UPRO

Of course. Here is a technical analysis of UPRO based on the provided metrics.

Overall Assessment: UPRO has demonstrated strong performance with significant gains driven by its leveraged structure, though this comes with substantial volatility as evidenced by its high beta and deep maximum drawdown.

Short-term Performance: The stock has shown positive momentum, advancing 1.56% over one month and 6.71% over three months, notably outperforming the market by 3.34% in the latter period. This robust short-term performance reflects the leveraged ETF's characteristic of magnifying underlying index moves.

Current Position: Trading at $121.43, UPRO is near the top of its 52-week range ($45.88 to $122.71), sitting just 1.0% below the high. This proximity to the peak suggests the stock is in an overbought territory, indicating potential for increased volatility or a pullback given its extended position and high beta of 3.08.

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Of course. Here is a fundamental analysis of UPRO based on the information provided.

1. Revenue & Profitability Analysis Based on the provided data, a standard revenue and profitability analysis cannot be performed for UPRO. This is because UPRO is not a traditional operating company but an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to deliver triple the daily return of the S&P 500. It does not generate revenue through the sale of goods or services, and its "profitability" is directly tied to the daily performance of its underlying index.

2. Financial Health Analysis The typical metrics for evaluating financial health, such as debt ratio and cash flow, are not applicable to this instrument. As an ETF, UPRO utilizes financial derivatives like futures and swaps to achieve its leveraged objective. Its primary risks are not related to corporate debt but to tracking error, volatility decay, and the performance of the financial instruments it holds. The fund's health is more a function of its counterparty risk and the management of its derivative positions than a standard balance sheet.

3. Operational Efficiency Analysis Analyzing operational efficiency through ratios like Return on Equity (ROE) or asset turnover is not relevant for UPRO. The key metric for evaluating a leveraged ETF is its efficiency in tracking its stated objective. This involves analyzing the fund's expense ratio (currently 0.91%), its historical tracking error relative to 3x the daily S&P 500 return, and the long-term impact of compounding daily returns, which can cause significant divergence from triple the index's return over extended periods.

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Based on the comprehensive analysis, UPRO is a highly specialized instrument designed for aggressive, short-term trading. Its current position near 52-week highs and strong recent momentum are compelling for a bullish outlook. However, its inherent structural risks, including extreme volatility and path dependency, make it exceptionally dangerous for long-term investors or those with low risk tolerance. Therefore, UPRO is not recommended as a core holding but may be suitable for traders with a very strong conviction in short-term market gains and a strict risk management strategy.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for UPRO.

12-Month Outlook for UPRO

1. Key Catalysts: The primary catalyst for UPRO is a sustained bullish rally in the S&P 500, driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings, and a "soft landing" for the economy. As a 3x leveraged ETF, UPRO would magnify any significant upward move in the broad market.

2. Potential Risks: The most significant risk is volatility decay, which can erode value even in a flat or choppy market. The current proximity to 52-week highs suggests heightened susceptibility to a sharp pullback. Given its high beta (3.08), any market downturn would be severely amplified, leading to substantial losses.

3. Outlook: While momentum is strong, UPRO's structure makes it exceptionally risky for a 12-month horizon. It is designed for daily trading, not long-term investment. The outlook is entirely dependent on the direction of the S&P 500, but structural factors make consistent outperformance over a year challenging. A target price is not appropriate due to its non-equity nature; performance is path-dependent, not destination-dependent. It is best suited for traders with a very strong short-term bullish conviction and a strict exit strategy.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about UPRO's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $119.67, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, UPRO has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Overall Assessment: UPRO has demonstrated strong performance with significant gains driven by its leveraged structure, though this comes with substantial volatility as evidenced by its high beta and deep maximum drawdown.

Short-term Performance: The stock has shown positive momentum, advancing 1.56% over one month and 6.71% over three months, notably outperforming the market by 3.34% in the latter period. This robust short-term performance reflects the leveraged ETF's characteristic of magnifiying underlying index moves.

Current Position: Trading at $121.43, UPRO is near the top of its 52-week range ($45.88 to $122.71), sitting just 1.0% below the high. This proximity to the peak suggests the stock is in an overbought territory, indicating potential for increased volatility or a pullback given its extended position and high beta of 3.08.

Of course. Here is a fundamental analysis of UPRO based on the information provided.

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1. Revenue & Profitability Analysis Based on the provided data, a standard revenue and profitability analysis cannot be performed for UPRO. This is because UPRO is not a traditional operating company but an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to deliver triple the daily return of the S&P 500. It does not generate revenue through the sale of goods or services, and its "profitability" is directly tied to the daily performance of its underlying index.

2. Financial Health Analysis The typical metrics for evaluating financial health, such as debt ratio and cash flow, are not applicable to this instrument. As an ETF, UPRO utilizes financial derivatives like futures and swaps to achieve its leveraged objective. Its primary risks are not related to corporate debt but to tracking error, volatility decay, and the performance of the financial instruments it holds. The fund's health is more a function of its counterparty risk and the management of its derivative positions than a standard balance sheet.

3. Operational Efficiency Analysis Analyzing operational efficiency through ratios like Return on Equity (ROE) or asset turnover is not relevant for UPRO. The key metric for evaluating a leveraged ETF is its efficiency in tracking its stated objective. This involves analyzing the fund's expense ratio (currently 0.91%), its historical tracking error relative to 3x the daily S&P 500 return, and the long-term impact of compounding daily returns, which can cause significant divergence from triple the index's return over extended periods.

Based on the limited valuation metrics provided, UPRO's current PE ratio of 28.97 suggests a premium valuation relative to the broader market, though this assessment is constrained by the absence of forward-looking indicators like PEG or forward PE. The lack of price-to-book, price-to-sales, and EV/EBITDA ratios prevents a comprehensive multi-factor valuation analysis, making it difficult to determine whether the stock is fundamentally overvalued or undervalued beyond this single metric.

Without available industry average data, a peer comparison cannot be conducted. This absence of contextual benchmarks means the valuation analysis remains incomplete, as the PE ratio's significance is largely dependent on sector-specific norms and growth expectations which are not provided. Investors should seek additional financial metrics and industry comparables to form a more robust valuation conclusion.

Of course. Here is a risk analysis for UPRO based on the provided metrics.

1. Volatility Risk UPRO exhibits extreme volatility risk, fundamentally driven by its daily 3x leverage objective. The provided Beta of 3.08 confirms the fund's designed sensitivity, moving approximately three times the magnitude of its underlying index (the S&P 500) on a daily basis. This effect is starkly illustrated by the catastrophic maximum drawdown of -48.99% over one year, demonstrating that during a sustained market downturn, losses can be nearly total and recovery exceptionally difficult due to the effects of volatility decay on a leveraged product.

2. Other Risks While short interest is not a direct concern, the primary additional risk is the structural complexity and cost of the fund itself. UPRO is not a substitute for a long-term stock holding; it is a financial derivative product subject to compounding issues that can cause significant deviation from its 3x long-term goal. Furthermore, while typically highly liquid, any disruption in the underlying futures or swap markets it uses for leverage could impact its tracking efficiency and create unexpected losses beyond simple market movement.