Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Analysis of RGTI

Technical Analysis RGTI has experienced severe price deterioration, plunging over 50% in three months and demonstrating extreme volatility. Trading near its 52-week low with a maximum drawdown of -73%, the stock appears deeply oversold but lacks clear technical support. The persistent downtrend and weak relative strength signal substantial downside risk without evident bullish catalysts.

Fundamentals The company is in an early investment phase, with minimal revenue and deeply negative profit margins due to high R&D spending. While liquidity is strong with negligible debt, operations are inefficient, reflected in poor returns on equity and assets. Negative cash flow indicates ongoing cash burn, highlighting dependency on external funding to sustain growth efforts.

Valuation & Risk Traditional valuation metrics are negative due to consistent losses, making fair value assessment challenging. The stock's high beta and extreme volatility underscore significant market risk, compounded by low liquidity. Without clear profitability or sector benchmarks, the investment case relies heavily on speculative future growth.

Investment Recommendation Based on the analysis, RGTI is not recommended for purchase at this time. The stock exhibits severe technical weakness, unprofitability, and high volatility without compensating growth or valuation support. Investors should await concrete improvements in fundamentals or stabilizing price action before considering exposure. This high-risk profile suits only speculative investors with ample risk tolerance.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for RGTI is highly speculative and carries significant risk.

Key Catalysts: The primary potential catalyst would be a major positive development from its R&D efforts that demonstrates a clear path to future revenue generation. Success in securing additional funding without punitive dilution could also provide a temporary boost in sentiment.

Potential Risks: The risks are substantial and include continued cash burn, failure to achieve technological or commercial milestones, potential dilution from future fundraising, and persistent negative momentum in the stock price due to a lack of investor confidence.

Target Price & Outlook: Given the absence of analyst targets and the deeply negative fundamentals, establishing a target price range is not feasible. The stock appears to be purely sentiment-driven. While it is technically oversold and could see a sharp bounce on any positive news, the overarching trend is negative. Investors should expect extreme volatility, with the potential for further declines outweighing the likelihood of a sustained recovery in the next 12 months. Awaiting evidence of fundamental improvement is prudent.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $16.60, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, RGTI has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

RGTI has experienced severe and prolonged weakness, significantly underperforming the market over the past year due to its substantial price declines. The stock exhibits high volatility, as confirmed by its elevated beta.

Short-term performance is extremely weak, with the stock plunging 36.88% over one month and 50.35% over three months. This deep underperformance is quantified by a Relative Strength of -50.33% against the market, indicating it has lost approximately half its value relative to the benchmark during this period.

Currently priced at $15.59, RGTI sits closer to its 52-week low of $6.86 than its high of $58.15, suggesting the stock is deeply oversold but lacking clear support. The maximum drawdown of -73.42% over the past year underscores the magnitude of the downtrend and the significant risk that remains.

RGTI demonstrates minimal revenue growth with just $1.9 million in Q3 2025, while profitability metrics reveal severe challenges. The company maintains a gross profit margin of 21% but operates at deeply negative operating (-1,055%) and net profit margins (-10,322%) due to substantial R&D expenses and other losses. This indicates the company is in an early-stage investment phase rather than a profitable operating business.

The company exhibits exceptional liquidity with current and quick ratios exceeding 39, supported by a cash ratio of 2.25, indicating strong short-term financial flexibility. However, the cash flow to debt ratio of -1.82 and negative operating cash flow per share of -$0.04 suggest cash burn despite minimal debt levels. The near-zero debt ratio of 0.012 confirms negligible leverage but highlights reliance on equity funding to sustain operations.

Operational efficiency metrics show significant challenges, with return on equity at -54% and return on assets at -32%, reflecting poor capital utilization. The extremely low asset turnover of 0.003 and fixed asset turnover of 0.032 indicate ineffective use of the company's asset base to generate revenue. These metrics collectively point to substantial operational inefficiencies and the early-stage nature of the business.

Valuation Level

RGTI exhibits negative valuations across all key metrics due to its lack of profitability. The negative TTM and Forward PE ratios, along with the deeply negative EV/EBITDA, indicate the company is currently generating losses rather than earnings. Therefore, traditional metrics cannot classify the stock as overvalued or undervalued, but instead signal a financially distressed or early-stage growth company.

Peer Comparison

A comparative valuation analysis is not possible as the necessary industry average data is unavailable. Without industry benchmarks for metrics like PE or EV/EBITDA, it is impossible to contextualize RGTI's negative valuation multiples relative to its sector peers. The assessment remains solely based on the company's standalone, unprofitable financials.

Based on the provided metrics, RGTI demonstrates significant volatility risk. The beta of 1.704 indicates the stock is approximately 70% more volatile than the broader market, suggesting it is highly sensitive to market swings. This elevated risk is confirmed by the substantial maximum drawdown of -73.42% over the past year, meaning the stock lost nearly three-quarters of its value from its peak, highlighting a high potential for severe capital depreciation.

Regarding other risks, the notable absence of reported short interest is atypical and could signal very low liquidity or limited trading activity, which can itself be a risk factor as it may lead to wider bid-ask spreads and difficulty entering or exiting positions. While the lack of a large short position reduces the immediate threat of a short squeeze, the primary concern remains the stock's extreme price volatility and the magnitude of its recent decline, posing a substantial challenge for risk management.