RCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

$8.83

-3.92%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Red Cat Holdings is a drone technology company that integrates robotic hardware and software for military, government, and commercial operations, offering products like the Black Widow ISR drone and the WEB ground control system. It positions itself as a specialized player in the defense drone market, distinct from traditional primes, with a focus on small unmanned systems and precision strike capabilities. The current investor narrative centers on the Pentagon's Drone Dominance Program and potential U.S. government investment in domestic drone manufacturers, driving attention despite the company's ongoing losses. Recent news highlights the acquisition of Quaze Technologies to address power bottlenecks and a surge in defense spending demand, fueling debate about revenue growth versus profitability timeline.

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RCAT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $8.83
Average Target $8.83
High Target $10.15
Low Target $7.51

Wall Street consensus

Only one analyst covers Red Cat, with a Buy rating and an average price target of $11.00 (based on estimated EPS of $0.11). The current price of $8.83 implies an upside of +24.6% to the target. The consensus is bullish, but coverage is extremely limited, which is typical for small-cap stocks with high volatility and limited institutional interest. The lack of analyst coverage means less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility. The single target provides no range, so uncertainty is high. The analyst's target assumes the company can achieve its estimated revenue of $152 million and turn profitable (EPS $0.11), which would require a dramatic improvement from current losses. Given the limited coverage, investors should rely on their own due diligence and monitor for any new analyst initiations or upgrades/downgrades.

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RCAT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a clear downtrend over the past three months, with a 1-year price change of +30.2% but a 3-month decline of -28.6%. Currently trading at $8.83, it sits at 23.5% of its 52-week range ($5.77 low to $18.78 high), near the low end, suggesting a potential value opportunity but also reflecting bearish sentiment. The 1-year gain is misleading as the stock has given back most of its earlier rally, now 53% below the 52-week high. Short-term momentum is decisively negative: the 1-month change is -19.0%, and the 3-month change is -28.6%, both underperforming the S&P 500 (1-month +4.1%, 3-month +11.1%). The relative strength indicators (1-month -23.0%, 3-month -39.7%) confirm severe underperformance. This divergence from the 1-year trend signals a potential trend reversal or a temporary pullback, but the persistent selling pressure suggests caution. The 52-week low at $5.77 provides key support; a breakdown below that level would signal further downside, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $18.78. A breakout above $18.78 would indicate a resumption of the uptrend. Beta is 1.30, meaning the stock is 30% more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and losses, which is critical for risk management.

Beta

1.30

1.30x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-60.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$6-$19

Price range past year

Annual Return

+30.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRCAT ReturnS&P 500
1m-19.0%+1.8%
3m-28.6%+10.0%
6m-24.5%+8.8%
1y+30.2%+21.1%
ytd-3.6%+10.7%

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RCAT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has grown significantly but from a small base: the most recent quarter (Q3 fiscal 2026, ended Dec 2025) reported revenue of $26.2 million, up 18.7% year-over-year from $13.3 million in the prior-year quarter. However, the trajectory shows deceleration from the prior quarter's $9.6 million (Q2) and $3.2 million (Q1), indicating lumpy revenue typical of government contracts. The full-year revenue run rate is still modest, and the company remains pre-revenue in terms of profitability. The company is unprofitable, with a net loss of -$19.7 million in the latest quarter and a net margin of -74.9%. Gross margin improved to 4.2% from negative levels a year ago, but remains razor-thin, reflecting high cost of goods sold ($25.1 million vs. $26.2 million revenue). Operating margin was -91.3%, indicating heavy spending on R&D ($4.9 million) and SG&A ($20.2 million). The company has a strong balance sheet with $167.9 million in cash and minimal debt (debt-to-equity of 0.075). However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$41.9 million in the latest quarter, and the company relies on equity financing (common stock issued $3.3 million in Q3) to fund operations. ROE is -29.3%, reflecting persistent losses. The high current ratio of 15.3 suggests ample liquidity, but the cash burn rate is unsustainable without continued capital raises or a path to profitability.

Quarterly Revenue

$26235000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

N/A

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

4.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-95780997.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Product
Service

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Valuation Analysis: Is RCAT Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 23.3x, while the forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $152.1 million) is approximately 6.2x, implying the market expects significant revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward PS reflects aggressive growth expectations. Compared to the industry average (Computer Hardware sector), the PS ratio of 23.3x is a substantial premium; the sector median PS is typically around 2-3x. This premium is justified only if the company achieves its projected revenue growth and eventually reaches profitability. Historically, the PS ratio has ranged from 6.4x (Jan 2024) to 263.4x (Apr 2025), and the current 23.3x is near the lower end of its historical band, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. However, this low multiple reflects the recent price decline and ongoing losses. The PB ratio of 3.85x is also elevated relative to book value, but the negative ROE makes book value less relevant.

PE

-13.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

N/A

5-Year PE Range 17x~59x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-11.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple