Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$16.53
-1.49%
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a pioneer in the quantum computing industry, designing and manufacturing superconducting quantum processors and selling quantum computing systems under the Novera and Cepheus trade names, with revenue derived from both hardware sales and cloud-based quantum computing services. As a pure-play quantum computing company, Rigetti is a niche player competing with tech giants and other startups like IBM, Google, and IonQ, but it differentiates itself through its full-stack approach, from chip design to cloud integration. The current investor narrative is dominated by the company's high-risk, high-reward profile: while it has secured significant government funding (e.g., $100 million from the Trump administration) and benefits from sector-wide enthusiasm around quantum breakthroughs, it remains pre-commercial with no near-term profitability, and insider selling has raised red flags. The stock has been extremely volatile, with a 52-week range of $12.53 to $58.15, reflecting the speculative nature of the quantum sector and the market's shifting sentiment on its commercial timeline.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$16.53
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RGTI Today?
Rating: Hold. Rigetti is a speculative buy for high-risk-tolerant investors, but the current risk/reward is balanced. The consensus 'Buy' rating and average target of $29.65 suggest upside, yet the extreme valuation and lack of profitability warrant caution. The thesis hinges on successful commercialization and continued government support, which are uncertain.
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RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting the balanced risk/reward. While the growth potential is significant, the valuation is stretched, and the company's financials are weak. The stance would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates and margins improve, or downgrade to bearish if cash burn worsens or funding dries up.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $29.65 and implied upside of +79.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$29.65
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+79.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$20 - $40
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is moderate, with 12 analysts covering the stock, and the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.69 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $29.65, implying a 98.3% upside from the current price of $14.95, but the range is wide: the low target is $20.00 (33.8% upside) and the high target is $40.00 (167.6% upside), indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target likely assumes successful commercialization and government funding, while the low target reflects the risk of dilution and cash burn. Recent ratings have been positive, with firms like Rosenblatt, Mizuho, and Needham maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings, but the wide target spread and the speculative nature of the sector suggest that these targets are highly uncertain and could be revised sharply.
Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
Rigetti presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative investment. The bull case rests on explosive revenue growth, government backing, and a strong analyst consensus, while the bear case highlights an astronomical valuation, persistent losses, and insider selling. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the extreme valuation and lack of profitability, but the stock's potential for quantum breakthroughs could quickly shift sentiment. The most critical tension is whether Rigetti can scale revenue to justify its $6.86B market cap before cash runs out, as any delay in commercialization could trigger a severe de-rating.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 198.9% YoY to $4.4M, driven by initial hardware sales and government contracts. This demonstrates early commercial traction and validates the full-stack quantum computing model.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: 12 analysts rate RGTI a 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.69 (1=Strong Buy). The average price target of $29.65 implies 98.3% upside from the current $14.95, reflecting optimism about future growth.
- Government Funding Validation: Rigetti secured $100M from the Trump administration, a significant endorsement of its technology. This non-dilutive capital extends its cash runway and supports R&D efforts through 2028.
- Healthy Balance Sheet: With a current ratio of 37.4 and minimal debt (debt-to-equity of 0.013), Rigetti has ample liquidity to fund operations. The company raised substantial capital, reducing near-term bankruptcy risk.
Bearish
- Astronomical Valuation: At $14.95, RGTI trades at 968x trailing sales and 30x forward sales, far above the sector average of ~10x. This pricing assumes explosive growth that may not materialize, leaving little room for error.
- Persistent Losses and Cash Burn: TTM net income is -$180M, with negative operating margins of -11.9%. Free cash flow is -$81.6M, and the company is burning cash rapidly, requiring continuous dilution or funding to survive.
- Insider Selling Red Flag: Insiders at quantum companies, including RGTI, have sold $857M in stock over two years with virtually no buying. This signals a lack of confidence from those with the most knowledge of the company's prospects.
- Nascent Commercial Adoption: Revenue is minuscule and lumpy; Q4 2025 revenue was only $1.87M, down from Q3's $1.95M. The largest revenue segment, 'Access to quantum computing systems,' generated just $55K in Q1 2026, indicating minimal commercial traction.
RGTI Technical Analysis
Rigetti's stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +3.1% masking a severe drawdown from its highs; the current price of $14.95 is near the bottom of its 52-week range, sitting at only 5.4% above the 52-week low of $12.53 and 74.3% below the 52-week high of $58.15. This positioning near the lows suggests that the market has priced in significant pessimism, but the stock's high beta of 1.957 indicates that it remains a high-volatility play, and the lack of fundamental support makes it a falling knife rather than a clear value opportunity. The stock's 6-month price change of -17.7% and YTD change of -36.7% confirm a persistent downtrend, with the price consistently making lower lows and lower highs since its peak in late 2025.
Beta
2.02
2.02x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-77.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$58
Price range past year
Annual Return
+3.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.1% | +2.8% |
| 3m | -12.7% | +4.2% |
| 6m | -6.7% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +3.4% | +21.5% |
| ytd | -30.0% | +12.7% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Rigetti's revenue is growing but from a tiny base: Q1 2026 revenue was $4.4 million, up 198.9% YoY from $1.47 million in Q1 2025, but the absolute numbers are minuscule, and the growth is lumpy—Q4 2025 revenue was only $1.87 million, down from Q3's $1.95 million. The company's revenue is heavily dependent on government contracts and a few customers, with the largest segment being 'Access to quantum computing systems' at just $55,000 in the latest quarter, indicating that commercial adoption is still nascent. The growth trajectory is positive but not yet meaningful, and the company's ability to scale revenue to justify its $6.86 billion market cap is highly uncertain.
Quarterly Revenue
$4400000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+198.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-28.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-81648000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
Given that Rigetti has negative net income (TTM net income is -$180 million), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, and at 968x trailing sales, the stock is trading at an astronomical premium to any reasonable industry benchmark. The forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $223 million for the next year, would be around 30x, which still implies a massive premium to the sector average of ~10x for established tech companies, but the gap reflects the market's expectation of explosive growth. The PEG ratio of 0.88 is misleading because it uses a growth rate that is not sustainable, and the negative PE ratios (-31.6x trailing, -74.3x forward) confirm that the company is not profitable and will not be for the foreseeable future.
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~21x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Rigetti faces significant risks from its heavy cash burn and reliance on external funding. With TTM free cash flow of -$81.6M and net income of -$180M, the company is burning through its balance sheet, which had a current ratio of 37.4 but will require repeated dilution or debt issuance to sustain operations. The negative gross margin of -86.1% in the latest quarter indicates that hardware sales are currently unprofitable, and the lumpy revenue pattern (Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87M vs. Q1 2026's $4.4M) underscores the unpredictability of its commercial pipeline. Additionally, the company's dependence on government contracts (e.g., $100M from the Trump administration) creates concentration risk, as any policy shift could jeopardize future funding.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial: cash burn of -$81.6M FCF and negative gross margins, requiring constant dilution. 2) Competitive: tech giants like IBM and Google, plus startups like IonQ, are racing ahead. 3) Macro: high beta of 1.96 makes the stock sensitive to market downturns. 4) Company-specific: insider selling of $857M in the sector signals lack of confidence. The most severe risk is a cash crunch leading to bankruptcy or massive dilution.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain. The bull case (25% probability) targets $25-$40, driven by successful commercialization and sector momentum. The base case (50% probability) targets $20-$25, assuming steady but unspectacular progress. The bear case (25% probability) targets $10-$15, if funding dries up or technology fails. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock trading around the analyst average of $29.65, but the wide range reflects the speculative nature.
RGTI is significantly overvalued based on traditional metrics. The PS ratio of 968x is astronomical compared to the sector average of ~10x, and the forward PS of 30x still implies a massive premium. The PEG ratio of 0.88 is misleading due to unsustainable growth rates. The market is pricing in explosive growth and a leadership position in quantum computing, which may or may not materialize. Given the lack of profitability and tiny revenue base, the stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals.
RGTI is a high-risk, high-reward speculative buy. The analyst consensus is 'Buy' with an average target of $29.65, implying 98.3% upside, but the stock trades at 968x trailing sales, reflecting extreme optimism. The biggest downside risk is the company's cash burn and reliance on future funding. It could be a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, but only as a small position. For conservative investors, it's better to avoid.
RGTI is more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, given its pre-revenue stage and volatile price action. The stock has a beta of 1.96, making it unsuitable for short-term trading unless one can stomach extreme swings. The company's success depends on technological breakthroughs and commercial adoption, which could take 5-10 years. A minimum holding period of 5 years is recommended to allow the quantum computing industry to develop. Short-term traders may find opportunities, but the risk is substantial.