SRAD

Analysis of Sportradar Group (SRAD)

Technical Perspective SRAD is experiencing significant technical weakness, underperforming the market by over 23 percentage points in the last three months. While the stock appears oversold after a 34% decline from its highs, its high beta of 2.0 suggests continued vulnerability to market volatility. The current price near the lower end of its 52-week range indicates persistent selling pressure.

Fundamental Health The company faces headwinds with a recent sequential revenue decline and volatile profitability, though its gross margin remains solid above 60%. Financially, SRAD is robust with minimal debt and strong liquidity, providing a stable foundation. However, operational metrics like low ROE and asset turnover point to inefficiencies in capital utilization.

Valuation & Risk Assessment SRAD carries premium valuation multiples, but its low PEG ratio of 0.32 suggests growth expectations may justify this pricing. The absence of peer data makes relative valuation challenging. Key risks include extreme volatility (beta >2) and substantial drawdowns, requiring a high risk tolerance from investors.

---

Investment Recommendation

Consider with Caution – Hold for Now SRAD presents a mixed picture: its strong balance sheet and growth-adjusted valuation are positive, but operational softness and severe technical deterioration raise concerns. The stock is suitable only for investors comfortable with high volatility and potential short-term downside. Await clearer signs of revenue stabilization or improved market sentiment before establishing new positions.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Sportradar (SRAD):

12-Month Outlook for SRAD

The primary catalyst for a recovery will be a return to sequential revenue growth and improved operational efficiency, which would help justify its premium valuation. The company's strong, debt-free balance sheet provides a solid foundation to navigate this period. Key risks include its high beta (2.0), making it extremely vulnerable to broader market downturns, and persistent operational headwinds evidenced by its low ROE. Given the lack of an analyst target, a prudent price range would be a recovery toward the $25-$30 area, contingent on improved fundamentals and stabilizing market sentiment, though volatility is expected to remain high.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about SRAD's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $20.34, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, SRAD has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

SRAD has demonstrated weak performance with significant declines across multiple timeframes relative to the broader market.

The stock has declined 6.23% over one month and 20.29% over three months, substantially underperforming the market by 23.33 percentage points during the latter period. This underperformance is amplified by the stock's high beta of 2.017, indicating much greater volatility than the overall market.

Currently trading at $21.06, SRAD sits approximately 34.6% above its 52-week low but remains 34.6% below its 52-week high, positioned in the lower third of its annual range. With a maximum drawdown of 33.75% over the past year, the stock appears technically oversold but remains vulnerable given its high volatility profile.

Revenue & Profitability: SRAD's revenue declined sequentially from €317.8 million in Q2 to €292.1 million in Q3 2025, indicating a potential slowdown. Profitability has been volatile, with the net income ratio dropping sharply from 15.5% in Q2 to just 7.7% in Q3, primarily due to a significant decrease in other income. The Q3 gross profit ratio improved to 63.9%, suggesting core operational pricing or cost control remains relatively strong despite the top-line pressure.

Financial Health: The company maintains a very strong balance sheet with minimal debt, evidenced by a low debt ratio of just 2.2% as of Q2. The current ratio of 1.3 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, and a cash ratio of 0.78 shows a substantial portion of current assets is held in cash. The cash flow to debt ratio of 1.85 further underscores a comfortable position to service its obligations.

Operational Efficiency: Operational efficiency appears challenged, with a low return on equity (ROE) of 5.2% and an even lower return on assets (ROA) of 2.1% for Q2. The asset turnover of 0.13 indicates the company generates a relatively low amount of revenue per euro of assets, pointing to potential underutilization. The negative cash conversion cycle of -135 days is a positive sign, showing SRAD collects from customers long before it needs to pay its suppliers.

Valuation Level: Sportradar Group (SRAD) exhibits premium valuation multiples across most traditional metrics. The company's elevated P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios suggest the market has priced in significant future growth, believing current profit and revenue levels do not fully reflect its potential. However, the notably low PEG ratio of 0.32 indicates that this growth expectation may be justified, as it suggests the stock is reasonably valued relative to its anticipated earnings growth rate.

Peer Comparison: A comprehensive peer comparison cannot be conducted as industry average data is unavailable. Without sector benchmarks for P/E, P/B, or P/S ratios, it is impossible to determine if SRAD's premium valuation is typical for its industry or an outlier. This lack of contextual data limits the ability to make a relative assessment of the stock's valuation attractiveness.

Volatility risk is notably elevated, as evidenced by the exceptionally high beta of 2.017, indicating the stock is approximately twice as volatile as the broader market. This is corroborated by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -33.75%, which highlights the potential for significant capital depletion during market downturns.

Other notable risks include the complete absence of reported short interest, which can be a double-edged sword by removing a potential source of buying pressure from short covering but also suggesting limited speculative negative sentiment is being expressed. While this lack of short interest may imply perceived stability, the stock's high volatility profile suggests investors should remain cautious of liquidity-driven price swings.