NuScale
SMR
$9.27
-0.22%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), offering a proprietary technology that aims to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free power. As the first SMR technology to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, NuScale holds a distinct first-mover advantage in a nascent but potentially transformative segment of the nuclear energy industry. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to commercialize its VOYGR plants amid growing demand for clean, reliable power from data centers and industrial users, yet it is also marked by significant skepticism due to commercialization delays, mounting losses, and intense competition from rivals like X-Energy and Oklo, which have recently captured government support under Project Prometheus.…
SMR
NuScale
$9.27
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Based on the analysis, the recommendation is a Hold. The consensus rating is 'Hold' with an average price target of $12.63, implying an upside of about 36% from the current price. However, the extreme valuation and lack of commercial progress warrant caution.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bearish due to the severe revenue contraction, extreme valuation, and competitive setbacks. The company's fundamentals do not support the current valuation, and the lack of commercial progress is a major red flag. However, the potential for a breakthrough contract could change the narrative, so the stance is not overly bearish. Upgrades to neutral would occur if NuScale announces a binding order, while a downgrade to strongly bearish would happen if cash reserves deplete or a major project fails.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.63 and implied upside of +36.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+36.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
NuScale is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' and a mean recommendation score of 2.56 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $12.63, implying an upside of approximately 36% from the current price of $9.29. The distribution of ratings includes a mix of Buy, Hold, and Sell, with notable Sell ratings from Citigroup and a Buy from B. Riley Securities, indicating a lack of consensus on the stock's direction. The average target suggests that analysts see some recovery potential, but the wide range of opinions reflects the high uncertainty surrounding the company's commercial prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative opportunity. The bull case rests on its first-mover regulatory advantage, strong balance sheet, and the potential for massive revenue growth if it can secure binding contracts. However, the bear case is compelling: revenue is collapsing, valuation is extreme, and the company was excluded from key government support. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, given the lack of commercial traction and the competitive setbacks. The most critical tension is whether NuScale can convert its pipeline into firm orders; if it does, the stock could re-rate significantly, but if not, the downside is severe.
Bullish
- First-Mover Advantage in SMR: NuScale is the first SMR technology to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, a significant regulatory milestone that provides a competitive edge. This approval is a key differentiator that could facilitate faster commercialization and customer adoption.
- Strong Balance Sheet with No Debt: NuScale has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0 and a current ratio of 4.3, indicating a strong liquidity position with no debt burden. This financial stability provides a cushion to fund operations and development without the risk of insolvency in the near term.
- Potential for Massive Revenue Growth: Analysts estimate revenue could reach $1.49 billion in the next fiscal year, implying a forward PS ratio of only 3.5x. If NuScale can secure binding orders and execute on its pipeline, the stock could see substantial upside from current levels.
- Growing Demand for Clean Energy: The increasing demand for carbon-free power from data centers and industrial users presents a significant market opportunity for NuScale's SMR technology. Recent news highlights optimism about data center demand, which could drive future contract wins.
Bearish
- Severe Revenue Decline: Q1 2026 revenue was just $0.565 million, a 95.8% year-over-year decline from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. This sharp drop reflects the company's inability to secure consistent commercial contracts, raising doubts about its near-term viability.
- Extremely High Valuation: The trailing PS ratio is 73.7x, which is exceptionally high and implies the market is pricing in explosive growth that has not materialized. This leaves little room for error, and any disappointment could lead to severe de-rating.
- Exclusion from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably excluded from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which favored competitors like X-Energy and Oklo. This signals fading government support and could put NuScale at a competitive disadvantage in securing future contracts.
- Persistent Losses and Cash Burn: NuScale reported a net loss of $44 million in Q1 2026, and free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was -$753 million. The company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate, and without significant revenue, it may need to raise capital, diluting shareholders.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -74.5% and a 52-week range of $7.21 to $57.42. The current price of $9.29 sits near the lower end of this range, at approximately 4.2% above the 52-week low, indicating that the stock is trading near its lowest levels and reflecting a persistent bearish sentiment. This positioning suggests that the market is pricing in significant pessimism, but it also raises the possibility of a value opportunity if the company can execute on its long-term strategy, though the falling knife risk remains high.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-73.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.1% | +2.7% |
| 3m | -33.5% | +1.0% |
| 6m | -26.1% | +12.0% |
| 1y | -73.2% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -43.2% | +12.5% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and currently contracting, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of just $0.565 million, a 95.8% year-over-year decline from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. This sharp drop reflects the company's transition from early-stage contracts to a period of limited commercial activity, as it has yet to secure a binding order for its SMR plants. The multi-quarter trend shows extreme volatility, with revenue ranging from $0.475 million in Q3 2024 to $34.224 million in Q4 2024, but overall, the company remains in a pre-revenue phase, making it difficult to assess a sustainable growth trajectory. The lack of consistent revenue underscores the speculative nature of the investment, as the company's future depends on securing large-scale contracts that have not yet materialized.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given that NuScale has negative net income and negative EBITDA, the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio, which stands at 73.7x trailing revenue. This is an exceptionally high multiple, reflecting the market's expectation of explosive future growth, but it also highlights the extreme valuation risk if revenue fails to scale as anticipated. The forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $1.49 billion for the next fiscal year, would be approximately 3.5x, implying that the market is pricing in a massive revenue ramp that is far from guaranteed. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that investors are betting on a dramatic inflection point, but the lack of concrete orders makes this a highly speculative assumption.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. NuScale's revenue is highly erratic and currently contracting, with Q1 2026 revenue down 95.8% year-over-year to just $0.565 million. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of $44 million in Q1 2026 and negative EBITDA of -$46.4 million. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was -$753 million, indicating a severe cash burn rate. While the company has no debt and a current ratio of 4.3, its reliance on external funding to sustain operations is a major risk, as continued dilution could erode shareholder value.