UGL

UGL

ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the daily performance of gold bullion.
It is specifically designed to deliver twice the daily return of the gold price, making it a leveraged instrument for commodity-focused investors seeking amplified exposure to gold market movements.

$63.78 +1.22 (+1.95%)

Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST

Analyzed by Rockflow Bobby Quantitative Model āœ“ Updated Daily

Investment Opinion: Should I buy UGL Today?

Of course. Here is a consolidated summary and buy recommendation based on the provided analysis.

**Summary Analysis**

UGL exhibits exceptionally strong technical momentum, significantly outperforming the market and trading near its 52-week high. However, this has pushed the stock into an overbought condition, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. The fundamental and valuation picture is unclear as critical financial data is unavailable, making it impossible to assess the company's underlying health or fair value. Its risk profile is moderate, moving in line with the broader market, but the lack of liquidity data is a concern.

**Buy Recommendation**

Based purely on its powerful price trend, UGL presents a compelling but high-risk momentum play. The absence of fundamental data means this investment is not grounded in traditional financial analysis, relying entirely on the continuation of its bullish momentum. Investors should approach with extreme caution, considering the high probability of a near-term correction from current overbought levels. Strict risk management, including a well-defined stop-loss, is essential.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

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UGL 12-Month Price Forecast

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for UGL.

**12-Month Outlook for UGL**

UGL's outlook is dominated by its powerful technical momentum, which is its primary catalyst. The stock's ability to sustain its trend and break through key resistance levels will be critical for continued upside over the next year. However, the major risk is its current overbought condition, which historically precedes a significant price correction; a break below its 50-day moving average could trigger a swift decline. Without fundamental data to establish fair value, a target price is speculative, but a sustained breakout could push the stock 15-25% higher, while a failure of momentum could lead to a 20-30% retracement.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about UGL's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $63.78, indicating expected upside potential.

Average Target
$63.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
0
covering this stock
Price Range
$51 - $83
Analyst target range
Buy Buy
0 (0%)
Hold Hold
0 (0%)
Sell Sell
0 (0%)

Bulls vs Bears: UGL Investment Factors

Overall, UGL has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Bullish Bullish
  • Leveraged gold exposure: UGL provides 2x leveraged exposure to gold prices, amplifying gains during bullish gold markets.
  • Gold breakout potential: Recent analysis rates UGL as a 'buy' for leveraged gold exposure amid potential breakout.
  • Strategic portfolio diversification: Gold ETFs help investors gain tactical exposure to gold in various market conditions.
  • Institutional interest: UGL price movements set the tone for institutional trading models and risk assessment.
  • Market momentum plays: Gold stocks have shown numerous trading setups and may continue upward momentum.
Bearish Bearish
  • Gold momentum cooling: Gold recently posted its largest decline in years, indicating potential cooling of upward trend.
  • Leverage risk exposure: 2x leverage amplifies losses during gold price declines, increasing investor risk.
  • Commodity volatility: Gold prices are highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors and Fed policy changes.
  • Corporate restructuring: Parent company asset rotation and subsidiary sales may create portfolio uncertainty.
  • Market timing risk: Leveraged ETFs require precise market timing to avoid decay during sideways movements.
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UGL Technical Analysis

Of course, here is the technical analysis of UGL's price performance.

Overall Assessment UGL has demonstrated exceptional performance, surging approximately 29% over the last three months and significantly outperforming the broader market by over 25 percentage points.

Short-term Performance The stock's momentum is strong, with a substantial 13.58% gain in just one month building upon its impressive 3-month return. This powerful upward trend, coupled with a positive relative strength of 25.81%, indicates the stock is not only rising but is doing so at a pace that far exceeds the market benchmark, suggesting strong buyer conviction.

Current Position Trading near $62.56, UGL is positioned at the very top of its 52-week range ($23.96 - $63.90), sitting just below its yearly high. While this indicates significant bullish strength, it also places the stock in a technically overbought condition, warranting caution for new entries as it is highly susceptible to a pullback or consolidation near this resistance level.

šŸ“Š Beta
1.06
1.06x market volatility
šŸ“‰ Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
šŸ“ˆ 52-Week Range
$24-$64
Price range past year
šŸ’¹ Annual Return
+157.4%
Cumulative gain past year
Period UGL Return S&P 500
1m +14.4% +1.3%
3m +29.1% +5.7%
6m +83.4% +10.6%
1y +157.4% +16.5%
ytd +14.1% +1.1%

UGL Fundamental Analysis

Based on the limited information provided, a comprehensive fundamental analysis of UGL cannot be performed. The absence of a recent quarterly report and financial ratios means no quantitative assessment of revenue, profitability, financial health, or operational efficiency is possible.

Without access to balance sheet, income statement, or cash flow data, it is impractical to comment on the company's debt levels, liquidity, or cash flow situation. Similarly, key efficiency metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) and asset turnover cannot be calculated or evaluated.

In conclusion, any meaningful financial analysis requires the foundational datasets which are currently unavailable. A proper review would necessitate access to the company's audited financial statements and detailed quarterly disclosures.

Quarterly Revenue
N/A
2025-09
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.3B
Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is UGL Overvalued?

Based on the limited valuation metrics provided, a conclusive analysis of UGL's valuation level cannot be determined. Key ratios such as PE, PB, PS, and EV/EBITDA are not available (N/A), which means it is impossible to assess whether the stock is potentially overvalued or undervalued based on earnings, assets, or sales. This absence of data could be due to the company being in a pre-revenue stage, experiencing losses, or having atypical financials that render these standard metrics inapplicable.

Without standard valuation metrics for UGL and a lack of peer industry average data, a comparative peer analysis cannot be performed. To evaluate relative value, data on the industry's average PE, PB, and PS ratios would be necessary to serve as a benchmark. In the absence of both company-specific multiples and industry comparables, no meaningful assessment of UGL's valuation relative to its sector can be provided.

Current PE
N/Ax
TTM
vs. Historical
N/A
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/AƗ
EV/EBITDA
N/Ax
Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Based on the provided metrics, UGL's volatility risk profile suggests a moderate level of market-correlated risk. The Beta of 1.06 indicates that the stock's price movements are very closely aligned with the broader market, experiencing roughly the same level of systematic risk. The maximum drawdown of -19.62% over the past year demonstrates that while significant, the peak-to-trough decline was not exceptionally severe compared to highly volatile assets, reinforcing a profile of moderate, market-typical volatility.

Regarding other risk factors, the absence of notable short interest is a positive signal, implying that sophisticated investors do not have a strong, collective negative conviction on the stock's near-term prospects. However, the lack of provided data on liquidity (e.g., average trading volume or bid-ask spread) leaves a gap in the analysis; low liquidity can pose a distinct risk by making it difficult to execute large trades without adversely impacting the stock's price.

FAQs

Is UGL a good stock to buy?

Based on the analysis provided, my opinion is Neutral.

UGL's technicals show strong momentum, but the stock is trading near its yearly high in an overbought condition, suggesting risk of a pullback. Fundamentally, there is insufficient data to assess the company's financial health or valuation. While the product offers leveraged gold exposure for potential gains, this also amplifies risks during gold price declines.

This stock may suit speculative investors comfortable with high volatility and those seeking tactical exposure to gold. Long-term and value investors should avoid it due to the lack of fundamental clarity and leveraged risks.

Is UGL stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on the limited valuation data provided, it is impossible to determine whether UGL stock is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued.

Judgment: Cannot be determined due to insufficient data. Comparison: Key valuation metrics (PE, PB, PS) are all listed as "N/A," preventing any meaningful comparison to industry averages or historical levels. Key Metrics: PE Ratio (N/A), PB Ratio (N/A), PS Ratio (N/A). Explanation: The lack of standard valuation multiples suggests the company may be in a pre-revenue stage, experiencing significant losses, or have atypical financials that make traditional valuation models inapplicable. A proper assessment would require access to fundamental financial data, such as earnings, book value, and sales, to calculate these essential metrics.

What are the main risks of holding UGL?

Of course. Here are the key risks of holding UGL, based on the provided information.

Key Risks of Holding UGL

1. Market and Technical Reversal Risk: Holding UGL carries a high risk of a near-term price correction because the stock is technically overbought, trading at the peak of its 52-week range following a period of exceptional performance that has significantly outpaced the broader market. 2. Business and Liquidity Risk: An investor faces significant business-specific risks due to the complete lack of fundamental financial data, making it impossible to assess the company's profitability, debt levels, or operational health, which could conceal underlying vulnerabilities. 3. Liquidity and Execution Risk: There is a potential risk that an investor may be unable to buy or sell a significant position efficiently without impacting the stock's price, as the absence of liquidity metrics (like average trading volume) suggests this dimension of risk cannot be ruled out. 4. Industry and Systematic Risk: As a holder of UGL, you are exposed to general market downturns with a risk profile very similar to the broader market, as indicated by its Beta of 1.06, meaning it offers little diversification benefit during a market decline.

What is the price forecast for UGL in 2026?

Of course. Based on the provided information and general market principles, here is a professional forecast for UGL stock through 2026.

***

**UGL Stock Forecast Through 2026**

1. Target Price Range: * Base Case (2026): $55 - $75 * Bull Case (2026): $80 - $100+

2. Key Growth Drivers: * Technical Momentum: The primary driver will be the stock's ability to sustain its powerful upward trend and attract momentum-focused traders. * Macroeconomic Environment: As a non-yielding asset, its performance is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and inflation sentiment. A "higher-for-longer" rate environment could be a headwind. * Market Sentiment: UGL's price is a leveraged bet on gold; therefore, any significant fear, geopolitical tension, or loss of confidence in fiat currencies could provide a substantial tailwind.

3. Main Assumptions: This forecast assumes that UGL's price action will continue to be driven primarily by technical factors and macro sentiment rather than traditional company fundamentals (like earnings), given the lack of available financial data. It also assumes no major, unforeseen disruptions to the underlying gold market.

4. Uncertainty of the Forecast: This outlook is highly speculative and carries significant uncertainty. The primary risk is its extended overbought condition, which historically precedes sharp corrections. The forecast is entirely dependent on the volatile and sentiment-driven nature of the gold market, making it far less predictable than a forecast for a typical equity.