Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$15.17
+0.13%
Rigetti Computing, Inc. designs and manufactures superconducting quantum computers and the quantum processors that power them, selling 9-qubit to 108-qubit systems under the Novera and Cepheus brands and delivering access through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, which can be integrated into public, private, or hybrid clouds. The company operates as a vertically integrated pure-play in the emerging quantum computing industry, distinguishing itself from peers by fabricating its own superconducting chips at its Fremont, California facility while maintaining a global footprint spanning the UK, Australia, Canada, and India. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between strategic validation and commercial immaturity: a $100 million CHIPS Act award and a broader $2 billion federal quantum funding package have ignited speculative enthusiasm, yet Rigetti generated only $5.1 million in quarterly revenue with no near-term path to profitability. Debates now center on cash runway ahead of an anticipated 2028 industry funding test, heavy insider selling across the quantum sector ($857 million over two years with virtually no buying), and whether government backing can bridge the gap to commercial viability before dilution or consolidation becomes unavoidable.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$15.17
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RGTI Today?
Rating: Hold. Rigetti is a pre-revenue, cash-burning quantum computing pure-play with a $6.86 billion market cap supported almost entirely by government validation and long-term optionality, not current fundamentals. The analyst consensus 'buy' rating and average target of $28.525 imply 87% upside, but this is offset by a 968x PS ratio, imminent dilution risk, and a 56.92% one-year decline. The risk/reward is balanced only for investors with very high risk tolerance and a multi-year horizon.
Supporting evidence for a Hold: revenue grew 185% YoY to $5.138 million in Q2 2026, but net margin was -1,023.9% and free cash flow was -$27.77 million. The balance sheet is debt-free (D/E 0.0131) but cash of $27.763 million covers less than one quarter of burn. Analyst targets range from $17.30 to $40.00, a 131% spread, reflecting high uncertainty. The $100 million CHIPS Act award provides non-dilutive capital but is not unique—competitors received similar awards. At 968x sales, the stock prices in flawless execution and rapid commercialization, leaving no margin of safety.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis: a dilutive equity raise before revenue scales, failure to convert government grants into recurring commercial contracts, and a breakdown below the 52-week low of $12.53. The rating would upgrade to Buy if Rigetti demonstrates two consecutive quarters of positive gross margin above 40% and a clear path to cash flow breakeven, or if the stock falls below $10 (implying a PS below 600x). It would downgrade to Sell if cash falls below $15 million without a funding announcement, or if revenue growth decelerates below 100% YoY. Relative to its own history (PS ranged from 41x to 4,973x) and peers, RGTI is overvalued on current fundamentals but fairly valued on long-term optionality—a speculative hold at best.
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RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
Rigetti presents a high-risk, binary investment case. The bull argument rests on government validation ($100M CHIPS Act), rapid revenue growth, and analyst targets implying significant upside. However, the bear case is equally compelling: extreme valuation (968x sales), imminent dilution, no path to profitability, and a broken technical trend. The base case (50% probability) assumes continued revenue growth but a dilutive raise and range-bound trading. I would upgrade to bullish if Rigetti announces a large commercial contract and demonstrates a clear path to cash flow breakeven, or if the stock falls below $10 with an improved risk/reward. I would downgrade to bearish if cash falls below $15 million without a funding announcement or if revenue growth decelerates below 100% YoY.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $28.52 and implied upside of +88.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$28.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+88.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $40
Analyst target range
Twelve analysts cover Rigetti, and the consensus leans bullish with a recommendation mean of 1.69 (where 1.0 is a Strong Buy and 2.0 is a Buy) and an overall "buy" rating. The average target price is $28.525, implying +87.0% upside from the current price of $15.25, while the low target of $17.30 still implies +13.4% upside and the high target of $40.00 implies +162.3% upside. The fact that even the most conservative analyst target sits above the current price signals that the sell-side views the recent decline as an overshoot rather than a fundamental breakdown, though the bullish consensus must be weighed against the stock's -56.92% one-year return and the reality that targets have not prevented severe drawdowns.
The target range of $17.30 to $40.00 represents a spread of $22.70, or roughly 149% of the low target, indicating high uncertainty about Rigetti's commercial trajectory. The high target of $40.00 likely assumes successful execution on government contracts, accelerating system deliveries, and multiple expansion as quantum computing gains mainstream adoption, while the low target of $17.30 prices in continued cash burn, dilution risk, and a slower path to commercial revenue. Institutional ratings show a consistent pattern of reiterations rather than upgrades or downgrades — Rosenblatt, Needham, Mizuho, and Benchmark have all maintained Buy/Outperform ratings through 2026, with B. Riley's upgrade from Neutral to Buy in January 2026 the only notable rating change. This stability suggests analysts are anchored to the long-term quantum thesis, but the absence of fresh upgrades and the wide target dispersion caution that conviction is not uniform, and the stock remains a high-risk, binary bet on an unproven commercial model.
Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to Rigetti's extreme valuation (968x sales), imminent dilution risk from a $27.8 million cash balance against $27.8 million quarterly burn, and a broken technical trend. The bull case rests on government validation ($100M CHIPS Act), 185% revenue growth, and analyst targets implying 87% upside, but these are forward-looking and speculative. The single most important tension is whether government funding and commercial contracts can scale revenue fast enough to justify the valuation before cash runs out—a binary outcome that will determine the stock's fate. Until there is clear evidence of recurring, high-margin revenue and a sustainable cash runway, the risk/reward remains skewed to the downside.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus sees 87% upside: Twelve analysts cover RGTI with a consensus 'buy' rating (mean 1.69) and an average target of $28.525, implying +87.0% upside from $15.25. Even the lowest target of $17.30 sits 13.4% above the current price, suggesting the sell-side views the 56.92% one-year decline as an overshoot.
- Revenue accelerating 185% YoY: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.138 million grew 185.29% year-over-year from $1.801 million, with sequential acceleration from $1.868 million in Q4 2025 to $4.400 million in Q1 2026. This trajectory, if sustained, could rapidly shrink the extreme PS multiple.
- Debt-free balance sheet with high liquidity: Debt-to-equity is just 0.0131 and the current ratio is 37.42, reflecting a capital structure funded almost entirely by equity. This provides flexibility to fund R&D without near-term solvency risk, though cash burn remains a concern.
- $100M CHIPS Act award validates technology: The $100 million CHIPS Act award and a broader $2 billion federal quantum funding package provide non-dilutive capital and strategic validation. This government backing could bridge the gap to commercial viability and attract further contracts.
Bearish
- Extreme valuation at 968x sales: The trailing PS ratio of 968.0x and EV/Sales of 361.5x are astronomically above the hardware sector's typical low-to-mid single-digit multiples. Even with 185% revenue growth, the market cap of $6.86 billion implies expectations of revenue scaling 4-5x just to bring the multiple into triple digits.
- Cash burn implies imminent dilution: Q2 2026 free cash flow was -$27.77 million against a cash balance of only $27.763 million, meaning the company burns roughly its entire cash reserve each quarter. With TTM FCF of -$87.58 million, Rigetti will likely need to raise capital within months, diluting existing shareholders.
- No path to profitability; margins erratic: Q2 2026 net income was -$52.606 million on $5.138 million revenue, a net margin of -1,023.9%. Gross margin swung from -92.08% in Q4 2025 to 42.58% in Q2 2026, and R&D of $20.728 million consumed over four times revenue, showing no sustainable unit economics.
- Insider selling wave signals caution: Quantum sector insiders have sold $857 million in stock over two years with virtually no buying, per a June 2026 report. This lack of insider confidence, especially at Rigetti, is a red flag for retail investors and suggests limited faith in near-term commercial success.
RGTI Technical Analysis
Rigetti is in a pronounced downtrend that has partially stabilized into a wide, volatile range. The stock is down 56.92% over the past year and 35.38% year-to-date, massively underperforming the S&P 500's +15.01% and +12.86% respective gains, with a relative strength of -71.93 over 12 months. At $15.25, the shares sit just 5.9% above the 52-week low of $12.53 and 73.8% below the 52-week high of $58.15, placing the current price at roughly 6.0% of the 52-week range — a positioning that reflects deep pessimism and a broken long-term trend rather than a momentum-driven extension. The maximum drawdown of -77.1% underscores the severity of the de-rating from the early-2026 highs near $27 and the prior peak at $58.15.
Short-term momentum is diverging from the longer-term collapse. The stock has gained 2.56% over the past month and 7.47% over six months, even as it fell 14.99% over three months and 56.92% over a year, producing a positive 1-month relative strength of +1.97 versus SPY's +0.59%. This pattern — a stabilizing 1-month trend against a deeply negative 1-year trend — suggests a potential mean-reversion bounce or base-building phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal, especially given the stock's failure to hold above $20 since June. Volume of roughly 13.7 million shares indicates active speculative participation, and the 3.83 short ratio implies bears have not fully capitulated, leaving room for either a short squeeze or renewed selling pressure.
Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week range. Support rests at the $12.53 low, with a breakdown below that level signaling a fresh leg lower and potential capitulation toward single digits; resistance sits at the $58.15 high, though intermediate resistance around $20-$22 (the May-June consolidation zone) must be reclaimed before the longer-term downtrend can be considered broken. A beta of 2.01 means the stock is roughly twice as volatile as the S&P 500, so a 10% market move implies a ~20% swing here — a critical consideration for position sizing, as even a modest portfolio allocation carries outsized risk. The combination of extreme volatility, a 3.83 short ratio, and a price pinned near 52-week lows creates a high-torque setup where directional conviction must be matched with strict risk controls.
Beta
2.03
2.03x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-77.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$58
Price range past year
Annual Return
-63.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.2% | +1.2% |
| 3m | -10.3% | +4.5% |
| 6m | +6.0% | +14.6% |
| 1y | -63.6% | +16.0% |
| ytd | -35.7% | +14.3% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Rigetti's revenue trajectory is improving off a tiny base but remains commercially insignificant. Q2 2026 revenue of $5.138 million grew 185.29% year-over-year from $1.801 million in Q2 2025, and the sequential progression from $1.868 million in Q4 2025 to $4.400 million in Q1 2026 to $5.138 million in Q2 2026 shows genuine acceleration. However, the revenue segment disclosure reveals that only $88,000 — roughly 1.7% of quarterly revenue — came from access to quantum computing systems, meaning the bulk of sales are likely one-off system and government-contract deliveries rather than recurring, high-margin cloud revenue. With full-year 2026 estimated revenue averaging just $221.3 million across analyst models (a range of $163.0 million to $336.3 million), the growth story is real but the absolute scale remains far too small to support the current $6.86 billion market capitalization on fundamentals alone.
Profitability remains deeply negative, with margins that are erratic and structurally challenged. Q2 2026 net income was -$52.606 million on $5.138 million of revenue, a net margin of -1,023.9%, while gross margin swung to 42.58% from -28.11% in Q1 2026 and -92.08% in Q4 2025 — a volatile pattern driven by lumpy hardware deliveries and cost-of-revenue fluctuations rather than improving unit economics. Operating income was -$28.062 million with operating margin of -546.2%, and research and development spending of $20.728 million consumed more than four times quarterly revenue, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of quantum hardware development. The company's trailing net margin of -30.50% and operating margin of -11.94% (per the valuation dataset) mask the far worse quarterly reality, and with EPS of -$0.16 in Q2 2026 and estimated forward EPS of -$0.153, there is no visible inflection toward profitability.
The balance sheet is Rigetti's strongest asset, but cash burn is the critical risk. The current ratio of 37.42 and debt-to-equity of just 0.0131 reflect a virtually debt-free capital structure funded by equity issuance — including $382.16 million raised in Q2 2025 and $47.17 million in Q4 2025 — but cash at the end of Q2 2026 stood at only $27.763 million, down from $48.146 million in Q1 2026. Free cash flow was -$27.77 million in Q2 2026 and -$87.58 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, with operating cash flow of -$15.777 million and capital expenditures of -$11.993 million, meaning the company burns roughly $28 million per quarter against a $27.8 million cash balance — implying an imminent need for additional financing. ROE of -39.58% and ROA of -9.45% confirm that shareholder capital is being consumed rather than compounded, and the negative FCF yield (price-to-free-cash-flow of -231.8x) signals that internal cash generation is nowhere near funding the business.
Quarterly Revenue
$5138000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+185.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-87582000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
Because Rigetti's trailing net income is negative (-$52.606 million in Q2 2026) and EBITDA is also negative (-$52.606 million), the PE ratio is not meaningful and the appropriate primary metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio stands at an extraordinary 968.0x, while the forward PE of -74.03x confirms that analysts expect continued losses; the EV/Sales multiple of 361.5x and EV/EBITDA of -32.80x further illustrate that the market is pricing in a future revenue stream that does not yet exist. The gap between the trailing PS of 968.0x and the forward-looking revenue estimates implies the market expects revenue to grow roughly 4-5x from current levels just to bring the multiple into triple digits, reflecting enormous growth expectations embedded in the price.
Relative to the broader Technology sector and the Computer Hardware industry, Rigetti trades at a staggering premium on every available metric. A PS ratio of 968.0x compares to typical hardware-sector PS multiples in the low-to-mid single digits, a premium of well over 100x, while the PB ratio of 12.56x and PEG ratio of 0.884 (distorted by negative earnings) offer little conventional support. The premium is not justified by current profitability — gross margin of -0.86% (per the valuation dataset) and net margin of -30.50% are far below sector norms — but rather by the optionality of quantum computing as a potentially transformative technology and Rigetti's receipt of a $100 million CHIPS Act award. Investors are effectively paying for a call option on quantum commercialization, not for present cash flows.
Historically, Rigetti's valuation has been extraordinarily volatile. The PS ratio ranged from 41.0x in Q1 2023 to 4,973.0x in Q3 2025, and the PB ratio has swung from 0.59x in Q4 2022 to 26.04x in Q3 2025, with the current 12.56x sitting in the middle of that wide band. The current PS of 968.0x is below the Q3 2025 peak of 4,973.0x but still far above the 2023-2024 range of 41x-196x, suggesting the stock is neither at its historical valuation extreme nor at a bargain level. The market is pricing in optimistic long-term expectations — government funding, commercial contracts, and eventual profitability — but any disappointment on those fronts would leave the multiple exposed to severe compression given the absence of earnings support.
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Rigetti's financial and operational risks are severe. The company burned $27.77 million in free cash flow in Q2 2026 alone, against a cash balance of just $27.763 million, implying an urgent need for financing. With TTM FCF of -$87.58 million and no debt capacity (debt-to-equity of 0.0131), future funding will likely come from equity issuance, diluting shareholders. Revenue is highly concentrated in one-off system and government-contract deliveries—only $88,000 (1.7%) of Q2 revenue came from quantum computing system access—so recurring, high-margin cloud revenue is virtually nonexistent. Margins are erratic (gross margin swung from -92.08% to 42.58% in two quarters), and R&D of $20.728 million per quarter exceeds revenue by 4x, ensuring continued losses.
Market and competitive risks are amplified by Rigetti's extreme valuation and high beta. The stock trades at 968x trailing sales and 361.5x EV/Sales, leaving no room for execution missteps; any disappointment could trigger a violent multiple compression. Competition from IonQ, D-Wave, and GlobalFoundries—which also received government grants—means Rigetti's $100 million CHIPS Act award is not a unique advantage. The beta of 2.01 means a 10% market decline could translate to a 20% drop in RGTI, and sector rotation away from speculative tech would hit quantum stocks disproportionately. Recent news highlights a $857 million insider selling wave across quantum peers, signaling waning confidence and potential overhang.
In a worst-case scenario, Rigetti fails to secure additional funding before cash runs out, forcing a highly dilutive equity raise or strategic alternatives. If government contracts are delayed or commercial adoption stalls, revenue could remain below $10 million annually, making the current $6.86 billion market cap unsustainable. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $12.53 (a -17.8% decline from $15.25) and potentially break below to single digits, representing a -35% to -50% loss from current levels. The maximum drawdown of -77.1% from the 52-week high of $58.15 illustrates the severity of prior de-rating, and a similar move from $15.25 would imply a price below $3.50. Investors face a realistic downside of -35% to -50% in an adverse scenario, with the possibility of permanent capital loss if the company fails to commercialize.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: Rigetti burned $27.77 million in Q2 2026 against a cash balance of $27.763 million, implying an urgent need for dilutive financing. Second, competitive risk: IonQ, D-Wave, and GlobalFoundries also received government grants, so Rigetti's $100 million CHIPS Act award is not unique, and larger competitors could win commercial contracts. Third, macro risk: with a beta of 2.01, a 10% market decline could cause a 20% drop in RGTI, and sector rotation away from speculative tech would hit quantum stocks hard. Fourth, company-specific risk: insider selling of $857 million across the quantum sector over two years signals waning confidence, and the stock's 56.92% one-year decline reflects a broken trend.
Our 12-month forecast has three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) targets $40-$58.15, assuming successful commercial contracts and additional government funding. Base case (50% probability) targets $17.30-$28.525, assuming continued revenue growth but a dilutive capital raise and range-bound trading. Bear case (25% probability) targets $8-$12.53, assuming funding failure or delayed commercialization. The base case is most likely, with a key assumption that Rigetti raises $100-200 million in equity, increasing share count by 10-20%, and revenue grows to approximately $221 million in 2026 as per analyst estimates. The wide target range reflects high uncertainty.
RGTI is significantly overvalued on current fundamentals, trading at a trailing PS ratio of 968x and EV/Sales of 361.5x, compared to hardware sector multiples in the low-to-mid single digits. The market is pricing in future revenue that does not yet exist, with a $6.86 billion market cap against $5.138 million quarterly revenue. However, relative to its own history, the PS ratio has ranged from 41x to 4,973x, so the current 968x is not the peak. The valuation implies the market expects revenue to grow 4-5x just to bring the multiple into triple digits, which is a high bar. Until recurring revenue scales, the stock remains overvalued.
RGTI is not a good buy for most investors due to its extreme valuation (968x sales), imminent dilution risk, and lack of profitability. However, for speculative investors with high risk tolerance, the analyst consensus target of $28.525 implies 87% upside, and the $100 million CHIPS Act award provides validation. The biggest downside risk is a dilutive equity raise or failure to commercialize, which could send the stock below its 52-week low of $12.53. A small position (e.g., 1-2% of a portfolio) might be justified as a long-term call option on quantum computing, but only if you can stomach a potential 50%+ loss.
RGTI is suitable only for long-term, speculative investment with a minimum holding period of 3-5 years, as the quantum computing industry is unlikely to reach commercial maturity before 2028. The stock has a beta of 2.01, no dividend, and highly volatile earnings, making it unsuitable for short-term trading unless you are a momentum trader. The company's cash runway of less than one quarter means near-term dilution is likely, which could depress the stock for years. For long-term investors, the thesis depends on quantum computing becoming a mainstream technology, which is a binary outcome. A small allocation with a 5-year horizon is the only prudent approach.