TROW

T. Rowe Price

$102.38

+0.36%
May 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is a prominent asset management firm providing investment management services to individual and institutional investors, primarily through a broad suite of mutual funds, retirement plans, and private accounts. The company is a well-established leader in the active asset management industry, distinguished by its strong brand, long-term investment philosophy, and a relatively sticky client base, with approximately two-thirds of its $1.776 trillion in assets under management held in retirement accounts. The current investor narrative centers on the firm's ability to navigate a challenging environment for active managers, marked by fee pressure and the ongoing shift to passive investing, while recent financial results and market volatility have put its organic growth and profitability trajectory under scrutiny.

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TROW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $102.38
Average Target $102.38
High Target $117.73699999999998
Low Target $87.023

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on T. Rowe Price's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $133.09 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$133.09

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$82 - $133

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage for TROW appears limited in the provided dataset, with only one analyst providing estimates for EPS and revenue, and no consensus price target or recommendation distribution shown. The single analyst estimates an average EPS of $9.90 and revenue of $7.86 billion for the forward period. The lack of a broad consensus target and the minimal number of analysts suggest coverage may be thinner than for larger peers, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Given the insufficient data on price targets, the focus shifts to recent institutional rating actions. The provided data shows a series of 'Hold' or equivalent ratings from major firms like Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight), JP Morgan (Underweight), and Barclays (Underweight) throughout early 2026, with no recent upgrades. This pattern indicates a neutral to cautiously bearish sentiment among covering institutions, with analysts likely concerned about the company's growth prospects and competitive positioning. The absence of bullish price targets and the prevalence of 'Market Perform' or 'Underweight' ratings signal that the analyst community currently sees limited near-term catalysts for significant multiple expansion.

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TROW Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of only +4.46%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +25.19% gain, as evidenced by a relative strength of -20.73. Currently trading at $102.01, the price sits at approximately 60% of its 52-week range ($85.22 to $118.22), indicating it is much closer to its yearly lows than highs, which may signal a value opportunity but also reflects persistent negative momentum and investor caution. The stock experienced a sharp sell-off in early February, dropping from $106.65 to a low of $85.22, and despite a recent recovery, it remains well below its previous highs, suggesting the long-term trend remains weak. Recent short-term momentum shows signs of a tentative recovery, with a +6.14% gain over the past month and a +8.80% gain over the past three months, both slightly outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of +5.60% and +8.42%. This positive divergence from the weak 1-year trend could indicate a potential mean reversion bounce or a stabilization phase following the severe February drawdown, which reached -22.71%. However, the stock's high beta of 1.532 confirms it is over 50% more volatile than the market, meaning these short-term moves are amplified and carry higher risk. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with major support at the 52-week low of $85.22 and significant resistance at the 52-week high of $118.22. A sustained breakout above the $118 resistance would signal a major trend reversal and renewed institutional confidence, while a breakdown below the $85 support could trigger another leg down. The stock's elevated beta of 1.53 underscores its sensitivity to broader market moves, necessitating careful risk management for investors considering a position during this volatile consolidation phase.

Beta

1.53

1.53x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$85-$118

Price range past year

Annual Return

+4.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTROW ReturnS&P 500
1m+5.6%+4.0%
3m+9.1%+8.2%
6m+5.1%+11.5%
1y+4.4%+24.3%
ytd-2.2%+8.3%

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TROW Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest and inconsistent, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.934 billion representing a +6.01% year-over-year increase. However, examining the quarterly sequence from Q1 to Q4 2025 reveals volatility: revenue dipped from $1.763 billion in Q1 to $1.723 billion in Q2, rose to $1.893 billion in Q3, and reached $1.934 billion in Q4. The Asset Management segment, contributing $1.738 billion in the latest period, is the core driver, but overall growth remains subdued, reflecting the industry-wide challenges of net outflows and fee compression. Profitability remains solid but under pressure, with the company reporting net income of $445.3 million and a net margin of 23.02% for Q4 2025. The gross margin was exceptionally high at 94.57% for that quarter, though this is atypical for the asset management industry and may be influenced by accounting treatment of revenue. More telling is the operating margin, which was 24.35% in Q4, down from 33.96% in Q3, indicating potential compression in core earnings power. The full-year trend shows net income has fluctuated quarterly, from $490.5 million in Q1 to $505.2 million in Q2, $646.1 million in Q3, and back to $445.3 million in Q4. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with minimal financial risk, featuring a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.079 and a towering current ratio of 73.08, indicating massive liquidity. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.114 billion, providing ample resources for dividends, share buybacks, and organic investment. Return on equity of 19.22% is healthy, demonstrating efficient use of shareholder capital, and the robust cash position insulates the firm from market downturns, though it also suggests a potential lack of high-return internal investment opportunities.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.06%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.94%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Asset Management
Capital Allocation Based Income

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Valuation Analysis: Is TROW Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 10.98, while the forward PE is slightly lower at 10.61, indicating the market expects roughly stable earnings. The narrow gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests muted growth expectations from analysts, aligning with the company's modest revenue trajectory. Compared to industry averages, TROW's valuation appears mixed. Its trailing PE of 10.98 is below the typical asset management sector average, which often ranges in the mid-teens, suggesting a discount. However, its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 3.13 and Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 2.11 need sector context; the discount likely reflects concerns over organic growth, fee pressure, and the competitive threat from passive investing, potentially justifying its lower multiples despite a strong balance sheet and dividend yield. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 10.98 is near the bottom of its own multi-year range, as seen in the historical data where PE ratios have fluctuated from highs above 20x during the 2021 bull market to recent lows. Trading near the lower end of its historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, which could represent a value opportunity if the company can stabilize flows and earnings, but also risks a value trap if fundamental deterioration persists.

PE

11.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 9x~23x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple