TNA
TNATNA is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track and magnify the daily performance of small-cap U.
S. stocks. It is a leveraged product that seeks to deliver three times the daily returns of its underlying index, making it suitable for short-term, high-risk speculation.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TNA Today?
Of course. Here is a professional analysis of whether TNA is worth buying based on your comprehensive assessment.
Technical Outlook TNA is exhibiting exceptionally strong momentum, having surged over 15% in three months and significantly outperforming the broader market. However, this performance comes with extreme volatility, as evidenced by its severe 52-week drawdown of nearly -59%. Currently trading near its 52-week high, the ETF is in technically overbought territory, suggesting a heightened risk of a sharp pullback in the near term.
Fundamental & Valuation Considerations As a leveraged ETF, TNA does not have traditional company fundamentals like revenue or profits. Its value is derived from its underlying index of small-cap stocks. Its current valuation is a reflection of market sentiment toward those assets. The primary consideration is its structural objective: to deliver triple the daily returns of the Russell 2000 index.
Risk Analysis The dominant risk is TNA's extreme volatility, with a beta of 4.03 meaning it is four times more sensitive than the market. This leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but can lead to devastating losses during downturns, as shown by its past drawdown. This instrument is unsuitable for long-term buy-and-hold strategies due to the effects of volatility decay on its value over time.
Buy Recommendation Based on this analysis, a buy recommendation is only suitable for highly risk-tolerant traders with a very short-term, bullish outlook on small-cap stocks. The current overbought condition suggests waiting for a pullback would be prudent rather than buying at the peak. For most investors, TNA is not a core holding but a speculative trading tool that requires precise market timing and active risk management.
TNA 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA).
**12-Month Outlook for TNA**
The 12-month outlook hinges almost entirely on the direction of the broader market and, specifically, small-cap stocks. Key catalysts include potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would reduce borrowing costs for smaller companies and could trigger a significant rally in the Russell 2000 index. However, significant risks persist, including persistent inflation delaying rate cuts, a potential economic slowdown that would disproportionately impact smaller firms, and the structural risk of volatility decay inherent to this leveraged ETF. Given its extreme volatility (Beta of 4.03) and the inherent difficulty of predicting market direction a year out, projecting a specific target price is imprudent; TNA is best viewed as a short-term trading vehicle rather than a strategic 12-month holding.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about TNA's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $55.28, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: TNA Investment Factors
Overall, TNA has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Small-cap ETF leverage: 3x leveraged exposure to Russell 2000 offers amplified gains in rising small-cap markets
- Russell 2000 benchmark popularity: Premier small-cap equity benchmark provides established tracking framework for investors
- Institutional positioning awareness: Price dynamics inform institutional models for strategic timing opportunities
- Rotational strategy utility: ETF serves as tactical tool for market timing and sector rotation
Bearish
- Leverage decay risk: Daily reset of 3x leverage compounds losses during volatile or declining markets
- Weak near-term sentiment: Current sentiment suggests potential challenges for small-cap performance outlook
- High volatility exposure: Amplified moves work both ways, increasing risk during market turbulence
- Sector concentration risk: Heavy reliance on small-cap sector performance creates concentration vulnerability
TNA Technical Analysis
TNA's leveraged bullish positioning has delivered strong outperformance versus the market over a three-month horizon, though this represents a significant recovery from deep losses within the past year. The ETF's recent surge of 15.5% over three months starkly contrasts with its substantial 52-week drawdown of nearly -59%, highlighting its extreme volatility profile. Overall, this performance is characteristic of its high-beta (4.03) nature, offering magnified gains in a rising market but exposing investors to severe downside risk.
Short-term performance shows positive momentum, with a 3.73% gain over one month contributing to the larger quarterly uptrend. More significantly, TNA has outperformed its relevant market benchmark by over 12 percentage points in the last three months. This substantial relative strength indicates the leveraged bullish bet embedded in the fund is currently paying off handsomely in the prevailing market conditions.
Currently trading at $54.16, TNA is positioned near the top of its 52-week range ($18.01 - $55.10), sitting at approximately the 98th percentile. This places the ETF in technically overbought territory, just 1.7% below its 52-week high. Given its extreme beta and proximity to recent peaks, the risk of a sharp pullback is elevated, suggesting the current price level may be unsustainable in the near term without a significant positive catalyst.
| Period | TNA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.0% | +1.3% |
| 3m | +29.6% | +5.7% |
| 6m | +48.9% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +27.7% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +17.8% | +1.1% |
TNA Fundamental Analysis
Of course. Since no specific data is available for TNA, I will provide a general analytical framework describing what a professional would look for in each category.
1. Revenue & Profitability Without revenue or profitability data, an analysis cannot be conducted. A professional assessment would require figures such as quarterly/yearly revenue growth rates, net income, and profit margins (e.g., gross, operating, and net margin). These metrics are essential to determine if the company is growing sales and converting them efficiently into profit.
2. Financial Health The absence of data on debt levels, interest coverage, and cash flow from operations prevents any evaluation of financial health. Key concerns would be the company's debt-to-equity ratio and its ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet obligations and fund operations. Without this information, the company's solvency and liquidity risks cannot be assessed.
3. Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency is unmeasurable without key performance indicators. Critical metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) and asset turnover ratio are needed to judge how effectively management is using shareholder capital and company assets to generate earnings. The lack of this data makes it impossible to evaluate operational performance.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Based solely on the trailing P/E ratio of 21.08, TNA appears to be moderately valued. The absence of forward-looking metrics and other valuation ratios (PB, PS) limits a comprehensive multi-faceted analysis, as the single data point provides an incomplete picture of the stock's overall valuation level.
A peer comparison and deeper valuation analysis are not feasible at this time due to the unavailability of industry average data. To conduct a proper relative valuation, data on the industry's average P/E, P/B, and other key ratios would be required for a meaningful benchmark.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Based on the provided metrics, TNA carries exceptionally high volatility risk. With a Beta of 4.03, the fund is expected to be about four times more volatile than the broader market, meaning it will likely experience much sharper swings both upward and downward. This extreme sensitivity is further evidenced by the maximum drawdown of -58.94% over the past year, indicating a significant historical loss from a peak to a trough that would be highly challenging for risk-averse investors to withstand.
Regarding other risks, the notable absence of reported short interest is atypical and may suggest either very low institutional trading volume or potential data reporting issues, which itself could be a concern for transparency. While this lack of short interest eliminates the immediate risk of a short squeeze, the fund's focus on small-cap stocks inherently carries liquidity risks; these underlying assets can be harder to trade during market stress, potentially leading to larger discrepancies between the fund's price and its net asset value (NAV).
FAQs
Neutral-to-Bearish. TNA is a highly speculative, 3x leveraged ETF trading near its 52-week high after a strong rally, exposing buyers to immediate pullback risk. Its extreme beta (4.03) and history of severe drawdowns (-59% over 52 weeks) make it unsuitable for buy-and-hold investors. This is strictly for experienced, active traders who can tolerate high volatility and monitor positions closely for short-term tactical plays.
Based on the limited data provided, TNA appears to be fairly valued.
1. Judgment: The trailing P/E ratio of 21.08 is being used as the sole benchmark. Without industry average or historical P/E data, it is impossible to definitively label it as overvalued or undervalued. This P/E level is moderate and does not immediately suggest extreme mispricing.
2. Comparison: A relative valuation comparison is not feasible. The analysis is severely limited by the absence of industry-average P/E, forward P/E, Price-to-Book (P/B), and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios, which are crucial for context.
3. Key Metrics: * Trailing P/E Ratio (21.08): The only available metric. * Other Metrics Unavailable: Forward P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios are all listed as N/A, preventing a multi-dimensional analysis.
4. Explanation: The single data point offers an incomplete picture. A P/E of 21.08 could be justified by high growth expectations, strong profitability, or a defensive business model. Conversely, it could signal overvaluation if the company's growth prospects are weak. The lack of fundamental data on revenue, profitability, and financial health makes it impossible to determine the rationale behind the current valuation.
Based on the provided analysis of TNA (the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares ETF), here are the key risks of holding this stock, ordered by importance.
1. Extreme Volatility and Drawdown Risk: Holding TNA exposes an investor to severe price swings, as evidenced by its 4.03 beta and a maximum drawdown of nearly -59% in the past year, meaning a small market decline can lead to catastrophic losses for the ETF. 2. Structural Leverage Decay Risk: As a daily-leveraged ETF, TNA is susceptible to volatility decay, a compounding effect that can cause the fund's long-term performance to diverge significantly from triple the daily return of its index, especially in volatile or sideways markets. 3. Illiquidity and Pricing Dislocation Risk: The fund's focus on small-cap stocks introduces inherent liquidity risk, which can be amplified during market stress, potentially leading to large discrepancies between TNA's market price and its net asset value (NAV).
Of course. Here is a professional forecast for the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) through 2026.
TNA Stock Forecast Through 2026
1. Target Price Range: Given TNA's nature as a leveraged ETF, a precise long-term price target is impractical due to extreme volatility and the effects of volatility decay. The 2026 outlook is entirely contingent on the performance of the underlying Russell 2000 index. A plausible base case range could be $40 - $70, while a bull case driven by a strong small-cap rally could see prices exceed $90.
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Federal Reserve Policy: The primary driver will be the path of interest rates. Sustained rate cuts would reduce borrowing costs for small-cap companies, making them more attractive and potentially fueling a significant rally. * Economic Outlook: A "soft landing" or reacceleration of the U.S. economy would benefit small caps, which are more domestically focused and sensitive to economic growth. * Market Sentiment: A broad risk-on environment, where investors seek high-growth potential, would lead to capital flowing into small-cap stocks, amplifying TNA's gains.
3. Main Assumptions: This forecast assumes no catastrophic market event, that the ETF's structure remains unchanged, and that the relationship between the Russell 2000 and broader economic conditions holds. The base case assumes a period of moderate economic growth with measured Fed easing.
4. Uncertainty of the Forecast: It is critical to emphasize that this forecast is highly speculative. TNA is designed for short-term trading, not long-term investment. Factors like volatility decay, sudden shifts in monetary policy, or an economic recession could lead to catastrophic losses, making any price target for 2026 extremely uncertain. Investors should not use this ETF for a multi-year buy-and-hold strategy.