NuScale Power Corporation
SMRNuScale Power Corporation designs and develops small modular nuclear reactors, operating in the fabricated plate work industry.
It is a nuclear technology pioneer focused on advancing safer, scalable, and commercially viable carbon-free power solutions.
Updated: January 16, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Of course. Here is a comprehensive analysis of SMR.
Technical Analysis: SMR is in a pronounced and severe downtrend. The stock has dramatically underperformed the market, losing over half its value in the past three months alone. While the steep decline might suggest the stock is oversold, there is no technical evidence of a reversal, indicating the downward momentum could continue.
Fundamental Analysis: The company's fundamentals are critically weak. Despite modest revenue growth, SMR is burning a significant amount of cash, with operating losses far exceeding its total revenue. Key efficiency metrics like Return on Equity and Return on Assets are deeply negative, confirming the company is destroying shareholder value and faces severe operational challenges.
Valuation & Risk: From a valuation perspective, SMR appears overvalued based on its sales and book value, especially when contrasted with its complete lack of profitability. The primary risk is extreme volatility; the stock is more than twice as volatile as the broader market and has experienced devastating drawdowns, making it a highly speculative and dangerous investment.
Recommendation: Based on the analysis, *avoid buying SMR*. The combination of a strong technical downtrend, critically weak profitability, and extreme price volatility presents an unacceptable level of risk for most investors. The stock exhibits characteristics of a value trap, where a low price does not compensate for the fundamental operational failures and high potential for further losses.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the comprehensive analysis and current price of $19.23, the 12-month outlook for SMR is highly negative.
Key Catalysts: A sustained turnaround would require a dramatic operational improvement, specifically a path to significant cash flow generation and profitability. A major contract win or technological breakthrough would be necessary to change the current narrative.
Potential Risks: The primary risks are severe and include continued cash burn leading to potential liquidity issues, the persistence of value-destroying operations, and extreme price volatility that could lead to further substantial losses.
Target Price Range: Given the bearish analysis citing fundamental failure and a strong downtrend, identifying a specific target is challenging. However, the overwhelming evidence suggests the potential for the current price to face significant downward pressure. A price significantly below current levels appears more likely than a recovery, unless the fundamental picture changes radically.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about NuScale Power Corporation's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $20.19, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
Overall, SMR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Bank of America Upgrade: Analyst upgrade to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' signals improved sentiment despite price target reduction
- Nuclear Sector Renaissance: AI boom driving massive power demands and increasing interest in advanced nuclear technology
- Regulatory Approval Progress: SMR technology gaining traction with NRC approvals and major partnerships advancing
- Recent Strong Performance: Stock surged 15% on nuclear optimism and gained 13% over three months
- Long-term Growth Potential: Small modular reactor technology positioned to benefit from clean energy transition
Bearish
- Significant Stock Decline: Stock lost more than half its value, down 50% from previous levels
- Share Dilution Concerns: B. Riley flagged concerns over potential doubling of share count impacting value
- Premarket Weakness: Recent premarket declines reflect ongoing doubts about SMR commercialization timeline
- Competition Intensifying: Valuation risks remain as nuclear sector becomes increasingly competitive
- Execution Uncertainty: Questions persist about company's ability to successfully deploy SMR technology
SMR Technical Analysis
SMR has experienced severe underperformance with substantial declines across all measured timeframes. The stock has significantly lagged the broader market, demonstrating extreme volatility and deep losses over the past year.
The stock's short-term performance remains deeply negative, declining 9.38% over one month and plummeting 52.65% over three months. This dramatic underperformance is starkly illustrated by its Relative Strength of -56.02% versus the market, confirming its severe weakness has been both persistent and pronounced.
Currently trading at $19.23, SMR sits just 73.6% above its 52-week low of $11.08 but remains 66.5% below its high of $57.42. Despite the catastrophic decline over the past year, the stock appears oversold on an absolute basis but shows no technical evidence of reversing its pronounced downtrend.
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +17.9% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -55.9% | +4.4% |
| 6m | -46.1% | +10.9% |
| 1y | -8.1% | +15.7% |
| ytd | +23.8% | +1.2% |
SMR Fundamental Analysis
Of course. Here is a concise analysis of SMR's fundamentals based on the provided data.
1. Revenue & Profitability
SMR has demonstrated modest revenue growth, increasing from $8.05 million in Q2 to $8.24 million in Q3. However, its profitability is critically weak, with the gross profit margin falling from 22.1% to 32.9% and the company reporting deeply negative operating and net income margins. The substantial operating loss of $538 million in Q3, dwarfing its revenue, indicates a severe issue with cost control and profitability unrelated to its core operations.
2. Financial Health
The company's liquidity position appears adequate with a current ratio of 1.62 and a cash ratio of 0.91, suggesting it can cover short-term obligations. Notably, the data indicates a debt ratio of 0%, signifying no reliance on debt financing. However, the extreme negative operating cash flow per share of -$1.35 raises significant concerns about its cash burn rate and long-term sustainability without additional financing.
3. Operational Efficiency
Operational efficiency is profoundly negative, as reflected in the alarming return on equity (ROE) of -32.98% and return on assets (ROA) of -30.95%. These metrics indicate that the company is destroying shareholder value and is highly inefficient in generating profits from its asset base. The negative returns suggest fundamental operational challenges that outweigh the marginal top-line growth.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Based on the provided metrics, SMR appears to be in a distressed financial position. The negative trailing and forward P/E ratios, as well as the negative EV/EBITDA, indicate the company is currently unprofitable and burning cash. Furthermore, the exceptionally high price-to-sales ratio of 185.02 and price-to-book ratio of 12.83 suggest the current stock price is severely disconnected from the company's underlying revenue generation and asset base, pointing to significant overvaluation from a fundamental perspective.
Without specific industry average data for a peer comparison, a definitive relative valuation is not possible. However, the extreme nature of SMR's multiples—particularly the negative earnings and cash flow metrics—would likely place it as a significant outlier in virtually any industry. The valuation signals extreme financial stress, making it challenging to compare meaningfully with stable, profitable peers.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk
SMR exhibits extremely high volatility risk, evidenced by its Beta of 2.132, which indicates the stock is more than twice as volatile as the broader market. This heightened sensitivity to market swings is further confirmed by a severe maximum drawdown of -73.48% over the past year, representing substantial peak-to-trough losses that significantly elevate its risk profile for investors.
Other Risks
Despite the absence of notable short interest, the extreme price volatility and large drawdown suggest potentially low liquidity, which can exacerbate price swings and create challenging entry/exit points for traders. The lack of short interest does not mitigate the fundamental risks posed by the stock's erratic price behavior and the potential for limited market depth.
FAQs
Bearish. SMR is not a good buy now due to its severe operational and financial distress. The company is deeply unprofitable with negative cash flow, its stock is in a persistent downtrend with extreme volatility, and its valuation appears disconnected from its weak fundamentals. This stock is only suitable for highly speculative, risk-tolerant investors betting on a distant turnaround in the nuclear sector.
Based on the provided data, SMR stock is severely overvalued.
Key valuation metrics like the price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 185.02 and price-to-book (PB) ratio of 12.83 are astronomically high compared to virtually any profitable industry average. The profoundly negative P/E and forward P/E ratios confirm the company is deeply unprofitable.
The overvaluation stems from a complete disconnect between the stock price and the company's fundamental performance. Despite modest revenue growth, SMR is burning cash at an alarming rate, as evidenced by massive operating losses and negative returns on equity and assets (-32.98% and -30.95%, respectively). The market price appears to be factoring in unrealistic future growth expectations that are not supported by the current financial distress.
Of course. Based on the provided data, here is a professional risk assessment of holding SMR stock.
Key Risks of Holding SMR Stock
1. Severe Profitability and Operational Risk: The company is hemorrhaging money, with an operating loss of $538 million on only $8.24 million in revenue, indicating a fundamentally unsustainable business model and an alarming inability to control costs relative to its scale. 2. Extreme Price Volatility Risk: The stock's beta of 2.13 signifies it is more than twice as volatile as the market, which is confirmed by a maximum drawdown of -73.48%, posing a high risk of significant and rapid capital depreciation. 3. Persistent Negative Momentum Risk: The stock has severely underperformed the market across all measured timeframes (e.g., -52.65% over three months), with a Relative Strength of -56.02%, indicating powerful and sustained selling pressure with no technical evidence of a trend reversal. 4. Financial Health and Liquidity Risk: Despite having no debt, the company's deeply negative operating cash flow and substantial losses raise grave concerns about its cash burn rate and long-term solvency, increasing the risk of needing dilutive financing to continue operations.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of SMR's deeply negative fundamentals and the absence of analyst targets, the forecast for 2026 is highly speculative and bearish. A base case target range could be $5-$10, predicated on the company's severe cash burn and value-destroying operations leading to further devaluation without a radical turnaround. A bull case of $15-$20 would require the successful execution of 2-3 key growth drivers, such as a major, profitable government contract award, a breakthrough in reactor design that drastically reduces costs, and a successful capital raise to fund operations to profitability.
The main assumptions are that the current operational losses and negative cash flow persist, and that the company faces significant challenges in securing new financing or contracts. It is critical to note the extreme uncertainty of this forecast; SMR's stock is highly volatile and faces existential risks, meaning the actual price in 2026 could be substantially lower, including the potential for minimal value if the company cannot achieve sustainability.