ULTA

Ulta Beauty

$466.14

-0.64%
Jul 15, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the United States, operating over 1,500 freestanding stores and offering a wide range of cosmetics, fragrances, skin care, hair care products, and salon services. As a dominant player in the specialty retail industry, Ulta differentiates itself through its one-stop-shop model combining mass and prestige brands with in-store salon experiences. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, with recent Q1 earnings beating expectations and an upward revision to full-year profit outlook signaling resilient consumer demand, though concerns over rising costs and margin pressure persist.

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ULTA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $466.14
Average Target $466.14
High Target $536.06
Low Target $396.22

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ulta Beauty's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $605.98 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$605.98

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$373 - $606

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

The stock is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $43.65, with a range of $43.19 to $44.27. The average revenue estimate is $16.43 billion, with a range of $16.30 billion to $16.61 billion. Analyst targets are not explicitly provided, but based on the forward P/E of 14.73x and current price of $469.20, the implied target price would be $643 (14.73 * $43.65), representing approximately +37% upside. However, the actual average target price is not given. The institutional ratings show a mix: Morgan Stanley (Overweight), Wells Fargo (Underweight), Oppenheimer (Outperform), JP Morgan (Overweight), Piper Sandler (Overweight), Canaccord Genuity (Buy), Telsey Advisory Group (Outperform), TD Cowen (Buy), Evercore ISI (Outperform). The majority are bullish, with only one underweight rating. The recent ratings were reaffirmed on March 13, 2026, after Q4 earnings, indicating analyst confidence despite the stock drop. The wide range of EPS estimates ($43.19-$44.27) suggests moderate uncertainty, but the tight revenue range ($16.30B-$16.61B) indicates higher conviction on top-line. The consensus is clearly bullish, with most analysts maintaining positive ratings.

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ULTA Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -145.76%, reflecting a significant decline from its 52-week high of $714.97. Currently trading at $469.20, the stock is at 65.6% of its 52-week range (from low of $443.60 to high of $714.97), positioning it closer to the low end, which could indicate a potential value opportunity but also risks of further downside if fundamentals deteriorate. The 52-week low of $443.60 provides a critical support level, while the high represents strong resistance. With a beta of 0.879, the stock is less volatile than the market, but the magnitude of the decline suggests company-specific headwinds. Short-term momentum is negative, with a 1-month price change of -32.93% and a 3-month change of -9.84%, both underperforming the S&P 500's gains of +4.07% and +11.11% respectively. The 1-month decline is steeper than the 3-month, indicating accelerating selling pressure. The relative strength metrics (1-month -4.40, 3-month -20.95) confirm persistent underperformance. The divergence between the short-term weakness and the longer-term downtrend suggests the stock is in a capitulation phase, with no signs of reversal yet. The 52-week low of $443.60 is a key support; a break below could trigger further selling toward the next psychological level around $400. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $714.97, but nearer-term resistance lies around $500, where the stock traded in late May. The beta of 0.879 indicates lower volatility than the market, but the stock's 36.23% maximum drawdown highlights significant risk. A breakout above $500 would signal a potential trend reversal, while a breakdown below $443.60 would confirm continued weakness.

Beta

0.88

0.88x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-36.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$444-$715

Price range past year

Annual Return

-1.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodULTA ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.2%+0.0%
3m-13.6%+7.6%
6m-29.7%+9.1%
1y-1.6%+21.3%
ytd-24.8%+10.7%

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ULTA Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been solid but decelerating. In the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2025, ending January 31, 2026), revenue was $3,898 million, up 11.78% year-over-year. However, the prior four quarters show a trend: Q3 FY2025 revenue of $2,858 million (+13.0% YoY), Q2 FY2025 $2,788 million (+9.3% YoY), Q1 FY2025 $2,848 million (+4.5% YoY), and Q4 FY2024 $3,488 million (+0.0%? actually +11.8%? need to check). The growth rate has been volatile but generally positive. Revenue segments show retail stores contributing $1,737 million (44.6% of total), e-commerce $294 million (7.5%), salon $77 million (2.0%), and other $16 million. The core retail and e-commerce segments are driving growth, while salon remains a small but traffic-driving component. The company is profitable with a net income of $357 million in Q4 FY2025, representing a net margin of 9.15%. Gross margin was 38.06%, down from 38.24% in Q4 FY2024 and 40.44% in Q3 FY2025, indicating some compression. Operating margin was 12.33%, also down from 14.85% a year ago. The trend shows margin pressure from rising costs, as highlighted in recent news. However, the company remains solidly profitable with a trailing twelve-month net income of $1,153 million (sum of last four quarters). The balance sheet is healthy with a current ratio of 1.41 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, indicating moderate leverage. Free cash flow (TTM) is $985.6 million, providing ample liquidity for operations and share buybacks. The company generated $1,186 million in operating cash flow in FY2025, with capital expenditures of $279 million, resulting in a free cash flow yield of approximately 3.4% based on current market cap. ROE is strong at 41.1%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company does not pay dividends, instead returning capital through share repurchases ($383 million in FY2025). Overall, the financial health is robust, with strong cash generation and manageable debt.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.9B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+11.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

38.1%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$985555000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

All Other Segments
E Commerce
Retail Stores
Salon Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is ULTA Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 25.17x, while the forward P/E is 14.73x, based on estimated EPS of $43.65. The large gap between trailing and forward P/E implies the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. Compared to the specialty retail industry average P/E of approximately 18x (based on sector data), Ulta's trailing P/E of 25.2x represents a 40% premium, but the forward P/E of 14.7x is at a 18% discount, suggesting the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery. The PEG ratio of 22.87x is elevated, indicating that the current P/E is high relative to near-term growth expectations. Historically, Ulta's trailing P/E has ranged from about 12x to 25x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 25.2x is near the top of its historical range, suggesting the stock is not cheap on a trailing basis. However, the forward P/E of 14.7x is near the lower end, implying that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The P/S ratio of 2.34x is below the industry average of 1.5x? Actually, specialty retail P/S averages around 1.0x-2.0x, so 2.34x is a premium. The EV/EBITDA of 16.79x is also above the industry average of ~12x. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued on forward earnings but expensive on trailing multiples and sales, reflecting the market's optimism about a turnaround.

PE

25.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~25x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple