TOL

Toll Brothers

$139.53

+0.83%
Jun 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading luxury homebuilder in the United States, operating across over 60 markets in 24 states and catering primarily to affluent first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company has established a distinct competitive identity as the preeminent luxury homebuilder, differentiating itself through a strategic shift towards a greater mix of speculative, or 'quick move-in,' homes and an expansion into 'affordable luxury' price points. The current investor narrative is driven by the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, evidenced by its recent acquisition of a private homebuilder in Northwest Arkansas, and its relative outperformance as investors rotate into defensive, asset-backed sectors amid persistent inflation fears and structural housing shortages.

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TOL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $139.53
Average Target $139.53
High Target $160.4595
Low Target $118.6005

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Toll Brothers's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $181.39 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$181.39

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$112 - $181

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for Toll Brothers is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, which is low for a company of its market cap and suggests it may be under-followed by the broader institutional community, potentially leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, based on recent institutional ratings, leans bullish, with firms like JP Morgan, Oppenheimer, UBS, RBC Capital, and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Overweight,' 'Outperform,' or 'Buy' ratings, while others like Citigroup and Keefe Bruyette & Woods have 'Neutral' or 'Market Perform' stances. The average target price or implied upside cannot be calculated from the provided data, as only EPS and revenue estimates are given without explicit price targets. The estimated EPS range for the covered period is $15.33 to $16.34, with an average of $16.00, indicating a relatively tight spread and moderate consensus on near-term profitability. The pattern of recent analyst actions shows stability, with all reported actions in February 2026 being reiterations of existing ratings, signaling maintained conviction but no major catalyst-driven upgrades or downgrades at that time.

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TOL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 31.88% one-year price change, but is currently experiencing a significant pullback from its recent highs. As of the latest close at $138.54, the price is trading at approximately 82% of its 52-week range ($100.92 to $168.36), indicating it has retreated meaningfully from its peak but remains well above its lows, suggesting a potential consolidation phase after a strong run. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down 0.74% over the past month and down 11.89% over the past three months, a stark divergence from the positive one-year trend that signals a significant correction or profit-taking phase. This short-term weakness is further highlighted by a relative strength reading of -22.17 against the S&P 500 over three months, indicating severe underperformance. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $100.92, while immediate resistance lies near the recent 52-week high of $168.36; a decisive break below the $130-$135 area could signal a deeper correction towards support, while reclaiming the $150 level would suggest the uptrend is resuming. The stock's beta of 1.385 indicates it is approximately 39% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management given its current high volatility and drawdown of -25.27% from its peak.

Beta

1.39

1.39x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$103-$168

Price range past year

Annual Return

+35.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTOL ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.2%+5.4%
3m-9.1%+10.9%
6m-1.1%+11.0%
1y+35.1%+28.1%
ytd+2.9%+11.4%

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TOL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent Q1 FY2026 revenue of $2.15 billion representing a 15.41% year-over-year increase, continuing a multi-quarter trend of solid growth, as evidenced by sequential quarterly revenues of $2.74B, $2.95B, and $3.42B in the preceding quarters. The primary driver is the Home Building segment, which contributed $1.85 billion in the latest quarter, though growth appears to be moderating from the very high rates seen in prior periods. The company is highly profitable, with Q1 net income of $210.9 million and a net margin of 9.83%, while the gross margin for the quarter was 22.84%, reflecting a compression from the 25.96% gross margin reported in the valuation data, which may indicate pricing or cost pressures. Profitability metrics are strong, with a Return on Equity of 16.28% and a Return on Assets of 7.53%, demonstrating efficient use of capital. The balance sheet is exceptionally healthy, featuring a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and a robust current ratio of 4.17, indicating ample liquidity. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.45 billion, providing significant internal funding capacity for growth initiatives like acquisitions and share repurchases, while the strong cash position mitigates financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.1B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.15%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.22%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Home Building
Land

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Valuation Analysis: Is TOL Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 9.92x, while the forward PE is slightly lower at 9.80x, indicating the market expects roughly stable earnings growth in the near term. Compared to industry averages, the stock trades at a significant discount; for instance, its trailing PE of 9.92x is well below typical residential construction sector averages, which often range in the mid-teens, suggesting the market may be pricing in cyclical risks or margin compression concerns. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated; the current trailing PE of 9.92x is near the lower end of its recent historical range, as seen in quarterly data where PE ratios have varied from as low as 4.26x in late 2023 to over 19x in early 2025. Trading near the bottom of its own historical band suggests the stock may be presenting a value opportunity if the company's fundamentals remain intact, but it could also reflect investor skepticism about the sustainability of earnings in a potentially slowing housing market.

PE

9.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 2x~19x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple