NuScale Power Corporation

Based on a comprehensive analysis of SMR, the stock carries substantial risk and is not currently recommended for investment.

From a technical perspective, SMR is in a pronounced downtrend with severe losses and extreme volatility, showing no clear signs of a sustained recovery. Fundamentally, the company's operational health is deeply concerning, with profitability collapsing and cash flow deeply negative, despite a strong, debt-free balance sheet. The valuation is challenging to justify due to the lack of earnings, and the stock's high beta indicates it is prone to amplified losses during market downturns.

Considering the combination of persistent operational weaknesses, extreme price volatility, and the absence of a clear turnaround catalyst, investors should avoid this stock until there is definitive evidence of improved financial performance and stabilized price action.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a 12-month outlook, SMR presents a highly unfavorable risk-reward profile. The key negative catalysts are the continued poor operational performance, including collapsing profitability and negative cash flow, which show no immediate signs of reversing. The primary risk is the stock's extreme volatility and high beta, which could lead to significant further losses, especially during any broader market weakness.

Given the absence of analyst targets and a clear path to recovery, downside risk appears substantial. A realistic target range is challenging to define, but the current downtrend suggests the stock could re-test lower price levels. Investors should await concrete evidence of a fundamental turnaround before considering a position.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about NuScale Power Corporation's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $17.68, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, SMR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

SMR has experienced dramatic downside momentum over the past year, characterized by severe losses and high volatility.

The stock's performance has been exceptionally weak in the short term, declining 10.7% in one month and plunging 50.7% over three months, significantly underperforming the market by 53.64%. This high-beta stock has demonstrated amplified negative volatility compared to the broader market's movements.

Currently trading at $17.57, SMR sits approximately 69% below its 52-week high but 59% above its 52-week low. While it remains closer to its yearly lows than highs, the extreme 1-year max drawdown of -73.48% underscores that the stock remains in a deeply distressed state.

Revenue & Profitability SMR's Q3 revenue showed modest sequential growth to $8.2 million, but profitability deteriorated sharply with operating losses expanding from -$43 million to -$538 million quarter-over-quarter. The net income margin collapsed to -33.2% from -2.2% in Q2, primarily driven by a massive increase in general and administrative expenses. This dramatic expense surge indicates significant operational challenges despite stable revenue performance.

Financial Health The company maintains a strong liquidity position with current and quick ratios of 1.62, supported by a cash ratio of 0.91. Notably, SMR carries no debt with zero debt ratios across all metrics, providing financial flexibility. However, the operating cash flow per share of -$1.35 reflects substantial cash outflow from operations that will pressure the company's cash reserves over time.

Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency metrics are severely challenged, with return on equity at -33.0% and return on assets at -30.9% indicating poor capital utilization. The asset turnover ratio of 0.009 suggests inefficient use of assets to generate revenue, while the negative cash conversion cycle of -6,396 days reflects extended supplier payment terms rather than operational efficiency. These metrics collectively point to fundamental operational weaknesses.

Valuation Level: SMR's negative TTM and forward P/E ratios indicate the company is currently unprofitable, making traditional P/E valuation metrics ineffective for assessing overvaluation or undervaluation. The persistently negative EV/EBITDA further underscores significant earnings challenges, suggesting the stock cannot be meaningfully evaluated on earnings-based multiples alone.

Peer Comparison: Without industry average data, a direct peer comparison is not feasible. However, SMR's negative earnings multiples and elevated PB ratio of 11.4 imply it trades at a substantial premium to book value despite its lack of profitability. This combination typically signals higher risk relative to profitable industry peers.

Volatility Risk: SMR exhibits exceptionally high volatility risk, evidenced by a Beta of 2.159, indicating it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market. The stock's maximum drawdown of -73.48% over the past year further underscores its extreme downside risk.

Other Risks: While the absence of reported short interest suggests limited speculative pressure from short sellers, the stock faces significant liquidity and concentration risks. The extreme volatility and low trading volume common in such securities can lead to sharp price dislocations.