Ferrari N.V.

**Technical Analysis**

RACE shows recent stabilization with a 5.76% monthly gain, but remains down significantly over three months, trailing the broader market. Trading near the midpoint of its 52-week range, it appears technically neutral with lingering vulnerability due to its substantial drawdown. The low beta suggests relative stability, yet it has proven susceptible to sharp declines.

**Fundamental Analysis**

The company excels fundamentally with strong revenue growth and impressive profit margins, including a net margin exceeding 21%. Exceptional financial health is highlighted by a very high interest coverage ratio, indicating minimal debt risk. However, operational strength comes with a premium valuation reflected in elevated P/E ratios.

**Valuation & Risk Assessment**

Valuation appears stretched, with a high P/E and an extremely elevated PEG ratio suggesting weak earnings growth support for the current price. Risks include economic sensitivity common to luxury goods and potential for sharp corrections, despite the stock's typically low volatility. The lack of peer data makes relative valuation difficult, but absolute metrics point to a premium price.

**Investment Recommendation**

RACE presents a classic case of a high-quality company trading at a premium price. While its brand strength and financial health are exceptional, the current valuation appears demanding relative to near-term growth prospects. Investors might consider waiting for a more attractive entry point, as the stock's fundamentals justify a long-term hold but not its current premium. Prioritize risk-adjusted entry strategies given the elevated valuation multiples.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for Ferrari (RACE):

12-Month Outlook for RACE

The primary catalyst for RACE will be its ability to defend its premium valuation through consistent execution of its high-margin, low-volume strategy, demonstrating resilient demand for its luxury goods even in a softer economic climate. Key risks are overwhelmingly tied to its valuation, as the stretched P/E and PEG ratios leave the stock vulnerable to a significant correction if growth disappoints or if a broader market downturn reduces appetite for expensive equities. Given the lack of a specific analyst target, a reasonable target price range is difficult to pin down, but performance will likely hinge on market sentiment; shares could trade sideways or see a downside re-rating toward the lower end of its 52-week range if the premium multiples contract, while upside is contingent on earnings surprises that justify the current price.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Ferrari N.V.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $366.50, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, RACE has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

RACE demonstrates mixed performance with recent gains failing to offset significant quarterly losses. The stock remains in a challenging position after experiencing substantial declines from its yearly highs.

The stock shows encouraging short-term recovery with a 5.76% monthly gain, although it significantly trails the market over three months with an 11.24% decline. RACE's notable underperformance versus the broader market highlights ongoing investor concerns despite recent stabilization.

Currently trading at $374.99, RACE sits approximately 28% above its 52-week low but remains 28% below its yearly high, indicating a middle-range position. The stock appears neither clearly overbought nor oversold, though the substantial maximum drawdown of 36% suggests continued vulnerability despite its low beta profile.

Of course. Here is a fundamental analysis of RACE based on the provided data.

**Revenue & Profitability**

RACE demonstrates strong profitability with significant revenue generation. For Q4 2025, the company reported €1.80 billion in revenue, achieving a robust gross profit margin of 51.9%. This high margin flows through to the bottom line, with an operating income margin of 28.4% and a net profit margin of 21.1%, indicating efficient control over operating expenses and a healthy conversion of revenue into net income.

**Financial Health**

The company exhibits exceptional financial strength, particularly in its debt management. The interest coverage ratio of 43.6x is extremely high, signifying that operating profits are more than sufficient to cover interest expenses. The effective tax rate was approximately 24%, which is reasonable. While specific debt-to-equity ratios are not provided in this dataset, the high interest coverage suggests a low-risk debt profile and strong solvency.

**Operational Efficiency**

Operational efficiency is a standout feature for RACE. The company's high net profit margin of 21.1% directly contributes to a strong Return on Equity (ROE), although the exact ROE figure is unavailable here. The asset turnover ratio is also not specified, but the combination of high margins and substantial revenue points to effective utilization of assets to generate profits. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.1 reflects a premium market valuation, likely based on expectations of continued high growth and operational excellence.

Valuation Level: Based on a forward PE ratio of approximately 37 and a trailing PE ratio exceeding 35, Ferrari appears to be trading at a significant premium. This is particularly underscored by the extraordinarily high PEG ratio of nearly 80, which indicates the stock's price is not adequately supported by its earnings growth expectations. The high PE multiples suggest the stock is overvalued from an earnings perspective.

Peer Comparison: A quantitative peer comparison is severely limited due to the absence of provided industry average data. The lack of a comparable PB ratio and EV/EBITDA metric further restricts a relative valuation analysis against industry benchmarks. Consequently, the valuation assessment remains incomplete without contextual industry standards for high-end luxury automotive or consumer discretionary sectors.

Volatility Risk: Ferrari's exceptionally low beta of 0.52 indicates the stock has historically been significantly less volatile than the broader market, suggesting a defensive characteristic. However, the stock's substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -36.19% reveals that it is still capable of experiencing sharp, deep declines during market downturns, presenting a notable volatility risk despite its low beta.

Other Risks: The complete absence of reported short interest indicates high investor conviction and a lack of prominent bearish sentiment against the company. While this is positive, investors remain exposed to risks inherent to the luxury auto sector, such as economic sensitivity and potential shifts in consumer demand for high-end discretionary goods.