressed 20.32% in Q1 but still below the 45.23% achieved in Q4 2024, indicating margin recovery is ongoing but not yet complete. The operating margin of 16.53% in Q4 demonstrates substantial operational leverage returning as revenue stabilizes. The balance sheet is robust, with a strong current ratio of 4.52 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.69 billion, providing ample internal funding for growth and shareholder returns, as evidenced by $450.2 million in stock repurchases in Q4 alone. An ROE of 1.58% is currently low, reflecting the impact of the prior quarter's losses on equity, but the strong FCF yield and low debt levels point to a healthy financial foundation supporting the aggressive capital return policy.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.11%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.34%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Intelligent Sensing Group
Power Solutions Group

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Valuation Analysis: Is ON Overvalued?

Given the company's return to profitability with positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is an extremely high 183.93x, which is distorted by the inclusion of the large Q1 2025 loss in the trailing twelve-month earnings. The forward P/E of 27.33x, based on analyst EPS estimates, is far more meaningful and indicates the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery and future growth. Compared to sector averages, ON trades at a premium based on sales multiples. Its Price/Sales ratio of 3.71x and EV/Sales of 7.23x are elevated relative to typical semiconductor industry ranges, suggesting the market is awarding a premium for its strategic positioning in automotive and industrial end markets. This premium is likely justified if the company can successfully execute its margin expansion and growth plans in EVs and AI-sensing, but it also raises the bar for execution. Historically, the current valuation represents a significant expansion. The stock's own historical P/E ratio from recent quarters shows a wide swing from negative during the loss period to 29.85x at the end of Q4 2025. The current forward P/E of 27.33x places it near the upper end of its recent historical band when profitable, suggesting the market has already priced in a substantial portion of the expected recovery. Trading near historical highs on a forward earnings basis implies optimistic expectations are baked in, leaving little room for disappointment.

PE

183.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -7x~49x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

26.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple