Oscar Health, Inc.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of Oscar Health (OSCR), the stock presents substantial challenges alongside potential high-risk opportunity.

Technical & Valuation Assessment: The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading near yearly lows with high volatility, indicating significant market skepticism. While this suggests an oversold condition, traditional valuation metrics are unusable due to negative earnings. The investment thesis cannot rely on current fundamentals but must be predicated on a credible expectation of a future turnaround.

Fundamental & Risk Outlook: The core issue is severe fundamental deterioration, with declining revenue and deep losses leading to a negative return on equity. Although the company's low debt level is a positive, it is overshadowed by poor profitability and high volatility risk, making the stock nearly twice as volatile as the market.

Recommendation: HOLD for existing investors with high risk tolerance; avoid for new investors. The combination of persistent revenue decline, negative profitability, and high volatility presents a highly speculative and risky profile. A buy decision would require high conviction in a successful operational turnaround that is not yet evident in the current data. Investors should wait for concrete signs of sustained fundamental improvement before considering a position.

*This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis of its current challenges, the 12-month outlook for Oscar Health (OSCR) is highly speculative and contingent on a successful operational turnaround.

Key catalysts for a positive re-rating would be concrete evidence of reversing the revenue decline, a clear path toward profitability, and a significant reduction in cash burn, which are not yet evident. The primary potential risk remains the continuation of its current fundamental deterioration—persistent revenue declines and deep losses—which could erode investor confidence and capital further. Given the lack of a formal analyst target price and the stock's highly volatile and oversold state, any recovery is unlikely to be linear; investors should monitor for stabilization in the $10-$12 range, with a breakout above $16 being a tentative signal of regained momentum, though significant downside risk persists below $10.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Oscar Health, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $13.73, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, OSCR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

OSCR has demonstrated significant weakness with substantial price declines across multiple timeframes in a volatile trading pattern.

The stock has experienced severe short-term pressure with a 23% monthly decline, while its 9.8% quarterly underperformance versus the market aligns with its historically high volatility profile. OSCR currently trades near the lower quadrant of its 52-week range at approximately 25% above the yearly low, suggesting an oversold condition that reflects the stock's 46% maximum drawdown over the past year.

Revenue & Profitability: OSCR's Q4 2025 performance shows a significant contraction, with revenue declining to $2.81 billion from $2.99 billion in Q3. Profitability has deteriorated sharply, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -12.6% and an operating loss, reflecting considerable pressure on earnings.

Financial Health: The company maintains a low debt ratio of 6.8% and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, indicating a conservative capital structure. However, the current ratio below 1.0 signals potential liquidity strain, though a strong cash flow to debt ratio of 1.56 provides some coverage flexibility.

Operational Efficiency: Operational efficiency is weak, with a deeply negative Return on Equity of -36.1% and a negative Return on Assets, indicating poor profit generation from its asset base. The asset turnover of 0.44 suggests moderate efficiency in using assets to generate sales, but this is overshadowed by the significant losses.

Based on the provided metrics, OSCR demonstrates clear signs of fundamental distress rather than presenting a tradable valuation level. Both trailing and forward PE ratios are negative, as is the EV/EBITDA, indicating the company is currently unprofitable on both a net income and operating cash flow basis. This makes traditional valuation multiples unusable for assessing over- or undervaluation, shifting the analysis to whether the market is pricing in a credible future recovery.

Without industry average data for comparison, a definitive peer evaluation is not possible. However, a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 4.07 suggests the market is valuing the company's equity significantly above its accounting net asset value, which is atypical for a loss-making firm. The PEG ratio is also negative due to the negative earnings, rendering it meaningless and further highlighting that the investment case must be based on projected future profitability rather than current fundamentals.

Volatility Risk: OSCR exhibits significant volatility risk, evidenced by its high beta of 1.898, indicating it is nearly 90% more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity is corroborated by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -45.53%, highlighting considerable downside potential during market declines.

Other Risks: The absence of reported short interest suggests a lack of significant speculative pressure against the stock, which is a positive factor. However, an assessment of liquidity risk and other specific operational or sector-related challenges would be prudent for a complete risk profile, as these elements are not detailed in the provided metrics.