RKLB

Rocket Lab

$119.95

+4.58%
Jun 4, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Rocket Lab is a vertically integrated space company that designs, manufactures, and operates launch vehicles and spacecraft, providing end-to-end mission services for civil, defense, and commercial markets. It is a leading disruptor in the small satellite launch sector, competing with its Electron rocket and developing the larger Neutron vehicle to challenge incumbents. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on explosive growth driven by major new government contracts, particularly in missile defense, and strategic acquisitions, fueling a dramatic stock price surge as the company capitalizes on heightened interest in the public space sector ahead of SpaceX's anticipated IPO.

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RKLB 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $119.95
Average Target $119.95
High Target $137.9425
Low Target $101.9575

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rocket Lab's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $155.94 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$155.94

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$96 - $156

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

A cohort of 7 analysts provides coverage, with a consensus that leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional actions including upgrades from Morgan Stanley to Overweight and maintained Buy ratings from Needham and Stifel. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the high level of institutional interest and recent positive rating actions suggest analyst sentiment is supportive, though the wide target price range implied by varying estimates signals high uncertainty around execution and valuation. The limited number of covering analysts, relative to mega-caps, is typical for a high-growth, high-volatility story like Rocket Lab, contributing to the stock's pronounced price swings.

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RKLB Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 424.6% one-year price change, and is currently trading at approximately 95% of its 52-week high of $151.00, indicating extreme momentum and potential overextension. Recent momentum has accelerated sharply, with a 86.3% gain over the past month and a 107.6% gain over three months, far outpacing the broader market (SPY up 6.3% and 10.3% over the same periods), signaling intense speculative buying. Key technical levels are the 52-week high at $151.00 serving as immediate resistance and the 52-week low at $25.24 as distant support; a breakout above resistance would confirm the bullish trend, while the stock's beta of 2.31 indicates it is over 130% more volatile than the market, necessitating outsized risk tolerance for investors.

Beta

2.31

2.31x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-43.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$25-$151

Price range past year

Annual Return

+345.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRKLB ReturnS&P 500
1m+52.3%+4.6%
3m+71.1%+12.6%
6m+144.5%+10.4%
1y+345.7%+27.0%
ytd+57.8%+11.0%

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RKLB Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is accelerating dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue of $179.7 million representing a 35.7% year-over-year increase, and sequential quarterly revenue has climbed from $122.6 million in Q1 to $179.7 million in Q4, indicating robust demand. The company remains unprofitable with a Q4 net income of -$52.9 million, but gross margin improved to 38.0% from 28.7% in Q1 2025, showing progress on operational efficiency, though the operating margin was -28.4%. Financially, the balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 4.08 and low debt-to-equity of 0.15, but free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$321.8 million TTM, indicating the company is still burning significant cash to fund its aggressive growth and capital expenditures.

Quarterly Revenue

$179652000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.35%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.37%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-321806000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Product
Service

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Valuation Analysis: Is RKLB Overvalued?

Given the negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, which stands at a lofty 61.5x on a trailing basis. This valuation represents an extreme premium to typical industrials, justified only by hyper-growth expectations, as forward analyst revenue estimates of $2.59 billion for the next fiscal year imply a significant revenue ramp. Historically, the current PS ratio of 61.5x is near the top of its own historical range, which has fluctuated wildly from 21.1x in mid-2024 to over 222.3x in late 2025, indicating the market is currently pricing in near-perfect execution of its growth and contract wins.

PE

-186.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -347x~434x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-234.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple