THC

Tenet Healthcare

$192.34

+4.71%
Jul 15, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Tenet Healthcare is a Dallas-based healthcare services organization that operates acute and specialty hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and outpatient facilities across the United States, primarily in the South, along with a revenue cycle management segment called Conifer. As a diversified healthcare provider with 50 hospitals and hundreds of outpatient facilities, Tenet distinguishes itself through its integrated care delivery model and its Conifer business, which provides technology-enabled revenue cycle solutions to other healthcare systems. The current investor narrative centers on Tenet's ability to sustain margin expansion and earnings growth amid a challenging payer mix, as highlighted by its recent Q1 2026 earnings beat and raised full-year profit outlook, while revenue fell short due to unfavorable patient insurance mix. The stock has also been buoyed by strong hospital utilization trends and a focus on cost discipline, though regulatory and reimbursement headwinds remain key debates.

People also watch

HCA Healthcare

HCA Healthcare

HCA

Analysis
DaVita

DaVita

DVA

Analysis
Solventum

Solventum

SOLV

Analysis
Encompass Health

Encompass Health

EHC

Analysis
The Ensign Group, Inc.

The Ensign Group, Inc.

ENSG

Analysis

THC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $192.34
Average Target $192.34
High Target $221.19
Low Target $163.49

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tenet Healthcare's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $250.04 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$250.04

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$154 - $250

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Tenet Healthcare has coverage from 4 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. All recent ratings are Buy or Outperform, with no Hold or Sell ratings. The average estimated EPS is $22.74, with a range of $22.37 to $23.28, and average estimated revenue is $24.077 billion. The implied upside to the current price of $204.25 is approximately 11.4% based on the average EPS target of $22.74 (assuming a forward P/E of 11.54x, the target price would be $262.50). However, explicit price targets are not provided. The consensus is strongly bullish, with all analysts maintaining positive ratings. The range of EPS estimates is narrow ($22.37 to $23.28), indicating high conviction among analysts. The low estimate of $22.37 implies a potential downside if earnings disappoint, while the high estimate of $23.28 suggests upside if the company executes well. The lack of explicit price targets limits the ability to calculate precise upside/downside, but the earnings estimates imply a forward P/E of 9.0x to 9.1x, which is below the current trailing P/E, suggesting analysts expect earnings growth to outpace price appreciation. Overall, the analyst sentiment is positive, but the small number of analysts (4) means the consensus may not fully reflect market sentiment.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

THC Technical Analysis

Tenet Healthcare's stock is in a broad uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +17.6%, though it has experienced significant volatility. The current price of $204.25 sits at 46.7% of its 52-week range ($146.60 low to $247.21 high), indicating it is closer to the midpoint than the extremes. This positioning suggests the stock is in a recovery phase after a sharp decline from its highs, but has not yet reclaimed the upper end of the range, implying cautious optimism rather than full momentum. The 52-week low of $146.60 and high of $247.21 provide clear reference points for support and resistance. Short-term momentum has been strong, with a 1-month price change of +24.0% and a 3-month change of +4.6%, showing a sharp acceleration in recent weeks. This contrasts with the 1-year trend, which has been positive but choppy, and the 6-month change of +1.5% indicates that the stock was essentially flat before the recent surge. The divergence between the strong 1-month rally and the tepid 6-month performance suggests a potential trend reversal or a mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions, rather than a sustained new uptrend. The stock's beta of 1.266 indicates it is 26.6% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves. The 52-week low of $146.60 serves as key support, while the 52-week high of $247.21 is the major resistance. A breakout above $247.21 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $146.60 would indicate a bearish reversal. The recent rally from the June low of $161.37 to $204.25 represents a 26.6% gain, but the stock remains 17.4% below its 52-week high, suggesting room to run if momentum persists.

Beta

1.27

1.27x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-34.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$147-$247

Price range past year

Annual Return

+11.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTHC ReturnS&P 500
1m+7.4%+0.0%
3m+0.2%+7.6%
6m-2.2%+9.1%
1y+11.3%+21.3%
ytd-3.6%+10.7%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

THC Fundamental Analysis

Tenet Healthcare's revenue has shown steady growth, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) of $5.527 billion, up 8.97% year-over-year from $5.072 billion in Q4 2024. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has grown from $5.072 billion (Q4 2024) to $5.527 billion (Q4 2025), indicating a consistent upward trajectory. However, Q1 2026 revenue of $5.227 billion missed expectations due to an unfavorable patient insurance mix, highlighting that growth is not linear. The Ambulatory Care segment contributed $1.433 billion in the most recent period, showing the importance of outpatient services. The overall growth trend supports the investment case, but the mix shift toward lower-revenue payer types is a headwind. Tenet is profitable, with net income of $371 million in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 6.7%. Gross margin has been volatile, ranging from 41.5% in Q4 2025 to 82.3% in Q2 2025, reflecting the impact of payer mix and cost structure. Operating margin was 15.4% in Q4 2025, down from 18.1% in Q1 2025, indicating some compression. However, the company has consistently generated positive net income over the past eight quarters, with EPS of $4.25 in Q4 2025. The trajectory is positive, but margin stability is key to the investment thesis. Tenet's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.12, which is high but typical for the hospital industry. Free cash flow (FCF) was $367 million in Q4 2025, and trailing twelve-month FCF is $2.53 billion, indicating strong cash generation. The company has $2.883 billion in cash at the end of Q4 2025, providing liquidity. Return on equity (ROE) is 33.3%, reflecting efficient use of equity, but the high leverage amplifies returns. The current ratio of 1.76 suggests adequate short-term liquidity. Overall, Tenet generates sufficient cash to fund operations and capital expenditures, but the high debt load requires monitoring.

Quarterly Revenue

$5.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+9.0%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

41.5%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Ambulatory Care

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is THC Overvalued?

Since Tenet Healthcare has positive net income ($371 million in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 12.73x, while the forward P/E is 11.54x, based on estimated EPS of $22.74 for the current fiscal year. The discount of the forward P/E to the trailing P/E implies that the market expects earnings growth, which is consistent with the raised full-year profit outlook. Compared to the industry average (Medical - Care Facilities), Tenet's P/E of 12.73x appears reasonable, though specific industry average data is not provided. However, the EV/EBITDA of 6.29x is low relative to historical levels, suggesting potential undervaluation. Historically, Tenet's trailing P/E has ranged from as low as 1.21x (Q1 2024) to as high as 37.27x (Q2 2022). The current 12.73x is near the lower end of its historical range, which could indicate a value opportunity if earnings are sustainable. The P/B ratio of 4.25x is also below the historical average, further supporting the value thesis. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and volatile margins warrant caution.

PE

12.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 1x~37x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

6.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple