Rubrik
RBRK
$112.96
+5.86%
Rubrik, Inc. is a data security software company that provides cyber resilience solutions — spanning cyber posture and cyber recovery — to enterprises worldwide, operating through a single software and services segment with the majority of revenue generated in the Americas. The company has positioned itself as a platform player at the intersection of data backup, ransomware recovery, and cloud data management, differentiating itself from legacy backup vendors and point-solution security providers by unifying data protection with active threat detection. The current investor narrative centers on Rubrik's rapid transformation into a high-growth, high-margin subscription business, with recent quarterly results showing accelerating revenue growth and a dramatic narrowing of losses that has driven a sharp re-rating in the stock. Attention has intensified around the AI-driven cybersecurity spending cycle — as autonomous AI threats compress attack timelines, enterprises are urgently upgrading defenses, a tailwind that has lifted peers like CrowdStrike and Cloudflare alongside Rubrik. The debate among investors is whether Rubrik's premium valuation is justified by its durable recurring revenue, 80%-plus gross margins, and strong free cash flow generation, or whether the stock has run ahead of fundamentals after a multi-month rally.…
RBRK
Rubrik
$112.96
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RBRK Today?
Based on the synthesis of fundamental, valuation, and analyst data, the recommendation is a Hold with a bullish bias. The core thesis is that Rubrik is a high-quality growth company with a durable competitive advantage in cyber resilience, but its current valuation already reflects much of the near-term optimism, as indicated by the modest 12.3% upside to the average analyst target of $119.81. The strong_buy consensus (mean 1.11) and consistent earnings beats support the quality of the business, but the risk/reward is balanced at current levels. Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 38.99% YoY, well above the software sector average; 2) Gross margin of 80.55%, demonstrating pricing power and scalability; 3) Free cash flow of $306.46M TTM, with a 90.1% conversion from operating cash flow; 4) Forward PE of 139.01x, which is extremely high and prices in flawless execution; and 5) PEG ratio of 0.41, suggesting that when adjusted for growth, the valuation may be reasonable. However, the negative net margin (-26.50%) and high EV/Sales (14.11x) are concerns. The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: 1) A slowdown in revenue growth below 30%, which would likely trigger multiple compression; 2) Increased competition from larger players like CrowdStrike or Microsoft, potentially pressuring margins; and 3) A broader market downturn, given the stock's high beta (1.243). The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the $85-$90 support level (implying a more attractive entry point) or if forward PE compresses below 100x while growth remains above 35%. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 25% or if free cash flow turns negative. Relative to its history, the stock is trading at a PS of 8.35x, which is significantly lower than its historical average of over 30x, suggesting that on a sales basis, it is not overvalued compared to its own past. However, relative to peers, the premium is justified by superior growth and margins. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels, warranting a Hold.
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RBRK 12-Month Price Forecast
Rubrik is a high-quality growth company with strong fundamentals, but the stock's valuation appears stretched after a massive rally. The AI cybersecurity tailwind is real, but much of the optimism is already priced in. The risk/reward is balanced, with limited upside to the average analyst target and significant downside if growth decelerates. We would upgrade to bullish if the stock pulls back to the $85-$90 support level or if forward PE compresses below 100x while growth remains above 35%. We would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 25% or if free cash flow turns negative.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rubrik's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $119.81 and implied upside of +6.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$119.81
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+6.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$110 - $135
Analyst target range
Rubrik is covered by 27 analysts, indicating robust institutional interest for a company that IPO'd in April 2024, with a consensus recommendation of 'strong_buy' and a recommendation mean of 1.11 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a sell). The average target price is $119.81, which implies approximately +12.3% upside from the current price of $106.71, suggesting analysts see moderate further appreciation but not the explosive upside the stock has already delivered. The consensus leans decidedly bullish, with the strong_buy rating and a target price above the current level, though the relatively modest implied upside suggests much of the near-term optimism is already priced in. The estimated EPS average of $2.04 for the forward period, with a tight range of $1.99 to $2.09, indicates high confidence among analysts in the company's path to profitability. The target price range spans from a low of $110.00 to a high of $135.00, a spread of $25.00 or approximately 22.7% of the low target, which signals moderate uncertainty but not extreme divergence in analyst views. The high target of $135.00 implies roughly +26.5% upside and likely assumes continued revenue acceleration above 40%, successful margin expansion toward breakeven, and multiple expansion as the company demonstrates sustained execution; it may also price in additional large enterprise wins or new product traction in AI-driven security. The low target of $110.00 implies just +3.1% upside and likely reflects a more conservative view on growth deceleration, competitive pressures from larger security vendors, or valuation compression as interest rates or market sentiment shift. The institutional ratings data shows a cluster of reiterations in June and July 2026 — BMO Capital (Outperform), Stephens & Co. (Overweight), DA Davidson (Buy), Baird (Outperform), BTIG (Buy), Wedbush (Outperform), Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight), and Rosenblatt (Buy) — all maintaining positive ratings with no downgrades visible, which suggests analysts have been consistently constructive following the company's strong Q2 earnings beat. The absence of recent downgrades or price target cuts, combined with the strong_buy consensus, indicates that the analyst community remains aligned with the bullish thesis, though the tight clustering of ratings and the modest implied upside to the average target suggest the stock may be fairly valued near current levels in the near term.
Bulls vs Bears: RBRK Investment Factors
The bull case for Rubrik rests on its exceptional revenue growth (38.99% YoY), expanding gross margins (80.55%), and robust free cash flow generation ($306.46M TTM), which collectively justify a premium valuation. However, the bear case highlights the stock's extreme forward valuation (139x PE), persistent GAAP losses, and high volatility (beta 1.243), which could lead to significant downside if growth decelerates. Currently, the bull evidence appears stronger due to the company's consistent execution and the secular tailwind from AI-driven cybersecurity spending, as evidenced by the stock's 116.54% six-month gain. The most critical tension is whether Rubrik can sustain its hyper-growth trajectory to justify its lofty multiples, or whether the stock has overshot fundamentals and is due for a correction. Resolution of this tension will likely hinge on upcoming quarterly results and guidance.
Bullish
- Hyper-Growth Subscription Model: Revenue grew 38.99% YoY to $387.07M in the latest quarter, with subscription contributing 96.7% of the total. This demonstrates a successful transition to a recurring revenue model with strong product-market fit.
- Best-in-Class Gross Margins: Gross margin expanded to 80.55% from 78.28% a year ago, reflecting the scalability of Rubrik's software platform. This is among the highest in the software infrastructure sector and supports long-term profitability.
- Dramatic Profitability Improvement: Net loss narrowed to -$41.85M from -$102.10M a year ago, with net margin improving from -36.66% to -10.81%. Operating margin also improved from -33.43% to -13.60%, showing strong operating leverage.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow is $306.46M, with $73.61M generated in the latest quarter. The FCF-to-operating cash flow ratio of 90.1% indicates high-quality earnings conversion despite GAAP losses.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation Multiples: The forward PE of 139.01x and EV/Sales of 14.11x are exceptionally rich, pricing in flawless execution. Even the trailing PS of 8.35x is elevated relative to mature SaaS peers, leaving little room for error.
- Persistent GAAP Unprofitability: Despite improvements, Rubrik remains unprofitable with a trailing EPS of -$0.03 and operating margin of -26.24%. The path to sustained profitability is not yet proven, and the company continues to burn cash on a GAAP basis.
- High Volatility and Drawdown Risk: Beta of 1.243 and a maximum drawdown of -55.52% highlight the stock's high-risk nature. The 52-week range of $42.25 to $109.00 underscores the potential for severe price swings.
- Negative Shareholders' Equity: Debt-to-equity ratio of -2.18 and negative book value per share reflect accumulated deficits. While common for high-growth software, it signals reliance on external capital and limits financial flexibility.
RBRK Technical Analysis
Rubrik is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the stock up 36.77% over the past year and an extraordinary 116.54% over six months, reflecting a dramatic acceleration in momentum. At a current price of $106.71, the stock is trading at approximately 99.6% of its 52-week range (low of $42.25, high of $109.00), sitting just below its high — a positioning that signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of overextension and profit-taking. The 52-week range itself is remarkably wide at roughly $66.75, underscoring the volatility that has characterized this name since its 2024 IPO. The stock's advance has been punctuated by sharp pullbacks, including a maximum drawdown of -55.52%, which is a critical reminder that this is a high-beta, high-volatility name where position sizing matters enormously. Recent momentum remains firmly positive but is decelerating relative to the explosive mid-year surge: the 1-month change of +6.95% and 3-month change of +51.97% show that while the stock continues to climb, the pace has moderated from the 6-month gain of 116.54%. Notably, the 1-month gain of 6.95% compares favorably to the S&P 500's -0.96% over the same period, yielding a relative strength of +7.91 percentage points, indicating Rubrik is significantly outperforming the broader market even as momentum cools. The 3-month relative strength of +49.97 points versus the S&P 500's +2.0% is striking, confirming that Rubrik has been one of the market's strongest performers over the past quarter. The divergence between the still-positive 1-month trend and the extraordinary 6-month trend suggests the stock may be entering a consolidation or digestion phase after its massive run, rather than a reversal, though traders should watch for any breakdown in short-term momentum as a potential early warning. Key technical levels are well-defined: the 52-week high of $109.00 serves as immediate resistance, and a decisive breakout above this level — particularly on strong volume — would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers targeting new highs. On the downside, the 52-week low of $42.25 represents the ultimate support zone, though intermediate support likely exists around the $85–$90 area where the stock consolidated in early September. With a beta of 1.243, Rubrik is approximately 24% more volatile than the broader market, meaning investors should expect amplified moves in both directions; a 10% market decline could translate to a roughly 12.4% drop in RBRK, making risk management and position sizing particularly important. The short ratio of 4.0 suggests moderate short interest, which could fuel a short squeeze on a breakout above resistance but also indicates some investors are positioning for a pullback.
Beta
1.24
1.24x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$42-$113
Price range past year
Annual Return
+40.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RBRK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.9% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +52.2% | +5.4% |
| 6m | +139.4% | +17.8% |
| 1y | +40.8% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +49.7% | +13.4% |
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RBRK Fundamental Analysis
Rubrik's revenue trajectory is exceptionally strong and accelerating: the most recent quarter (ending April 30, 2026) delivered $387.07 million in revenue, representing 38.99% year-over-year growth, up from $377.68 million in the prior quarter and $350.17 million two quarters before that. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential growth — from $309.86 million in Q2 FY2026 to $350.17 million in Q3, $377.68 million in Q4, and $387.07 million in Q1 FY2027 — with the subscription and circulation segment contributing $374.15 million of the $387.07 million total, or roughly 96.7% of revenue, underscoring the company's successful transition to a recurring revenue model. This growth rate is particularly impressive given the company's already substantial revenue base, and it suggests Rubrik is gaining share in the cyber resilience market as enterprises prioritize data security spending. The revenue growth is being driven almost entirely by the subscription business, with the small 'Product and Service, Other' segment at $12.92 million representing a negligible and likely declining portion of the mix. Profitability is improving dramatically even as the company remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis: net income was -$41.85 million in the most recent quarter, a significant improvement from -$86.97 million in the prior quarter and -$102.10 million in the year-ago quarter, with the net margin improving from -36.66% a year ago to -10.81% in the latest quarter. Gross margin stands at a stellar 80.55% in the most recent quarter, up from 78.28% a year ago and 73.08% two years ago, reflecting the scalability of the software model and improving unit economics. Operating margin remains negative at -13.60%, but this too has improved substantially from -33.43% a year ago, as the company leverages its operating expenses — R&D of $114.34 million and S&M of $193.10 million — across a growing revenue base. The company's balance sheet and cash flow profile are strengthening: free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis is $306.46 million, with the most recent quarter generating $73.61 million in free cash flow on operating cash flow of $81.69 million, demonstrating that Rubrik is now generating meaningful cash despite GAAP losses. The current ratio of 1.69 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, and cash at the end of the most recent period was $445.98 million. The debt-to-equity ratio of -2.18 is negative because the company has accumulated deficits resulting in negative shareholders' equity, which is common for recently public, high-growth software companies that have raised significant capital; this is not a sign of distress but rather reflects the cumulative losses from the company's growth phase. The ROE of 67.14% is technically positive but distorted by the negative equity base, and the ROA of -6.74% reflects the ongoing GAAP losses. The key takeaway is that Rubrik's cash generation is robust and improving, with free cash flow per share of $0.36 in the most recent quarter and a free-cash-flow-to-operating-cash-flow ratio of 90.1%, indicating high-quality earnings conversion.
Quarterly Revenue
$387068000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+39.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$306457000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RBRK Overvalued?
Because Rubrik's trailing net income is negative (EPS of -$0.03 and trailing PE of -31.43x), the PE ratio is not meaningful for valuation; instead, the PS ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and Rubrik currently trades at a trailing PS of 8.35x and an EV/Sales of 14.11x. The forward PE of 139.01x is based on estimated EPS of $2.04, implying the market expects a dramatic swing to profitability, but this forward multiple is exceptionally rich and reflects highly optimistic earnings expectations. The gap between the negative trailing PE and the positive forward PE of 139x implies the market is pricing in a rapid inflection to profitability, which is a high bar that leaves little room for execution missteps. On a peer comparison basis, Rubrik's PS of 8.35x is elevated relative to the broader software infrastructure sector, where mature SaaS companies often trade in the 5–10x range, but it is not unreasonable for a company growing revenue at nearly 39% with 80%+ gross margins. The EV/Sales of 14.11x is more demanding and reflects the company's net cash position and growth premium. Compared to high-growth security peers like CrowdStrike, which has historically traded at 15–25x forward sales, Rubrik's 8.35x trailing PS could be viewed as relatively reasonable, though the comparison is imperfect given differences in scale and profitability. The PEG ratio of 0.41 is notably low, suggesting that when adjusted for growth, Rubrik may actually be undervalued relative to its earnings growth trajectory — though this metric is less reliable for companies with negative or just-inflecting earnings. Historically, Rubrik's PS ratio has compressed dramatically: it was 27.98x in the April 2026 quarter, 29.10x in January 2026, 42.64x in October 2025, and 59.72x in July 2025, meaning the current 8.35x PS represents a massive de-rating from prior levels even as the stock price has risen — the compression reflects the rapid revenue growth outpacing the stock price appreciation. This historical context is crucial: the stock is not near the top of its own valuation band; rather, it has become significantly cheaper on a sales basis than it was a year ago, which could signal either a value opportunity or that the market is pricing in decelerating growth. The PCF ratio of 38.85x and price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 147.14x are high but reflect the company's early-stage cash flow profile; as FCF scales, these multiples should compress naturally.
PE
-31.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-72.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Rubrik faces significant financial and operational risks stemming from its unprofitable status and negative equity. Despite improving net margin to -10.81% from -36.66% a year ago, the company still reported a net loss of $41.85M in the latest quarter, and operating margin remains negative at -13.60%. The debt-to-equity ratio of -2.18 and negative book value indicate accumulated deficits, which could limit financial flexibility if growth slows. Additionally, revenue is highly concentrated in the subscription segment (96.7% of total), making any slowdown in that area particularly damaging. The company's high sales and marketing expenses ($193.10M in the latest quarter) are necessary to drive growth but also pressure profitability. Market and competitive risks are pronounced given Rubrik's premium valuation and high beta. The forward PE of 139.01x and EV/Sales of 14.11x leave little room for disappointment, and any deceleration in growth could trigger a sharp multiple compression. The stock's beta of 1.243 means it is 24% more volatile than the market, so a 10% market decline could lead to a 12.4% drop in RBRK. Competition from larger security vendors like CrowdStrike and Microsoft could intensify, and the rapid evolution of AI-driven threats may require continuous innovation, potentially increasing R&D costs. Recent news highlights the AI cybersecurity race as a tailwind, but also underscores the competitive landscape. The worst-case scenario would involve a combination of slowing revenue growth, margin compression, and a broader market selloff. If Rubrik's growth decelerates below 30% and the market re-rates the stock to a more conservative multiple, the shares could fall to the 52-week low of $42.25, representing a 60.4% decline from the current price of $106.71. The analyst low target of $110.00 offers little downside protection, and the maximum drawdown of -55.52% shows the stock's vulnerability. In this adverse scenario, investors could lose more than half their investment, emphasizing the need for careful position sizing.
FAQ
The key risks of holding RBRK include: 1) Financial risk: The company is still unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with a net loss of $41.85M in the latest quarter and negative shareholders' equity. 2) Valuation risk: The forward PE of 139.01x and EV/Sales of 14.11x are extremely high, leaving little room for error. 3) Competitive risk: Larger players like CrowdStrike and Microsoft could intensify competition, pressuring pricing and margins. 4) Macro risk: With a beta of 1.243, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns, and a 10% market decline could lead to a 12.4% drop. Additionally, the stock has a history of sharp drawdowns, with a maximum drawdown of -55.52%. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity: valuation, financial, competitive, and macro.
Our 12-month forecast for RBRK includes three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $130-$135, assuming revenue growth exceeds 40% and margins expand; Base case (55% probability) with a target range of $115-$125, assuming revenue growth moderates to 30-35% and the stock trades in line with the analyst average target of $119.81; and Bear case (20% probability) with a target range of $85-$95, assuming revenue growth decelerates to 20-25% and competitive pressures mount. The base case is the most likely, with the key assumption that Rubrik continues to execute well and maintains its growth trajectory. The analyst consensus target of $119.81 aligns with our base case, implying 12.3% upside from current levels.
RBRK appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels. The trailing PS ratio of 8.35x is significantly lower than its historical average of over 30x, suggesting that on a sales basis, the stock is not expensive relative to its own history. However, the forward PE of 139.01x and EV/Sales of 14.11x are high compared to mature software peers, reflecting the market's expectation for continued rapid growth and margin expansion. The PEG ratio of 0.41 indicates that when adjusted for growth, the valuation may be reasonable. Overall, the market is pricing in flawless execution, and any disappointment could lead to multiple compression. Relative to peers like CrowdStrike, which trades at higher multiples, RBRK's valuation is not out of line, but it is still a premium stock.
RBRK is a good buy for growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance, but it may not be suitable for conservative portfolios. The stock has strong fundamentals, including 38.99% revenue growth, 80.55% gross margins, and $306.46M in trailing free cash flow, which support a premium valuation. However, the forward PE of 139.01x and EV/Sales of 14.11x leave little room for error, and the average analyst target of $119.81 implies only 12.3% upside. The biggest downside risk is a growth slowdown, which could lead to a significant correction given the stock's beta of 1.243 and maximum drawdown of -55.52%. Therefore, it is a good buy on pullbacks to the $85-$90 support level, but at current levels, it is more of a Hold.
RBRK is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 3-5 years) given its high growth potential and the secular tailwind from AI-driven cybersecurity spending. The company is still in its growth phase, with revenue growing at 38.99% YoY and a large addressable market. However, the stock is highly volatile (beta 1.243) and does not pay dividends, so it is not suitable for income investors or those with a short-term horizon. Short-term trading could be profitable for momentum traders, but the risk of sharp drawdowns (max -55.52%) is significant. A suggested minimum holding period is 3 years to allow the company to scale and achieve sustained profitability, which should drive stock appreciation. Investors should be prepared for volatility along the way and consider dollar-cost averaging to manage risk.