Starbucks
SBUX
$105.95
-0.59%
Starbucks Corp is the world's largest and most recognizable coffee brand, operating a global network of nearly 41,000 company-operated and licensed cafes across over 80 countries. The company is a dominant market leader in the premium coffeehouse segment, distinguished by its powerful brand, extensive global footprint, and a highly customizable beverage platform. The current investor narrative is centered on a significant operational turnaround gaining momentum, as evidenced by recent strong earnings beats and raised guidance, though this is juxtaposed against concerns over the high costs of the transformation and a stock that has already rallied substantially.…
SBUX
Starbucks
$105.95
Related headlines
SBUX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Starbucks's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $137.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$137.74
20 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
20
covering this stock
Price Range
$85 - $138
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 14 analysts, indicating strong institutional interest. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, with recent actions including several 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings from firms like Barclays, BTIG, and Wolfe Research, though there have been cautious notes like RBC Capital's downgrade to 'Sector Perform'. The average target price implied by EPS estimates is $4.26, but a specific consensus price target is not provided in the data; therefore, calculating implied upside is not possible with the given figures. The target range for estimated EPS is $4.02 (low) to $4.59 (high), representing a spread of about 14%. The high end of this range assumes successful margin recovery and sustained revenue growth from the turnaround, while the low end likely factors in continued cost pressures or a slower-than-expected operational improvement. The recent institutional rating actions show a pattern of reaffirmation of bullish stances post-earnings in late January, followed by a notable downgrade from RBC in March, signaling some divergence in analyst views on the sustainability of the rally and valuation.
SBUX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +29.13% and a 6-month gain of +30.95%. With a current price of $105.9, it is trading at approximately 98.5% of its 52-week high of $107.52, indicating it is testing the upper bounds of its recent range and signaling strong momentum but also potential overextension. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with the stock up 17.11% over the past month and 15.17% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's gains of 9.98% and 4.14% over the same periods, respectively. This divergence from the longer-term trend suggests a powerful breakout phase, likely fueled by positive earnings catalysts. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $77.99, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $107.52; a decisive breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. With a beta of 0.944, the stock exhibits slightly less volatility than the broader market, which is notable given its recent sharp moves, suggesting the rallies are driven by strong company-specific fundamentals rather than broad market beta.
Beta
1.01
1.01x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$78-$108
Price range past year
Annual Return
+21.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SBUX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.7% | +8.2% |
| 3m | +9.5% | +9.0% |
| 6m | +25.0% | +10.5% |
| 1y | +21.9% | +26.5% |
| ytd | +26.2% | +8.9% |
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SBUX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been positive but shows signs of deceleration and volatility in profitability. The most recent quarterly revenue was $9.91 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.43%. However, examining sequential quarters reveals a trend: revenue grew from $8.76B (Q2 2025) to $9.46B (Q3) to $9.57B (Q4) to the current $9.91B (Q1 2026), indicating a steady, if modest, recovery trajectory. The company is profitable but facing significant margin pressure. Net income for Q1 2026 was $293.3 million, yielding a net margin of 2.96%, a sharp decline from the 8.31% net margin in Q1 of the prior year. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 15.63%, down substantially from 24.49% a year ago, indicating severe cost inflation or promotional activity compressing profitability. The balance sheet shows a highly leveraged structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.29 (indicating negative shareholder equity), but it generates robust operating cash flow. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is a healthy $2.34 billion, providing ample liquidity to fund operations and its dividend, which had a payout ratio of 149.3% based on the latest quarterly data, though this high ratio is likely a temporary artifact of depressed earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.05%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.15%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SBUX Overvalued?
Given that Net Income is positive ($293.3M in the latest quarter), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is extremely high at 52.58x, while the forward P/E is 35.11x, indicating the market expects a significant recovery in earnings over the next twelve months. Compared to sector averages, Starbucks trades at a premium. Its forward P/E of 35.11x is well above typical restaurant industry averages (often in the low-to-mid 20s), and its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.63x and EV/EBITDA of 22.5x also suggest a premium valuation. This premium is likely justified by the market's belief in the durability of its brand, its global scale, and the potential success of its ongoing turnaround strategy. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been volatile. The current trailing P/E of 52.58x is near the top of its recent historical range, which has seen figures as low as 18.4x and as high as 183.5x over the past few years. Trading near historical highs suggests the market is pricing in a successful execution of the turnaround and a return to stronger profitability, leaving little room for error.
PE
52.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 18x~184x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
22.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple

