PBF ENERGY INC.
PBF
$0.00
-3.21%
PBF Energy Inc is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels and other petroleum products in the United States. It operates a network of refineries and logistics assets, positioning it as a key domestic player in the volatile oil refining and marketing sector.…
PBF
PBF ENERGY INC.
$0.00
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy PBF Today?
Based on a synthesis of the volatile technicals, cyclical fundamentals, and transient catalyst-driven rally, the objective assessment is a Hold for existing investors and a High-Risk Speculative Buy only for aggressive, short-term traders. The stock is not suitable for conservative or long-term investors seeking stability, as its value is almost entirely contingent on the persistence of an exceptional refining margin environment that history shows is fleeting. The current price already reflects much of the near-term optimism.
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While the current catalyst is powerful, the stock's violent rally appears disconnected from its poor cash flow and inconsistent earnings history. The low sales multiple offers a margin of safety, but only if the company can convert sales to sustainable profit—a historically difficult feat in this sector.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF ENERGY INC.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
3 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst coverage for PBF is limited, with only three analysts providing estimates. They forecast an average EPS of $2.35 and average revenue of $41.46 billion for the upcoming period. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of opinions, with actions including 'Neutral' from Mizuho and Goldman Sachs, an 'Overweight' from Piper Sandler, and a 'Sell' from TD Cowen. The consensus appears cautious, with no strong buy consensus evident from the recent actions. A specific consensus target price is not provided in the data.
Bulls vs Bears: PBF Investment Factors
PBF Energy presents a classic high-risk, high-reward opportunity driven by a favorable refining margin supercycle. The stock has surged on these prospects but trades at a technical extreme while underlying fundamentals remain inconsistent. The investment thesis hinges entirely on the sustainability of the current margin environment.
Bullish
- Strong Refining Margin Environment: Geopolitical tensions are widening crack spreads, boosting profitability for refiners.
- Significant Price Momentum: Stock up 58% over 6 months and 149% over 1 year, showing strong investor interest.
- Low Price-to-Sales Valuation: PS ratio of 0.11 suggests the stock is deeply discounted relative to revenue.
- Q4 2025 Profitability Rebound: Returned to net income of $78.4M, a sharp reversal from prior year's loss.
Bearish
- Inconsistent Profitability & Cash Flow: Trailing EPS is negative, and free cash flow is deeply negative at -$783M.
- Technically Overbought: Trading at 91% of its 52-week high after a parabolic rally, suggesting risk of pullback.
- Cyclical and Volatile Business: Revenue and earnings are highly dependent on volatile refining margins.
- Weak Operational Efficiency: Negative trailing ROA and ROE highlight challenges in asset and capital efficiency.
PBF Technical Analysis
The stock has exhibited a strong overall uptrend over the past six months, with the price surging from around $30 in early October 2025 to a recent high above $51 in late March 2026. This represents a significant gain of approximately 58.1% over the six-month period, significantly outperforming the broader market. Short-term performance has been exceptionally strong but volatile. The stock gained 33.76% over the past month, fueled by a sharp rally in March. However, it has pulled back from its recent peak, closing at $47.62 on March 31, 2026, which is a 5.3% decline from the previous close of $50.29. The current price of $47.62 places it near the top of its 52-week range of $13.62 to $52.18, trading at approximately 91% of its 52-week high. This indicates the stock is in a technically overbought zone following its parabolic advance, with the recent pullback suggesting potential consolidation.
Beta
0.41
0.41x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$52
Price range past year
Annual Return
+139.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +17.0% | -3.7% |
| 3m | +69.9% | -4.1% |
| 6m | +51.0% | -2.1% |
| 1y | +139.3% | +16.1% |
| ytd | +61.5% | -3.9% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and profitability have been inconsistent, reflecting the cyclical nature of the refining business. For Q4 2025, revenue was $7.14 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year. The quarter showed a dramatic improvement in profitability with net income of $78.4 million (EPS of $0.67), a sharp reversal from a net loss of -$289.3 million in Q4 2024. However, trailing twelve-month metrics show a net loss, with a negative net margin of -0.54% and negative EPS of -$0.05. Financial health appears mixed. The debt-to-equity ratio is a moderate 0.55, indicating a reasonable capital structure. The current ratio is a healthy 1.21. However, free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is deeply negative at -$783.2 million, which is a significant concern and suggests cash generation is not covering capital expenditures and shareholder returns. Operational efficiency metrics are weak, with negative returns on assets (-0.036) and equity (-0.030) for the trailing period. This aligns with the company's recent history of quarterly losses and underscores the challenges in maintaining consistent profitability in the refining sector.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.01%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-783200000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given the company's negative trailing net income, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is not meaningful. Therefore, we use the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for valuation, which is 0.105. This extremely low sales multiple suggests the market is valuing the company at a deep discount relative to its revenue, likely due to its inconsistent profitability and negative cash flow. A forward PE ratio of 14.5 is provided, based on estimated future earnings. For peer comparison, industry average valuation data is not available in the provided inputs. The low PS ratio indicates the stock may be undervalued on a sales basis, but this must be weighed against the fundamental challenges in converting those sales into sustainable profits and cash flow.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk is operational and cyclical: PBF's profitability is directly tied to crack spreads, which are currently elevated due to geopolitical supply disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz blockade). These conditions are inherently temporary, and a normalization of spreads would swiftly pressure earnings, as evidenced by the company's history of quarterly losses and negative trailing twelve-month metrics. Financial risk is elevated by deeply negative free cash flow (-$783M TTM), which limits financial flexibility and raises questions about the sustainability of capital returns. Market risk is high as the stock is technically overbought, trading near its 52-week high after a parabolic 149% one-year gain, increasing vulnerability to a sharp correction if the bullish narrative falters. Furthermore, limited analyst coverage and a mixed institutional rating landscape (including a Sell from TD Cowen) suggest a lack of conviction in the durability of the current upcycle.
FAQ
Key risks include a sudden collapse in refining margins (crack spreads), which would immediately pressure profits, as seen in its negative trailing net margin. The company's deeply negative free cash flow of -$783M is a major financial risk. The stock is also technically overbought, trading at 91% of its 52-week high, making it vulnerable to a sharp correction.
The 12-month outlook is highly bifurcated. The base case (50% probability) sees a consolidation between $35 and $48, assuming earnings meet the analyst consensus EPS of $2.35. The bull case (30%) could see a run to $52-$60 if margins remain elevated. The bear case (20%) risks a fall to $20-$30 if the current favorable environment unravels.
PBF appears undervalued on a sales basis with a very low Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.11. However, this discount reflects its inability to consistently convert sales into profit. Based on forward earnings estimates, its Forward P/E of 14.5 is reasonable, but those estimates are highly dependent on volatile crack spreads. It is arguably fairly valued given the extreme cyclical risks.
PBF is a high-risk, speculative buy only suitable for traders betting on sustained high refining margins. For most investors, it is not a good buy due to its inconsistent profitability (negative trailing EPS), deeply negative free cash flow, and its position near a 52-week high after a 149% yearly surge. The current favorable environment is cyclical and may not last.
PBF is suitable only for short-term, tactical investment. The refining business is intensely cyclical, and the company's poor cash flow and inconsistent earnings history make it a poor candidate for a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. The current investment thesis is driven by a temporary geopolitical catalyst, not by durable competitive advantages.