ProShares Short QQQ
PSQPSQ is an inverse ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, operating in the financial sector.
Its core identity is a tactical trading tool designed to profit from or hedge against daily declines in major US technology stocks.
Updated: February 19, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PSQ Today?
Based on the analysis provided, PSQ (ProShares Short QQQ) presents a highly specialized and speculative opportunity. Here is a comprehensive breakdown:
Technical Analysis PSQ has effectively achieved its inverse objective, showing positive returns over the past one and three months amid market weakness. However, it trades near its 52-week low and has experienced a significant maximum drawdown of over 35%, highlighting its inherent volatility and substantial risk of loss during market upturns.
Fundamentals & Valuation A traditional fundamental or valuation analysis cannot be conducted, as PSQ is an ETF designed to track the inverse of the NASDAQ-100 index's daily performance. It does not have financial statements, earnings, or standard valuation metrics like a typical company. Its "value" is purely a function of its net asset value and the performance of its underlying short positions.
Risk The primary risk is its structural design: it is intended to profit only from short-term declines in the NASDAQ-100. Holding it as a long-term investment is highly speculative and risky, as market rallies will cause the fund's value to decay. The high volatility and potential for sharp losses make it unsuitable for most investors.
Buy Recommendation
PSQ is not recommended as a long-term "buy and hold" investment. It is a tactical trading instrument strictly for sophisticated investors seeking to hedge portfolio risk or speculate on short-term market downturns. For the vast majority of investors seeking long-term growth, taking a short position against the market via an inverse ETF like PSQ carries an unacceptably high level of risk. A long-term investment in broad market index funds remains a more prudent strategy.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
PSQ 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for PSQ (ProShares Short QQQ):
12-Month Outlook for PSQ
The 12-month outlook for PSQ is bearish and carries exceptionally high risk, as its performance is entirely dependent on a sustained downturn in the technology-heavy NASDAQ-100 index. The key catalysts would be a significant deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, such as persistent inflation forcing the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy, or a sharp downturn in the earnings of major tech companies. The primary risk is the structural decay inherent to the fund; any rally in the Nasdaq over the holding period would cause the ETF's value to decline, making a 12-month timeframe highly speculative. Given the fund's design and the absence of a traditional analyst target price, the outlook is not suited for a conventional target range, and it should only be considered by sophisticated investors for tactical, short-term hedging or speculative purposes.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about ProShares Short QQQ's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $30.91, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: PSQ Investment Factors
Overall, PSQ has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong Payment Volume Growth: 536% jump in Black Friday payment volume indicates robust transaction growth.
- Rapid Revenue Expansion: Revenue more than doubled in Q4 2025, reaching $18.2M annually.
- Improved Cost Management: Operating costs reduced by 27%, narrowing net loss to $24.9M.
- New Product Launch: PSQ Impact platform launch could expand fundraising and political services.
- Capital Raise: $7.5M share offering provides funding for growth initiatives.
Bearish
- NYSE Compliance Issues: Received NYSE notice for non-compliance with continued listing standards.
- CEO Share Sale: CEO sold $19,765 worth of shares, potentially signaling insider concerns.
- Sustained Net Losses: Still reporting significant annual losses despite improvement.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Operates in regulated industries, facing potential compliance challenges.
- Business Model Uncertainty: Pivoting focus amidst growth adds execution risk.
PSQ Technical Analysis
PSQ has demonstrated strong relative outperformance against the market despite its inverse structure, though it remains near yearly lows after significant volatility.
The ETF has posted positive returns of 3.75% and 3.02% over one and three months respectively, outperforming the market by 3.04% during the three-month period, indicating effective short positioning during recent market weakness. With a beta of -1.05, this inverse performance aligns with its designed characteristics during declining markets.
Currently trading at $31.02, PSQ sits just 6.1% above its 52-week low of $29.24 and remains 34% below its yearly high of $46.98, positioning it closer to oversold territory than overbought despite recent gains. The significant 35.48% maximum drawdown over the past year underscores the substantial downside volatility inherent in this inverse product.
| Period | PSQ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| 6m | -4.2% | +6.5% |
| 1y | -13.7% | +12.1% |
| ytd | +2.1% | +0.2% |
PSQ Fundamental Analysis
Of course. Since there is no data available for PSQ, a standard financial analysis cannot be conducted.
Without access to the company's financial reports, it is impossible to assess its revenue trends, profitability, or profit margins. An analysis of its financial performance is entirely speculative in the absence of concrete data.
Similarly, any evaluation of financial health, including debt levels, liquidity, and cash flow, would be baseless. The company's ability to meet its obligations and fund its operations cannot be determined.
Finally, key metrics for operational efficiency such as Return on Equity (ROE) and asset turnover are unavailable. This lack of information prevents any meaningful insight into how effectively management is utilizing the company's assets to generate profits. A thorough analysis requires the foundational data that is currently missing.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation metrics are unavailable for PSQ as all traditional valuation ratios (PE, PB, PEG, EV/EBITDA) are reported as N/A. This situation makes it impossible to evaluate whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued using standard quantitative approaches. An accurate assessment would require the company's underlying financial data, such as earnings or book value, which appear to be missing or negative in this case.
A peer comparison is also not feasible, as no industry average data has been provided. Without benchmark metrics from comparable companies, it is challenging to contextualize PSQ's standing within its sector. The inability to perform this relative analysis significantly limits the scope and conclusiveness of the valuation.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility risk is significant, as the fund's negative beta of -1.05 indicates it moves inversely to the market, which can amplify downside volatility during rallies. This is confirmed by the substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -35.48%, demonstrating the potential for severe peak-to-trough declines in adverse conditions.
The risk profile is noteworthy for the absence of reported short interest, which removes the threat of a short squeeze but also suggests limited speculative hedging activity. Transaction costs may be elevated due to the leveraged/inverse structure inherent to this type of ETF, impacting liquidity for frequent traders.
FAQs
Bearish. Despite strong operational growth (536% payment volume jump, doubled Q4 revenue), risks are too acute: PSQ faces NYSE delisting threats, sustained losses, and regulatory hurdles in its pivot. This ETF's -1.05 beta also means it's designed to lose value in rising markets. Suitable only for speculative traders comfortable with high volatility and binary outcomes. Avoid for long-term or risk-averse investors.
Based on the provided data, PSQ cannot be definitively classified as overvalued or undervalued due to a complete lack of standard valuation metrics. All key ratios like P/E, P/B, and P/S are reported as N/A, which suggests the underlying financial data (such as earnings or book value) may be missing, negative, or otherwise not applicable. This makes a quantitative assessment impossible and also prevents a meaningful comparison to industry averages. Without fundamental financial reports, any valuation conclusion would be purely speculative.
Based on PSQ's profile as an inverse ETF, the key risks of holding it are:
1. Market Direction Risk: The fund is designed to lose value when the underlying market rises, making its performance entirely dependent on sustained bearish market conditions. 2. Volatility and Drawdown Risk: The fund's structure can lead to severe losses, as evidenced by its substantial -35.48% maximum drawdown, amplifying declines during market rallies. 3. Structural and Cost Risk: As a leveraged/inverse ETF, it is susceptible to decay from daily rebalancing and may carry higher transaction costs, which can erode returns over time.
These risks are specific to the nature of inverse ETFs and are not related to business fundamentals, which are not applicable to this type of fund.
Based on its structure as a leveraged inverse ETF, forecasting PSQ to 2026 is exceptionally speculative and carries extreme risk. The fund's performance is not based on company fundamentals but is entirely tied to the daily inverse performance of the Nasdaq-100 index over a three-year horizon.
* Target Price Range: Given the decay inherent in levered ETFs over long periods and the unpredictability of a multi-year tech bear market, establishing a target range is not analytically sound; the fund is designed for short-term trading, not long-term holding. * Key Growth Drivers: The only "drivers" for PSQ would be a severe, protracted bear market for mega-cap tech stocks, potentially caused by a deep recession, significantly higher long-term interest rates, or stringent new tech regulations. * Main Assumptions: This forecast assumes the ETF continues its strategy without closure and that the Nasdaq-100 experiences a sustained downward trend through 2026, which is a highly contrarian view. * Uncertainty: The forecast is subject to extreme uncertainty; even if the Nasdaq is flat over three years, PSQ would likely lose significant value due to volatility decay, making any long-term price prediction unreliable for investors.
This instrument is unsuitable for a conventional investment forecast and should only be considered by sophisticated investors for very short-term, high-risk tactical positions.