Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$11.11
-8.56%
Rigetti Computing builds superconducting quantum computers and the cryogenic quantum processors that power them, selling 9-qubit to 108-qubit systems under the Novera and Cepheus brands and delivering access through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, which can be integrated into public, private, or hybrid clouds. The company is a vertically integrated, full-stack quantum pure-play — designing its own multi-chip processors and control hardware rather than relying on third-party architectures — which positions it as a differentiated but sub-scale challenger to better-capitalized rivals such as IonQ and D-Wave in the pre-commercial quantum computing industry. The current investor narrative is dominated by a binary debate over funding runway and commercialization timing: a $100 million CHIPS Act award in September 2026 validated Rigetti's strategic importance and briefly lifted the stock, but sell-side and financial media coverage continues to frame the equity as a highly speculative, milestone-dependent story with negligible revenue, persistent cash burn, and dilution risk ahead of an anticipated 2028 industry cash test. With shares down roughly 62% over the past year even as the analyst community maintains a Buy consensus, the central tension is whether government backing and technical progress can bridge the gap to meaningful commercial revenue before the balance sheet forces another capital raise.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$11.11
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RGTI Today?
Rating: Hold (speculative, position-sized). The thesis is that Rigetti is a government-validated but sub-scale quantum pure-play whose $12.98 price already embeds a large amount of optionality, and whose ~$27.8 million cash balance against a ~$28 million quarterly burn makes the next capital raise — not the technology — the dominant near-term driver. The sell-side consensus of 9 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell with a $26.69 average target (+105.6% upside) anchors the view that the recent 61.56% one-year decline has overshot what coverage supports, but the absence of any upward target revision during that drawdown means the consensus is a statement of faith in the quantum theme rather than a near-term forecast.
Supporting evidence is mixed but tilts toward 'not yet a buy at this price.' The primary metric is price-to-sales at 968x trailing (264.79x EV/sales) against a -0.86% trailing gross margin and -30.50% net margin — a multiple that has already compressed ~80% from 4,973x in Q3 2025 yet still sits orders of magnitude above the single-digit-to-low-double-digit sales multiples typical of profitable hardware peers. Revenue growth is optically strong (+185.29% YoY to $5.138 million in Q2 2026) but off a base so small that only $88,000 came from quantum-system access, and the forward consensus of ~$21.8 million implies roughly 4x growth that is not yet contracted. Profitability is deteriorating operationally: the Q2 2026 operating loss of -$28.062 million (-546.2% operating margin) widened as R&D rose to $20.728 million, and free cash flow is -$87.58 million TTM. The one genuine support is the balance sheet — debt-to-equity of 0.0131 and a current ratio of 37.42 — plus the $100 million CHIPS Act award, which is non-dilutive funding that partially offsets burn.
Three risks could invalidate the thesis: a dilutive equity raise priced near or below the $9.19 52-week low; a Q3/Q4 revenue print that fails to hold the ~$5 million quarterly level; and continued multiple compression toward even 200x sales, which would imply roughly $2.70 on current revenue. This Hold would upgrade to Buy on evidence of a funded runway past 2028 without a deeply dilutive raise — for example, a follow-on government contract or a raise at a modest premium to market — or on a decisive reclaim of the $15-$16 September consolidation shelf. It would downgrade to Sell on a break below $9.19, a gross margin that stays negative for two consecutive quarters, or a capital raise that materially exceeds the current 333.2 million share count. Valuation verdict: the stock is near the bottom of its own historical multiple band (968x vs. 4,973x peak) but remains deeply overvalued on any absolute or peer-relative measure — the compression reflects fundamental deterioration and dilution risk, not a discount worth exploiting.
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RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward view is genuinely two-sided: the sell-side range sits entirely above the $12.98 price, with even the $17.30 low target implying +33.3% upside, yet the arithmetic of $27.763 million cash against ~$28 million quarterly burn makes a dilutive raise the most probable single event in the next twelve months. Revenue is inflecting (+185.29% YoY) but off a base so small that the 968x PS multiple is capitalizing well under 1% of enterprise value in annual sales, and gross margin has swung from 42.58% to -92.08% across recent quarters, so there is no unit-economics floor to anchor valuation. The $100 million CHIPS Act award is real validation but was matched by rivals and exceeded by GlobalFoundries, so it extends runway without creating a unique moat. I would upgrade to bullish on a funded runway past 2028 without a deeply dilutive raise, or on two consecutive quarters of positive gross margin with revenue above $5 million; I would downgrade to bearish on a break below $9.19 or a raise that materially exceeds the current 333.2 million share count. At $12.98, the risk/reward is roughly balanced — the bear case governs the next 6-12 months while the bull case requires 2028 visibility that does not yet exist.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $22.77 and implied upside of +105.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$22.77
13 analysts
Implied Upside
+105.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
13
covering this stock
Price Range
$12 - $40
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust for a company of this size, with 12 analysts publishing ratings: 9 Buy, 4 Hold, and 0 Sell, yielding a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a recommendation mean of 1.69 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price of $26.69 implies roughly +105.6% upside from the current $12.98 — an unusually large gap that signals the sell-side is valuing the equity on long-horizon technology optionality rather than near-term financials. The consensus leans clearly bullish, but the magnitude of the implied upside alongside a stock down 62% over the year suggests targets have lagged the price collapse rather than led it, and investors should treat the average as a statement of faith in the quantum theme rather than a near-term price forecast.\n\nThe target range is exceptionally wide — from a low of $17.30 (+33.3% above current price) to a high of $40.00 (+208.2%) — a spread of more than 2.3x between the extremes that signals very low conviction and high uncertainty about the company's trajectory. Even the low target sits above the current price, implying analysts believe the recent selloff has overshot fundamentals, while the $40 high target likely assumes successful milestone execution, expanded government contracts, and multiple expansion on a much larger revenue base. Institutional ratings show a stable-to-supportive pattern: B. Riley reiterated Buy on November 2, 2026, Rosenblatt reiterated Buy in August and June 2026, and Mizuho, Needham, and Benchmark have all maintained Buy/Outperform ratings through 2026 with no downgrades in the visible record — but the absence of upward target revisions during a 60%+ drawdown suggests analysts are holding their thesis rather than actively re-rating the stock, leaving the wide dispersion as the clearest signal that conviction remains fragile.
Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: a ~$28 million cash balance against ~$28 million quarterly burn, 968x sales, negative and unstable gross margins, and a -73.74 percentage-point one-year relative-strength gap are hard facts, while the bull case rests on a $100 million grant, 185% growth off a $1.8 million base, and a sell-side target set ($17.30-$40.00) that has not been revised downward during a 60%+ drawdown. The bull argument is essentially an option on quantum commercialization plus government sponsorship; the bear argument is arithmetic on runway and dilution. The single most important tension is whether the CHIPS funding and any follow-on contracts extend the cash runway past the 2028 industry cash test — if Rigetti can fund operations without a deeply dilutive raise, the 968x multiple becomes a bet on a real 2027-2028 revenue ramp; if it cannot, per-share value erodes regardless of technical progress. Analyst conviction is wide but uniformly above the current price, which argues against outright dismissal, yet the absence of upward revisions during the collapse signals targets are lagging rather than leading. Net: a speculative, milestone-dependent equity where the bear case governs the next 6-12 months and the bull case requires 2028 visibility that does not yet exist.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus firmly Buy with 106% upside: All 12 covering analysts rate RGTI Buy (9) or Hold (4) with zero Sells, and the $26.69 average target sits 105.6% above the $12.98 price. Even the lowest target of $17.30 implies +33.3% upside, meaning the entire sell-side range sits above the current quote — a rare configuration that suggests the 61.56% one-year decline has overshot what fundamental coverage supports.
- $100M CHIPS Act award validates strategic role: The September 2026 $100 million CHIPS Act award is concrete, non-dilutive government validation of Rigetti's superconducting full-stack approach and provides funding that partially offsets the ~$28 million quarterly cash burn. It also positions Rigetti inside the U.S. quantum policy apparatus at a time when the 2028 industry cash test is the sector's defining risk.
- Revenue inflecting off a tiny base: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.138 million grew 185.29% year-over-year from $1.801 million, and the forward consensus of ~$21.8 million implies roughly 4x growth versus the trailing run-rate. While the base is negligible against a $6.86 billion market cap, the direction of travel is up and system sales (Novera/Cepheus) are beginning to register.
- Balance sheet carries almost no debt: Debt-to-equity is just 0.0131 and the current ratio is an extraordinary 37.42, reflecting capital raised through equity ($382.16 million in Q2 2025, $47.17 million in Q4 2025) rather than borrowings. There is no near-term solvency event from leverage, so the company's fate rests on dilution timing rather than a debt wall.
Bearish
- Cash runway of roughly one quarter: Cash stood at just $27.763 million at Q2 2026 quarter-end against a ~$28 million quarterly burn and -$87.58 million TTM free cash flow. With Q2 2026 FCF of -$27.77 million, another dilutive equity raise appears structurally necessary within quarters, not years — the single largest threat to per-share value.
- 968x sales prices in an unproven future: At 968x trailing PS (264.79x EV/sales) against a -0.86% trailing gross margin and -30.50% net margin, the market is capitalizing well under 1% of enterprise value in annual revenue. Profitable hardware peers trade at single-digit to low-double-digit sales multiples, so the premium rests entirely on quantum option value, not current economics.
- No stable unit economics: Gross margin has whipsawed from 42.58% in Q2 2026 to -28.11% in Q1 2026 to -92.08% in Q4 2025, and Q1's headline $33.1 million profit was entirely a $59.06 million other-income gain rather than operations. Q2 2026's -$52.6 million net loss on $5.1 million of revenue (-1,023.9% net margin) shows operating leverage is moving the wrong way as R&D rose to $20.7 million.
- Falling knife with 2.15 beta: The stock is down 61.56% over one year and 45.0% YTD versus the S&P 500's +12.18%, a -73.74 percentage-point relative-strength gap, with an -82.52% max drawdown from prior highs. A beta of 2.153 means daily swings roughly 2.2x the index, so a 2% SPY decline implies a ~4.3% Rigetti decline — punishing for anyone sizing on fundamentals alone.
RGTI Technical Analysis
Rigetti is in a sustained, violent downtrend, with the stock down 61.56% over the trailing year and 45.0% year-to-date, a collapse that stands in stark contrast to the S&P 500's +12.18% one-year gain (relative strength of -73.74 percentage points). At $12.98, the shares sit just 18.9% above the 52-week low of $9.19 and a staggering 62.6% below the 52-week high of $34.71 — translating to roughly 14.7% of the 52-week range, deep in the lower quartile. That positioning signals a falling-knife profile rather than a value opportunity: the stock has surrendered the entire momentum premium it commanded when it traded above $30 in late May 2026, and the -82.52% max drawdown underscores how punishing the round-trip has been for holders who bought the quantum-theme peak.\n\nShort-term momentum remains negative but is showing tentative stabilization. The one-month change of -7.48% and three-month change of -28.25% confirm the downtrend is intact, yet the one-month decline is materially shallower than the three-month decline, suggesting decelerating selling pressure rather than acceleration. The most recent session delivered a sharp +10.47% single-day rebound from $11.75 to $12.98 on elevated volume of 24.1 million shares, a countertrend bounce off the $9.85 intraday-area low set on November 5. Notably, the stock's one-month relative strength of -4.16 versus SPY is far less severe than its one-year relative strength of -73.74, hinting that the worst of the underperformance may be behind it — though a single high-volume up day is not confirmation of a trend reversal, merely a potential short-term floor.\n\nKey technical levels are well defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $9.19, with the November 5 close of $9.85 acting as the immediate floor, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $34.71 — a level so distant it is functionally irrelevant near-term, making the $15-$16 shelf (the September consolidation zone) the first meaningful overhead hurdle. A decisive break below $9.19 would signal a fresh leg lower and likely invite momentum-driven selling, whereas reclaiming $15-$16 would be the first evidence of a durable base. Volatility is extreme: beta of 2.153 means the stock is roughly 115% more volatile than the market, so position sizing must assume daily swings two-plus times the index — a 2% SPY move implies a ~4.3% Rigetti move — and the 4.37 short ratio adds squeeze potential in either direction.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-82.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$9-$32
Price range past year
Annual Return
-64.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.2% | -2.4% |
| 3m | -40.3% | -2.3% |
| 6m | -37.8% | +2.8% |
| 1y | -64.6% | +11.3% |
| ytd | -52.9% | +11.4% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue remains negligible and erratic rather than trending: Q2 2026 revenue was $5.138 million, up 185.29% year-over-year from $1.801 million in Q2 2025, but the sequential path is choppy — $4.400 million in Q1 2026 and just $1.868 million in Q4 2025 — reflecting lumpy system sales and government/cloud contracts rather than a recurring base. The segment disclosure is telling: only $88,000 was attributed to 'access to quantum computing systems,' meaning the bulk of revenue comes from hardware and development agreements that are inherently non-recurring. Against a $6.86 billion market cap, the ~$21.8 million consensus revenue estimate for the forward year implies the market is capitalizing a business that generates well under 1% of its enterprise value in annual sales — the growth trend, while optically strong off a tiny base, does not yet support the investment case on fundamentals alone.\n\nProfitability is deeply negative and structurally challenged. Q2 2026 net income was -$52.606 million on $5.138 million of revenue (a -1,023.9% net margin), with gross profit of just $2.188 million (42.58% gross margin) swamped by $30.25 million of operating expenses, including $20.728 million of R&D and $9.522 million of G&A. The operating loss of -$28.062 million (-546.2% operating margin) was compounded by a -$24.544 million non-operating charge, while Q1 2026's headline $33.109 million profit was entirely an artifact of a $59.06 million other-income gain, not operations — Q1's gross margin was actually negative at -28.11%. Gross margin has oscillated wildly (42.58% in Q2 2026, -28.11% in Q1 2026, -92.08% in Q4 2025), signaling no stable unit economics, and the trailing net margin of -30.50% and ROE of -39.58% confirm the company is far from the profitability profile typical of scaled hardware peers.\n\nThe balance sheet is the one genuine bright spot, but cash burn is the clock ticking against it. Debt-to-equity is a negligible 0.0131 and the current ratio is an extraordinary 37.42, reflecting a liquidity position built on equity issuance — $382.16 million raised in Q2 2025 and $47.17 million in Q4 2025 — rather than operating cash generation. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$87.58 million TTM, with Q2 2026 FCF of -$27.77 million (operating cash flow -$15.777 million less $11.993 million of capex), and cash stood at just $27.763 million at quarter-end after a -$20.383 million net change. ROA of -9.45% and a cash-flow-to-debt ratio of -2.05 confirm the company is entirely dependent on external financing; with roughly $28 million of cash against a ~$28 million quarterly burn, another dilutive raise appears structurally likely, which is the single largest fundamental risk to the equity.
Quarterly Revenue
$5138000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+185.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-87582000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
Because Rigetti is loss-making (trailing EPS of -$0.0315, trailing net income negative, and EBITDA of -$49.737 million in Q2 2026), the PE ratio is not meaningful — the trailing PE of -31.64 and forward PE of -63.01 are artifacts of negative earnings, and EV/EBITDA of -32.80 is likewise unusable. The appropriate primary metric is therefore the price-to-sales ratio: at 968.0x trailing sales (and 264.79x EV/sales), the stock is priced at a level that implies the market expects revenue to scale by orders of magnitude. The gap between the 968x trailing PS and the 264.79x EV/sales multiple is itself revealing — it reflects the large net cash/investment position accumulated through equity raises, meaning the enterprise is valued at roughly a quarter of the headline market cap relative to sales, yet still at an extreme absolute level.\n\nPeer comparison is difficult because the entire quantum pure-play cohort trades at speculative multiples, but the spread is still stark: Rigetti's 968x PS and 12.56x price-to-book sit alongside a negative gross margin of -0.86% (trailing) and a net margin of -30.50%, versus a sector where profitable hardware companies typically command single-digit to low-double-digit sales multiples. The PEG ratio of 0.884 is misleading given negative and unstable earnings, and the 12.56x P/B versus a book value supported largely by cash from equity issuance suggests investors are paying a substantial premium for intangible technology and government-validation optionality rather than current financial performance. Any premium here is justified only by the option value of a future quantum computing market — not by present growth, profitability, or competitive position, all of which lag better-funded rivals.\n\nHistorical context shows the multiple has compressed dramatically from its peak even as the absolute level remains extreme. The PS ratio was 4,973x in Q3 2025 and 3,673x in Q4 2025, falling to 1,253x in Q2 2026 and now 968x — a roughly 80% compression from the Q3 2025 peak, mirroring the stock's decline from above $30 to $12.98. Price-to-book has similarly fallen from 26.04x in Q3 2025 to 12.56x today. This places the stock near the bottom of its own historical valuation band, which could be read as a value opportunity — but in a pre-revenue company with negative gross margins and a ~$28 million cash balance against ~$28 million quarterly burn, multiple compression is more plausibly a reflection of fundamental deterioration and dilution risk than a discount worth exploiting.
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
18.5x
Industry PE ~18.5x*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risk is dominated by liquidity math: $27.763 million of cash at Q2 2026 against a ~$28 million quarterly burn and -$87.58 million TTM free cash flow implies roughly one quarter of runway before external financing is required, and the -$20.383 million net cash change in the quarter confirms the drain is accelerating. Revenue concentration compounds this — only $88,000 of Q2 2026 revenue came from quantum-system access, with the bulk from lumpy hardware and development agreements that swung from $1.868 million in Q4 2025 to $4.400 million in Q1 2026 to $5.138 million in Q2 2026. Margin instability (42.58% gross margin in Q2 2026 versus -28.11% in Q1 2026 and -92.08% in Q4 2025) means there is no reliable unit-economics floor, and Q2's -$52.606 million net loss included a -$24.544 million non-operating charge, so even the headline loss understates operating deterioration as R&D rose to $20.728 million. The company is therefore dependent on continued equity issuance, and each raise dilutes a share count already at 333.2 million from 184.7 million in Q4 2024.
Market and competitive risk centers on valuation compression: at 968x trailing sales and 264.79x EV/sales, the multiple has already fallen ~80% from 4,973x in Q3 2025, and there is no valuation floor in a loss-making business — further compression toward even 200x sales would imply a price near $2.70 on current revenue. Beta of 2.153 makes the stock roughly 115% more volatile than the market, so sector rotation out of speculative technology or a rise in real rates hits Rigetti disproportionately, and the 4.37 short ratio means squeezes can run in either direction. Competitive pressure is explicit in recent coverage: Motley Fool argued Rigetti's technical and revenue gap versus IonQ makes it the riskier quantum bet, and noted the $100 million CHIPS award was matched by rivals and exceeded by GlobalFoundries, undercutting the uniqueness of government validation. Regulatory and funding risk is also material — the 2028 industry cash test highlighted in July 2026 coverage means the entire cohort must secure funding to survive, and Rigetti is the sub-scale player in that race.
Worst-case scenario: a dilutive equity raise priced near or below the $9.19 52-week low, combined with a Q3/Q4 revenue print that fails to sustain the $5 million quarterly level, would likely trigger momentum-driven selling through the November 5 close of $9.85 and the $9.19 support. From $12.98, a move to the 52-week low represents roughly -29%, and a retest of the -82.52% max-drawdown profile from the $34.71 high would imply a price near $6.07, or about -53% from here. The analyst low target of $17.30 is above the current price and therefore offers no downside anchor; the realistic bear-case floor is the $9.19 low, with a break below opening a fresh leg toward single digits. An investor should size positions assuming a -30% to -50% drawdown is plausible within twelve months if financing conditions tighten.
FAQ
From a pure risk/reward standpoint, RGTI is a balanced-to-unfavorable bet at $12.98: the entire analyst range ($17.30 low to $40.00 high, $26.69 average) sits above the current price, implying at least +33.3% and up to +105.6% upside, and all 12 covering analysts rate it Buy (9) or Hold (4) with zero Sells. Against that, the company held just $27.763 million of cash at Q2 2026 against a ~$28 million quarterly burn and -$87.58 million TTM free cash flow, making another dilutive raise the most probable single event in the next twelve months. The biggest downside risk is a raise priced near or below the $9.19 52-week low, which would represent roughly -29% from here before any fundamental deterioration. It is a reasonable buy only for investors with high risk tolerance, a multi-year horizon, and a position size small enough to absorb a -30% to -50% drawdown — and preferably staged on evidence of funded runway or sustained positive gross margin rather than bought outright at current levels.