TransUnion

Based on a comprehensive analysis, TRU presents a conflicting picture with significant concerns outweighing its strengths.

Technically, the stock is in a pronounced downtrend with persistent negative momentum and high volatility, indicating substantial weakness. Fundamentally, TRU shows stable revenue and strong, improving gross margins, but its operational efficiency metrics like ROE and ROA are weak. The most critical concern is valuation; the stock appears significantly overvalued with a high P/E and an extremely elevated PEG ratio, suggesting future growth is already richly priced. Combined with high volatility risk, these factors present a challenging outlook.

Recommendation: HOLD / NOT A BUY

While TRU possesses decent operational profitability, its extreme premium valuation and strong negative technical momentum create substantial downside risk. The current price does not appear to offer a sufficient margin of safety for new investment. Investors should wait for either a meaningful correction to improve valuation or clearer signs of a technical reversal before considering a position.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for TRU is cautious. The primary catalysts for a potential rebound would be a significant correction in its valuation or a convincing reversal of its negative technical momentum. However, the key risks are substantial, including its extreme overvaluation according to the PEG ratio and the persistent downtrend indicating weak investor sentiment. Without a clear analyst target, the path of least resistance appears lower, and investors should prioritize risk management, waiting for a more attractive entry point before considering a position.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about TransUnion's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $76.12, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, TRU has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

TRU has demonstrated significant weakness with substantial declines across multiple timeframes amid elevated volatility. The stock remains in a pronounced downtrend, having lost considerable value from its recent highs while exhibiting higher risk characteristics than the broader market.

The short-term performance shows consistent negative momentum, with TRU declining approximately 7.5% over both one and three months while significantly underperforming the market by nearly 9 percentage points. This persistent underperformance, combined with the stock's high beta of 1.70, indicates it has been both falling rapidly and experiencing amplified volatility relative to market movements.

Currently trading at $76.12, TRU sits in the lower portion of its 52-week range, approximately 43% above its low but nearly 24% below its high. The substantial maximum drawdown of -31.89% over the past year suggests the stock is in oversold territory, though the persistent negative momentum warrants caution despite the depressed positioning.

Revenue & Profitability TRU demonstrated stable quarterly revenue of $1.17 billion in Q4 2025, showing slight improvement from Q3. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross margin of 59.3% in Q4, significantly improved from 46.5% in Q3, while net margin remained healthy at 8.6%. Operating income margin held steady at approximately 17%, indicating consistent operational profitability.

Financial Health The company maintains moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15 and total debt-to-capitalization of 53.5%. Current ratio of 1.75 indicates good short-term liquidity, though the interest coverage ratio of 3.3 suggests adequate but not robust debt servicing capacity. Cash flow metrics show reasonable coverage with operating cash flow to sales at 27.3%.

Operational Efficiency TRU's operational efficiency shows room for improvement with ROE at 2.3% and ROA at 0.9%. Asset turnover of 0.11 indicates relatively low revenue generation from the asset base, though fixed asset turnover of 4.5 demonstrates better utilization of property and equipment. The cash conversion cycle of 3.4 days reflects efficient working capital management.

Based on the available metrics, TRU appears significantly overvalued. The TTM P/E of 33.4 and a higher forward P/E of 41.2 suggest that earnings growth is not keeping pace with the current stock price. This is starkly confirmed by an extremely high PEG ratio of 10.31, indicating the market is valuing future growth at a substantial premium. The elevated EV/EBITDA of 59.3 further signals that the company's core operating profitability is being priced very richly.

A peer comparison cannot be completed as industry average data is not available. Therefore, this valuation assessment is made in isolation without the crucial context of sector norms. To determine if TRU's premium is justified, a comparison against the average P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA multiples of its direct competitors would be necessary.

Volatility Risk: TRU exhibits substantial volatility risk with a beta of 1.703, indicating it is approximately 70% more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity is further underscored by a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -31.89%, highlighting its potential for considerable price declines during market downturns.

Other Risks: The notable absence of reported short interest, while seemingly positive, could mask underlying market sentiment concerns or a lack of institutional attention. Liquidity should be verified, as a lack of a substantial short position may coincide with lower trading volumes, potentially amplifying price impacts from large trades.