NuScale
SMR
$9.18
-6.52%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), offering its proprietary NuScale Power Module (NPM) technology that aims to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free power. As the first SMR technology to receive U.S. regulatory approval, NuScale holds a distinct first-mover advantage in a nascent but potentially transformative segment of the nuclear energy industry. However, the company is currently at a critical juncture, facing significant commercialization delays, mounting losses, and intense competition from rivals like X-Energy and Oklo, which have recently gained government backing through initiatives like Project Prometheus. Investor sentiment is sharply divided, with some seeing long-term potential in the 6-gigawatt SMR program, while others question the company's ability to execute and achieve profitability before its cash reserves run dry.…
SMR
NuScale
$9.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Rating: Hold. NuScale is a high-risk speculative stock with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and an average analyst target of $13.37, implying a 36.2% upside from the current price of $9.82. The thesis is that while the company has first-mover advantages and a massive potential market, the lack of revenue and intense competition make it too risky for most investors. The stock is suitable only for those with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bearish due to the extreme valuation, collapsing revenue, and competitive setbacks. While the 6-GW program offers a potential catalyst, the lack of tangible progress and high cash burn make the risk-reward unfavorable. The stance would upgrade to neutral if NuScale secures a binding contract or shows a clear path to revenue growth. A downgrade to strongly bearish would occur if the company announces a major project cancellation or runs low on cash without a funding plan.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $13.17 and implied upside of +43.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$13.17
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+43.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $6.00 to a high of $20.00, indicating a wide dispersion of expectations. The low target of $6.00 implies a 38.9% downside from the current price, likely pricing in continued cash burn, commercialization delays, and potential dilution. The high target of $20.00 suggests a 103.7% upside, assuming successful execution of the 6-GW SMR program and a favorable regulatory environment. The wide spread between the low and high targets underscores the extreme uncertainty and speculative nature of the stock, with analysts' estimates for EPS ranging from -$0.65 to -$0.07 for the next fiscal year, reflecting vastly different assumptions about revenue recognition and cost control. This divergence suggests that investors should approach the stock with caution, as the market has not yet reached a consensus on NuScale's ability to commercialize its technology.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative opportunity. The bull case rests on its first-mover regulatory advantage and the massive 6-GW program, which could transform the company if executed. However, the bear case is compelling: revenue is collapsing, valuation is extreme, and the company faces intense competition and fading government support. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, given the lack of tangible revenue progress and the stock's technical weakness. The most critical tension is whether NuScale can convert its pipeline into firm contracts and achieve commercialization before cash reserves deplete. If it secures a binding 6-GW contract, the stock could re-rate significantly; otherwise, it risks continued decline toward the analyst low target of $6.00.
Bullish
- First-Mover Regulatory Approval: NuScale's SMR technology is the first to receive U.S. regulatory approval, providing a significant competitive moat. This approval de-risks the technology and positions NuScale as a pioneer in the nascent SMR market, potentially attracting early adopters and strategic partnerships.
- Massive 6-GW Program Potential: The 6-gigawatt SMR deployment program, while non-binding, represents a historic opportunity. If converted to a firm contract, it could generate substantial revenue, with analysts estimating revenue potential up to $2.69 billion, a massive leap from current levels.
- Strong Balance Sheet: NuScale holds a debt-to-equity ratio of 0 and a current ratio of 4.3, indicating a strong liquidity position. This financial stability provides a runway to fund operations and development without immediate solvency concerns, despite ongoing losses.
- Data Center Demand Catalyst: Recent news highlights optimism about data center demand for SMRs, which could drive future contracts. The stock jumped 12% on such sentiment, showing that positive catalysts can quickly re-rate the stock, offering upside potential.
Bearish
- Revenue Collapse and No Recurring Base: Q1 2026 revenue plunged 95.8% YoY to just $565,000, from $13.375 million a year earlier. This erratic and contracting revenue stream indicates a lack of stable commercial traction, making it difficult to justify the current valuation.
- Extreme Valuation Premium: The trailing P/S ratio of 73.7x and EV/Sales of 123.5x are astronomically high, even for a growth company. This implies the market is pricing in massive future revenue, leaving no room for error; any disappointment could trigger a severe de-rating.
- Exclusion from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably excluded from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which favored competitors like X-Energy and Oklo. This signals fading government support and a competitive disadvantage, potentially limiting future funding and contracts.
- Persistent Losses and Cash Burn: The company's net margin is -11,302.6%, and free cash flow TTM is -$753.5 million. With negative EPS of -$0.27 in Q1 2026, NuScale is burning cash at an unsustainable rate, raising concerns about future dilution or funding needs.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having lost 78.0% over the past year, with the current price of $9.82 sitting just 13.6% above its 52-week low of $7.21 and a staggering 82.9% below its 52-week high of $57.42. This positioning near the lows suggests persistent selling pressure and a lack of buyer conviction, reflecting the market's skepticism about the company's near-term prospects. The stock's beta of 2.306 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, amplifying both downside and upside moves, which is critical for risk management.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-76.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.5% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -23.5% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -41.0% | +11.7% |
| 1y | -76.7% | +21.3% |
| ytd | -43.7% | +13.4% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and currently contracting sharply, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of just $565,000, a 95.8% year-over-year decline from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. This collapse reflects the company's transition from early-stage contracts to a pre-commercialization phase, with revenue dependent on sporadic milestones. The multi-quarter trend shows extreme volatility: Q2 2025 revenue was $8.054 million, Q3 2025 was $8.242 million, Q4 2025 was $1.808 million, and Q1 2026 fell to $0.565 million, indicating no stable revenue base. The company's growth story hinges entirely on future SMR deployments, but the lack of recurring revenue makes it difficult to value on a fundamental basis.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given NuScale's negative net income and EBITDA, the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, as earnings-based multiples are meaningless. The trailing P/S ratio stands at 73.7x, while the EV/Sales ratio is even more extreme at 123.5x, reflecting the market's willingness to pay a premium for future revenue potential despite current minimal sales. The forward P/S is not directly provided, but the gap between the trailing P/S and the negative forward P/E of -15.7x implies that the market expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, though the lack of profitability remains a major concern.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are severe. NuScale's revenue is minuscule and highly volatile, with Q1 2026 revenue of just $565,000, a 95.8% YoY decline. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a net margin of -11,302.6% and negative free cash flow of -$753.5 million TTM. While the balance sheet is strong (debt-to-equity of 0, current ratio of 4.3), the cash burn rate is unsustainable, and the company may need to raise capital, leading to dilution. The lack of recurring revenue makes financial forecasting nearly impossible, and any delay in commercialization could force the company to seek additional funding at unfavorable terms.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: severe cash burn with free cash flow of -$753.5 million TTM, leading to potential dilution; 2) Competitive risk: exclusion from Project Prometheus and competition from X-Energy and Oklo; 3) Market risk: high beta of 2.306 and a 78% decline over the past year, indicating high volatility; 4) Execution risk: the 6-GW program is non-binding, and any delays or cancellations could crush the stock. The most severe risk is the failure to commercialize, which could lead to a decline to the analyst low target of $6.00, a 38.9% loss.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain. In the bull case (20% probability), the stock could reach $15-$20, driven by a binding 6-GW contract. In the base case (50% probability), it trades around $10-$14, in line with the analyst average target of $13.37. In the bear case (30% probability), it falls to $6-$8, due to continued delays and cash burn. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming no major positive or negative catalysts. Investors should monitor contract announcements and quarterly earnings for signs of progress.
NuScale is significantly overvalued based on current fundamentals. The trailing P/S ratio of 73.7x and EV/Sales of 123.5x are extreme, especially given that revenue is contracting, down 95.8% YoY in Q1 2026. The market is pricing in a massive revenue ramp, with analysts estimating average revenue of $1.39 billion, but this is highly speculative. Compared to peers, NuScale trades at a premium, and the negative forward P/E of -15.7x indicates the market expects losses to continue. The stock is only justified if the 6-GW program becomes a reality, but until then, it is overvalued.
NuScale is not a good buy for most investors due to its extreme risk profile. The stock is down 78% over the past year and trades at a P/S ratio of 73.7x, implying the market expects massive future revenue that has not materialized. The average analyst target of $13.37 suggests a 36.2% upside, but the low target of $6.00 implies a 38.9% downside. The company faces intense competition and has been excluded from key government programs. It could be a good buy for speculative investors who believe in the long-term potential of SMRs and can tolerate high volatility, but only with a small position size and a long-term horizon.
NuScale is more suitable for long-term investment, but only for those with a high risk tolerance. The company is in a pre-commercialization phase, and it may take years to generate meaningful revenue. The stock's beta of 2.306 and 78% decline over the past year make it extremely volatile for short-term trading. There is no dividend, and earnings visibility is low. A minimum holding period of 5 years is recommended to allow the SMR market to develop. Short-term traders could profit from volatility, but the risk of significant losses is high.