D-Wave Quantum Inc.
QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.
specializes in delivering quantum computing systems, software, and services within the computer processing industry. It is a pioneer in the field, known for developing annealing quantum computers and providing real-world quantum computing solutions primarily to businesses and government entities.
Updated: January 16, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy QBTS Today?
Based on a comprehensive analysis of QBTS, the stock presents a highly speculative and risky profile that is difficult to recommend for most investors.
Technical & Fundamental Mismatch: While the stock is not technically overbought, its extreme volatility and mid-range price do not compensate for its deeply troubled fundamentals. The company is burning cash at an alarming rate, with negative earnings and poor operational efficiency, despite a healthy gross margin. This indicates a business model that is not yet sustainable.
Valuation & Risk are Prohibitive: The valuation metrics are a major red flag, with an exceptionally high Price-to-Sales ratio suggesting the stock is priced for perfection far beyond its current modest revenue. Combined with its high beta and significant cash burn, the risk of further substantial downside is elevated.
Recommendation: HOLD / AVOID For investors seeking stable growth, QBTS carries too much risk relative to its potential reward. The company must demonstrate a clear path to profitability and significantly improve its cash flow before it can be considered a viable investment. It is better suited for speculative traders who can tolerate extreme volatility and potential capital loss, rather than long-term investors. This is not investment advice, for reference only.
QBTS 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for QBTS:
12-Month Outlook for QBTS
The outlook for QBTS over the next year is heavily dependent on its ability to secure additional funding and demonstrate a credible path toward profitability. The primary catalyst would be a significant positive development, such as a major partnership or a breakthrough that drastically reduces its cash burn and validates its business model. However, the dominant risks remain its alarming rate of cash consumption, negative earnings, and a valuation that appears disconnected from its current financial reality, leaving it highly vulnerable to negative news or a broader market shift away from speculative assets. Given the absence of a consensus analyst target price and the company's precarious financial position, investors should prepare for continued high volatility, with a wide potential price range skewed to the downside if operational improvements fail to materialize.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $28.83, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: QBTS Investment Factors
Overall, QBTS has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Major Strategic Acquisition: Acquiring Quantum Circuits for $550M accelerates expansion into new quantum tech.
- Significant Stock Price Gains: Stock has surged over 200%, showing strong market interest.
- Addressing Near-Term Optimization: Focus on solving specific problems today creates tangible value.
- Gaining Formidable Ally: Strategic partnerships strengthen market position and technological capabilities.
Bearish
- Intense Market Competition: Faces fierce rivalry from other quantum computing firms.
- Speculative Price Volatility: Stock is prone to hype-driven swings, signaling high risk.
- High Valuation Concerns: Questions arise over sustainability of $10B+ market cap.
- Hype-Driven Bubble Risks: Quantum computing sector may face a speculative crash in 2026.
QBTS Technical Analysis
QBTS has exhibited significant volatility with substantial declines over recent months, though it currently maintains a moderate recovery from extreme lows.
Short-term performance shows mixed signals with QBTS up 3.0% over one month but down 17.82% over three months, underperforming the market by 21.19% during this period. The stock's high beta of 1.557 confirms its elevated volatility relative to broader market movements.
Currently trading at $28.82, QBTS sits approximately 38% above its 52-week low but remains 38% below its peak, positioning it in the middle of its annual range. Given the substantial 54.42% maximum drawdown and current mid-range positioning, the stock doesn't appear severely overbought or oversold at present levels.
| Period | QBTS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.0% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -33.0% | +4.4% |
| 6m | +94.7% | +10.9% |
| 1y | +447.1% | +15.7% |
| ytd | +2.5% | +1.2% |
QBTS Fundamental Analysis
Of course. Here is a concise analysis of QBTS's fundamentals based on the provided data.
**Revenue & Profitability**
QBTS shows modest revenue growth, increasing from $3.10 million in Q2 to $3.74 million in Q3 2025. However, profitability is deeply problematic. The company operates at a significant loss, with a net income margin of -37.4% in Q3, driven by operating expenses that far exceed gross profit. The gross profit margin is healthy at 71.4%, but this is completely eroded by high research, development, and administrative costs, leading to a severely negative operating income margin.
**Financial Health**
The company's financial health appears precarious from a cash flow perspective but strong in terms of liquidity. While key liquidity ratios like the current ratio (54.7) are exceptionally high, indicating ample short-term assets to cover liabilities, the cash flow situation is dire. The operating and free cash flow per share are negative, and the cash flow to debt ratio is deeply negative (-2.46), suggesting the company is burning cash and may struggle to service its obligations from operations.
**Operational Efficiency**
Operational efficiency is a major concern. Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) are deeply negative at -20.9% and -16.2%, respectively, indicating poor deployment of capital. The asset turnover ratio is extremely low (0.0043), signifying that the company generates very little revenue relative to its asset base. The cash conversion cycle of 201 days points to a significantly long period between spending cash and collecting it from sales, which strains working capital.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level: QBTS currently exhibits concerning valuation metrics with negative trailing and forward PE ratios along with a negative EV/EBITDA, indicating the company is not generating positive earnings. The extremely high PS ratio of 431.98 and elevated PB ratio of 15.55 suggest significant overvaluation relative to the company's current revenue and book value. While the PEG ratio below 1 appears favorable, it must be interpreted cautiously given the negative earnings foundation.
Peer Comparison: Without specific industry average data for comparison, a conclusive peer analysis cannot be performed. The absence of industry benchmarks prevents meaningful contextualization of QBTS's valuation multiples against sector norms. This limitation underscores the importance of obtaining relevant industry comparables to properly assess QBTS's relative valuation positioning.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: QBTS exhibits significant volatility risk, with a beta of 1.557 indicating it is approximately 56% more volatile than the broader market. This heightened sensitivity is further evidenced by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -54.42%, highlighting considerable downside price swings. Investors should be prepared for above-average price fluctuations.
Other Risks: The absence of reported short interest could suggest a lack of significant bearish sentiment, but it may also reflect low trading activity or liquidity in the stock. The primary risk in this category is therefore potential illiquidity, which can lead to wider bid-ask spreads and challenges in executing larger trades. Investors should monitor trading volume closely.
FAQs
Bearish. QBTS presents substantial risks due to its negative profitability, concerning cash burn, and extreme valuation metrics (e.g., PS ratio of 431.98), which are not supported by current fundamentals. While analyst sentiment is positive and strategic acquisitions offer long-term potential, the stock's high volatility and speculative nature make it unsuitable for risk-averse investors. This stock may only appeal to highly speculative, long-term growth investors comfortable with significant potential losses.
Based on the data, QBTS stock is overvalued. Key metrics like the astronomical PS ratio of 431.98 and a high PB ratio of 15.55 are major red flags, indicating the market price is severely disconnected from the company's current revenue and book value. This overvaluation persists despite negative earnings (negative PEs) because it is driven by speculative growth expectations rather than current fundamentals. The company's deeply negative profitability and poor operational efficiency do not justify these extreme valuation multiples, making the stock price appear unsustainable.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding QBTS:
1. Financial Sustainability Risk: The company is burning cash with deeply negative operating and free cash flows, creating a high risk of financial distress if it cannot secure additional funding or achieve profitability. 2. Operational Efficiency Risk: Extremely poor returns on assets and equity coupled with a very low asset turnover ratio indicate fundamental inefficiency in using its capital to generate revenue and value. 3. Volatility and Liquidity Risk: The stock's high beta and significant historical price swings expose investors to above-average market risk, compounded by potential illiquidity that could make trading difficult.
Of course. Here is the QBTS stock forecast for 2026.
***
Based on a professional assessment of its financial health and market position, the outlook for QBTS to 2026 is highly speculative and hinges on executing a successful turnaround.
1. Target Price Range: * Base Case ($15 - $25): Assumes continued cash burn, inability to secure favorable funding, and failure to gain significant market traction. The stock price corrects to reflect its fundamental challenges. * Bull Case ($40 - $60): Assumes the company successfully raises capital without excessive dilution, dramatically reduces its cash burn, and secures a major partnership that validates its technology and drives revenue growth toward profitability.
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Successful Capital Raise: Securing non-dilutive funding or a strategic investment is paramount to survival and funding growth initiatives. * Path to Profitability: Demonstrating a clear and credible plan to reduce operating expenses and achieve positive cash flow. * Market Validation: Landing a flagship partnership or customer that proves the commercial scalability of its technology.
3. Main Assumptions: * The company addresses its critical cash flow situation. * Macroeconomic conditions do not deteriorate further, limiting access to capital. * Competitive pressures do not intensify beyond current expectations.
4. Forecast Uncertainty: * This forecast carries extremely high uncertainty. QBTS's negative cash flow and profitability metrics create a high risk of dilution or financial distress, making any price target highly speculative.
In summary, while QBTS possesses technology that could be valuable, its current financial trajectory is unsustainable. The 2026 forecast is binary: either the company navigates its severe financial challenges, leading to substantial upside, or it fails to do so, resulting in significant downside from current levels.