PBF Energy
PBF
$61.24
+0.11%
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. The company is a significant player in the U.S. refining industry, with a market cap of approximately $8.7 billion and a workforce of over 3,600 employees, distinguishing itself through its integrated refining and logistics segments. The current investor narrative is dominated by a historic surge in refining margins driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, which have widened crack spreads and created a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners. This has propelled the stock to a 52-week high, but also raises questions about the sustainability of these margins and the potential for a pullback once geopolitical risks subside.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$61.24
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy PBF Today?
Rating: Hold. The stock has strong momentum and is benefiting from a historic refining margin environment, but the consensus recommendation is 'hold' with an average target price of $57.08, implying a 21% downside from the current price of $72.28. The thesis is that while the company is currently highly profitable, the sustainability of these margins is questionable, and the stock has already priced in much of the good news.
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's recent earnings recovery and low valuation multiples are positive, but the reliance on geopolitical tensions for windfall profits and the negative trailing cash flow introduce significant uncertainty. The consensus 'hold' rating and analyst targets below the current price suggest limited upside. To upgrade to bullish, we would need to see sustained crack spreads and positive free cash flow. To downgrade to bearish, a sharp decline in margins or a negative earnings surprise would be required.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $62.54 and implied upside of +2.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$62.54
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+2.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $83
Analyst target range
PBF Energy has coverage from 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean recommendation score of 3.21 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $57.08, which is 21.0% below the current price of $72.28, implying a downside risk of -21.0%. The consensus leans neutral, with a mix of hold and underweight ratings, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally.
Bulls vs Bears: PBF Investment Factors
PBF Energy presents a classic cyclical dilemma: the current bull case is built on extraordinary refining margins driven by geopolitical turmoil, which have propelled the stock to a 219.8% one-year gain and near its 52-week high. The bear case rests on the unsustainability of these margins, as evidenced by analyst targets 21% below the current price and a 'hold' consensus. While the company's recent earnings recovery is impressive, the negative trailing cash flow and dependence on temporary supply disruptions make the bull case fragile. The most important tension is whether the current crack spread environment persists; if it does, the stock could continue to rally, but if it normalizes, the downside could be severe. Currently, the bear case has stronger evidence due to valuation and consensus skepticism, but the momentum and low multiples provide a compelling counterargument.
Bullish
- Historic refining margin windfall: Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven crack spreads to record levels, with diesel prices above $5 for the first time since 2022. This has created a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners, directly benefiting PBF's earnings.
- Strong recent earnings recovery: Q1 2026 net income of $198.3 million marked a significant turnaround from the -$401.8 million loss in Q1 2025, with EPS of $1.69. Revenue grew 11.9% YoY to $7.90 billion, indicating a robust cyclical recovery.
- Extremely low valuation multiples: PBF trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.105x and a price-to-book ratio of 0.58x, both deeply discounted. The forward PE of 11.1x suggests the market expects a strong earnings rebound, yet the stock remains cheap relative to historical norms.
- Massive price momentum: The stock has surged 219.8% over the past year and 50.5% in the last month alone, trading near its 52-week high of $74.74. This momentum reflects strong investor conviction in the current margin environment.
Bearish
- Analyst targets imply 21% downside: The average analyst target price is $57.08, which is 21.0% below the current price of $72.28. The consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean score of 3.21, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of the rally.
- Negative trailing earnings and cash flow: PBF's trailing twelve-month EPS is -$0.05, and free cash flow is -$683.9 million, indicating that the company is not generating positive cash flow on a trailing basis. This raises concerns about financial flexibility.
- Dependence on geopolitical tensions: The current windfall profits are largely driven by temporary geopolitical disruptions, such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade. If tensions ease, crack spreads could normalize, leading to a sharp earnings decline.
- High volatility and drawdown risk: The stock's max drawdown over the past year is -35.34%, and its beta is high, making it susceptible to sharp corrections. The recent parabolic move (up 50% in a month) increases the risk of a pullback.
PBF Technical Analysis
PBF Energy is in a powerful uptrend, with the stock price at $72.28 as of July 31, 2026, representing a 219.8% increase over the past year. The current price is near the top of its 52-week range, trading at 96.7% of the range (from a low of $21.24 to a high of $74.74), indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment. This positioning near the highs suggests the stock is experiencing a momentum-driven rally, but also raises concerns about overextension and potential for a pullback.
Beta
0.08
0.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$21-$75
Price range past year
Annual Return
+169.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +26.4% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +50.4% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +72.5% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +169.4% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +114.7% | +12.7% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
PBF Energy's revenue trajectory has been volatile but recently improving, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.90 billion, up 11.9% year-over-year from $7.07 billion in Q1 2025. The company has shown a recovery from a loss-making period in 2024 and early 2025, with Q1 2026 net income of $198.3 million, a significant turnaround from the -$401.8 million loss in Q1 2025. However, the multi-quarter trend is mixed: Q2 2025 saw a small loss, Q3 2025 was profitable, Q4 2025 was profitable, and Q1 2026 continued the positive trend, indicating a cyclical recovery driven by improved refining margins.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
6.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683900000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given that PBF Energy's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.05), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric, currently at 0.105x, which is extremely low. The forward PE ratio of 11.1x suggests the market expects a significant earnings recovery, as the company is projected to generate positive earnings in the next fiscal year. The gap between the negative trailing PE and the positive forward PE indicates that the market is pricing in a strong earnings rebound, which is consistent with the recent improvement in refining margins.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~10x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. PBF's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS -$0.05), and free cash flow is -$683.9 million, indicating that the company is not generating positive cash flow on a trailing basis. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 is moderate, but the negative cash flow could strain liquidity if margins deteriorate. Revenue is highly concentrated in refining, which is subject to volatile crack spreads and input costs; Q1 2026 gross margin was only 6.1%, highlighting thin profitability even in a good quarter. The company's earnings have swung from a -$401.8 million loss in Q1 2025 to a $198.3 million profit in Q1 2026, demonstrating extreme earnings volatility that makes forecasting difficult.