Rivian Automotive, Inc.

Based on the provided data, here is a comprehensive analysis of RIVN.

Technical Analysis Rivian's stock has shown impressive momentum, significantly outperforming the market over the last three months. However, this comes with high volatility, evidenced by a substantial historical drawdown and a high beta. The current price is in the middle of its 52-week range, suggesting it is neither strongly overbought nor oversold from a technical perspective.

Fundamental Analysis The company demonstrates strong revenue growth, which is a positive sign of market demand. The primary concern is a complete lack of profitability, with deeply negative margins and cash burn. While it maintains a solid cash position for now, its negative interest coverage ratio highlights the financial strain of its current operations.

Valuation & Risk Valuation is challenging as traditional metrics are negative; the stock appears priced for high future growth rather than current fundamentals, which carries inherent risk. The most significant risk is its extreme volatility and the ongoing cash burn required to fund operations before achieving profitability.

Recommendation

RIVN is a high-risk, high-potential investment suitable only for investors with a corresponding risk tolerance. The stock is a bet on the company's long-term ability to successfully scale production and achieve profitability, which is not guaranteed. While the recent momentum and growth story are compelling, the current fundamentals do not support a buy recommendation for most investors. It is recommended to monitor the company's path to profitability closely rather than initiating a position at this time.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for RIVN stock:

12-Month Outlook for RIVN

Over the next 12 months, Rivian's outlook is heavily dependent on its execution against key catalysts, primarily the successful launch of its more affordable R2 platform and demonstrating a clear path toward reducing its significant cash burn. The potential for strategic partnerships or government policy support provides additional upside. However, the primary risks remain substantial, including intense competition, persistent macroeconomic pressures on consumer spending, and the looming need for additional capital if the path to profitability lengthens. Given the current lack of analyst consensus on a target price and the stock's high volatility, investors should expect a wide trading range, likely between $14 and $27, as the market reacts to quarterly production and delivery figures alongside updates on cost-cutting measures.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $16.67, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, RIVN has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Rivian's stock has demonstrated exceptional short-term performance with substantial gains, notably outperforming the broader market over the past three months. Despite this strong rally, it remains susceptible to high volatility, as evidenced by its significant maximum drawdown over the past year.

The stock has delivered impressive short-term returns, surging 14.73% over one month and a remarkable 44.0% over three months. This performance significantly outpaces the market, with a relative strength of 40.63%, indicating strong investor momentum. However, the high beta of 1.776 suggests these gains come with elevated volatility risk.

Currently trading at $18.85, RIVN sits near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($10.36 to $22.69), suggesting it is neither strongly overbought nor oversold based on this metric. The substantial recovery from its low indicates strong buying interest, but the memory of a 31.21% drawdown highlights the stock's inherent risk and the importance of the recent high around $22.69 as a key resistance level.

Revenue & Profitability: Rivian continues to exhibit strong revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching $1.56 billion, a significant increase from $1.30 billion in the prior quarter. However, profitability remains deeply negative, with a gross profit margin of -3.1% and a net income margin of -75.3%, indicating the company is still burning substantial cash on each vehicle sold before accounting for massive operating expenses.

Financial Health: The company maintains a solid liquidity position with a current ratio of 2.71 and a cash ratio of 1.30, supported by substantial cash reserves. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98 appears manageable, the critically low interest coverage ratio of -14.25 and negative free cash flow per share of -$0.35 highlight significant cash burn and an inability to service debt from operating earnings.

Operational Efficiency: Operational metrics reveal substantial challenges, with a return on equity of -23.2% and a return on assets of -7.7%, reflecting inefficient use of capital. The asset turnover of 0.10 and fixed asset turnover of 0.29 indicate poor utilization of the company's substantial manufacturing assets, which is typical for early-stage automotive manufacturers scaling production but remains a key area for improvement.

1. Valuation Level

Rivian's valuation metrics indicate significant challenges, as both its trailing and forward PE ratios are negative due to net losses, rendering traditional earnings-based valuation ineffective. The PB ratio of 4.62 and PS ratio of 4.02 are elevated, suggesting the market is pricing in high growth expectations despite current unprofitability. The negative EV/EBITDA of -20.484 further confirms substantial operational losses, while a PEG ratio above 6 signals overvaluation relative to its growth prospects, pointing to an overheated stock price.

2. Peer Comparison

Without specific industry average data for comparison, a definitive peer assessment is constrained. However, Rivian’s negative earnings and high PS ratio likely exceed norms for the automotive sector, where established players often maintain positive EBITDA and lower sales multiples. This disparity underscores Rivian’s premium valuation being driven by growth potential rather than current fundamentals, emphasizing higher risk in the absence of profitability.

Of course. Here is a risk analysis for RIVN based on the provided metrics.

The equity exhibits significant volatility and directional risk, as indicated by its high Beta of 1.776. This suggests the stock is approximately 78% more volatile than the broader market, meaning it is likely to experience larger price swings both upward and downward. This heightened volatility is further confirmed by the substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -31.21%, demonstrating a history of severe peak-to-trough declines that pose a considerable risk to capital.

Beyond pure price volatility, the lack of reported short interest is a noteworthy but double-edged data point. While it implies that professional investors are not currently betting aggressively on the stock's decline, which can be viewed positively, it may also mask underlying risks. The absence of a short interest figure could be related to specific reporting standards or, more critically, could indicate challenges with stock borrow liquidity, potentially making it difficult for investors to exit large positions efficiently during market stress.