Oscar Health, Inc.

Based on a comprehensive review, OSCR presents a high-risk, high-potential investment case that is suitable only for aggressive, risk-tolerant investors.

Technical & Fundamental Outlook The stock is extremely volatile (Beta 1.9) and has shown significant price declines, though a recent monthly uptick suggests potential stabilization. Fundamentally, the picture is mixed: while revenue is growing, the company is deeply unprofitable with negative cash flow, indicating serious operational challenges. The lack of peer benchmarking data makes it difficult to definitively assess its financial health against competitors.

Valuation & Recommendation OSCR's valuation is challenging due to negative earnings, but its low Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 0.45 and extremely low PEG ratio suggest the market may be undervaluing its future growth potential. This creates a speculative opportunity for investors who believe the company can achieve profitability.

Buy/Hold/Sell Recommendation For investors with a high-risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, OSCR could be considered a speculative buy. The potential for a turnaround, implied by its sales-based valuation metrics, offers significant upside if management can fix its profitability issues. However, this is a highly speculative position, and investors must be prepared for substantial volatility and the possibility of further losses. This is not suitable for conservative portfolios.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for OSCR:

12-Month Outlook for OSCR

Over the next 12 months, the primary catalyst for OSCR will be any demonstrable progress by management toward achieving profitability and positive cash flow, which could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock given its very low sales-based valuation. Key risks remain substantial and include the company's deep unprofitable operations, high cash burn, and extreme volatility (Beta 1.9), which could lead to further sharp declines if execution falters or market sentiment sours. While no analyst target price is available, the potential for a successful turnaround creates a wide target price range from a downside risk near its recent lows to substantial upside potential if the speculative growth story materializes, making it suitable only for aggressive, risk-tolerant investors.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Oscar Health, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $16.55, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, OSCR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Of course, here is the technical analysis of OSCR's price performance.

Overall Assessment OSCR demonstrates significant volatility and a complex performance profile, characterized by a sharp recent decline over three months but a notable recovery attempt over the past month.

Short-term Performance The stock has displayed conflicting short-term signals, with a strong 9.51% gain over the past month contrasting sharply with a steep -15.38% loss over three months. Despite the recent monthly uptick, OSCR has significantly underperformed the broader market by -18.75% over the three-month period, highlighting substantial weakness relative to market benchmarks.

Current Position Trading at $17.38, OSCR resides near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($11.2 to $23.8), suggesting it is neither strongly overbought nor oversold based on this metric. However, the stock's high beta of 1.9 indicates it is roughly twice as volatile as the market, and the substantial -42% max drawdown underscores the pronounced risk and downward pressure experienced during the past year.

Revenue & Profitability: OSCR reported $2.99 billion in Q3 2025 revenue, showing sequential growth from Q2's $2.86 billion. However, the company remains deeply unprofitable with a negative net income margin of -4.6% and negative EBITDA of $125 million, indicating significant operational challenges despite revenue scale.

Financial Health: The company maintains a conservative debt position with a low debt ratio of 11.9%, but exhibits severe cash flow strain with negative operating cash flow per share of -$3.78. The current ratio below 1.0 at 0.95 suggests potential liquidity constraints in meeting short-term obligations.

Operational Efficiency: OSCR demonstrates poor capital allocation with a negative return on equity of -13.4% and negative return on assets of -2.4%. While fixed asset turnover appears strong at 35.8, the asset turnover of 0.52 indicates inefficient overall asset utilization relative to revenue generation.

Valuation Level: OSCR presents a challenging valuation profile due to its negative earnings, as evidenced by its negative TTM and forward PE ratios and negative EV/EBITDA. However, the stock appears inexpensive based on its sales, with a PS ratio of 0.45. The low PEG ratio of 0.22, which factors in earnings growth projections, suggests the market may be pricing in strong future profitability relative to its current price, potentially indicating an undervalued position on a growth-adjusted basis despite the negative current earnings.

Peer Comparison: A peer comparison cannot be performed as industry average data is not available. This lack of benchmark data prevents any conclusive assessment of whether OSCR's valuation multiples, such as its sales-based PS ratio of 0.45 or its elevated PB ratio of 4.95, are attractive or expensive relative to its competitors. An accurate valuation judgment requires context from the specific industry's financial metrics.

Volatility Risk: OSCR exhibits very high volatility risk, demonstrated by its Beta of 1.899, indicating it is approximately 90% more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity is further evidenced by a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -42.01%, highlighting substantial downside risk during market corrections. Investors should anticipate considerable price swings in this stock.

Other Risks: Despite having no short interest, which suggests a lack of strong negative speculative pressure, the stock's high volatility itself presents a significant liquidity and execution risk. The absence of short interest does not mitigate the primary risk of large, rapid price movements that could challenge orderly entry and exit points. Liquidity should be monitored closely, especially during periods of market stress.