United States Oil Fund, LP
USO
$103.27
-2.98%
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is a commodity-tracking exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the daily price movements of light, sweet crude oil, primarily through positions in near-month NYMEX WTI futures contracts and, to a lesser extent, other oil-related instruments. Unlike an operating company, USO is a limited partnership structured as a passive investment vehicle, making it a distinct instrument whose returns are driven almost entirely by the crude oil futures curve rather than by corporate earnings, competitive dynamics, or management execution. The investor narrative around USO is therefore a macro bet on energy prices, shaped by OPEC+ supply policy, geopolitical risk premia, global demand expectations, and the persistent drag of roll yield and contango that erodes returns over time. The fund's dramatic 2026 price action — a sharp first-half rally followed by a violent third-quarter reversal — has thrust it back into the spotlight as traders debate whether the oil spike was a sustainable supply shock or a speculative blow-off top now unwinding.…
USO
United States Oil Fund, LP
$103.27
Investment Opinion: Should I buy USO Today?
Rating: Hold. USO is a tactical macro instrument, not a core holding; with no analyst coverage and a 25% three-month decline, the risk/reward is balanced but skewed to the downside until oil prices stabilize. The fund's 39.7% one-year gain and 49.8% YTD return are impressive but have been significantly eroded by the recent 25.1% three-month drop, leaving the current price 33% below its 52-week high. Without fundamental anchors, timing is critical, and the absence of analyst targets means investors must rely on crude oil market dynamics.
The supporting evidence is mixed: USO has outperformed SPY by 18.9 percentage points over one year and 40.4 points YTD, but it lags by 38.8 points over three months. The fund's 1.49 P/B ratio suggests a premium to NAV, which is unusual for a commodity ETF and could revert. The 31.25 trailing PE is not meaningful for a partnership, and the 0% dividend yield offers no income. Liquidity is high with 3.1 million shares traded daily, but the structural roll yield decay in contango environments erodes returns over time.
The biggest risks are a continued oil price decline toward the 52-week low of $65.99 (a 36% drop) and a potential premium-to-NAV collapse. The rating would upgrade to Buy if oil prices stabilize above $120 and the futures curve shifts to backwardation, or downgrade to Sell if prices break below $90. Currently, the stock appears overvalued relative to its NAV and vulnerable to further corrections, making a Hold appropriate for most investors.
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USO 12-Month Price Forecast
USO presents a balanced risk/reward with a slight bearish tilt due to the recent sharp reversal. The fund's long-term gains are impressive but vulnerable to further oil price corrections. Without analyst targets, sentiment is driven by crude market fundamentals. A base case of stabilization around $100-$120 seems most likely, but the probability of a bear case is significant. Upgrades would require a clear shift to backwardation and sustained oil price recovery; downgrades if prices break below $90.
Wall Street consensus
Insufficient analyst coverage available. The analyst data field is empty, with no consensus recommendation, no average price target, no Buy/Hold/Sell distribution, and no target range provided for USO. This is expected for a commodity-tracking ETF, which is not covered by sell-side equity analysts in the way operating companies are — there are no earnings estimates, revenue forecasts, or price targets to aggregate because the fund's value is derived from crude oil futures rather than corporate performance. Investors seeking directional views on USO should instead consult commodity strategists' WTI price forecasts, OPEC+ supply analysis, and energy market research rather than equity analyst ratings.
The absence of analyst coverage has practical implications: without a consensus target to anchor expectations, USO's price discovery relies entirely on the underlying crude oil futures market and fund flows, which can amplify volatility and lead to larger premiums or discounts to NAV during stress periods. The fund's extreme recent price action — a +49.75% YTD gain followed by a -25.12% 3-month decline and a -32.49% maximum drawdown — illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift in an instrument with no fundamental earnings anchor. Investors should treat USO as a tactical macro trading vehicle, size positions conservatively given its high volatility, and monitor crude oil inventories, OPEC+ decisions, and the futures curve shape as the primary drivers of forward returns rather than waiting for analyst price targets that will not materialize.
Bulls vs Bears: USO Investment Factors
The evidence currently leans bearish: the sharp 25% three-month decline, breakdown of momentum, and deep drawdown outweigh the still-positive 1-year gains. The most important tension is whether the recent oil price drop is a temporary correction within a longer bull market or the start of a deeper downtrend; resolution will hinge on OPEC+ supply decisions and global demand signals. Without analyst targets or fundamental anchors, USO remains a high-risk tactical instrument where timing is critical.
Bullish
- Strong 1-Year and YTD Gains: USO is up 39.69% over the trailing year and 49.75% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 20.74% and 9.36% respective returns. This demonstrates the fund's ability to capture powerful oil price rallies, with relative strength versus SPY of +18.95 points over 1 year and +40.39 points YTD.
- Recent Pullback Creates Potential Entry: The fund has corrected 25.12% over the past three months and 23.79% over the past month, pulling back to $103.27, which is 33% below its 52-week high of $154.08. For traders anticipating a rebound in oil prices, this pullback may offer a more attractive risk/reward entry point near support levels.
- Oil Remains a Geopolitical Hedge: As a pure play on crude oil, USO can serve as a portfolio hedge against geopolitical supply shocks or inflation surprises. The fund's strong 6-month gain of 49.75% (vs. SPY's 9.16%) highlights its potential to deliver outsized returns during energy market dislocations.
- High Liquidity and Tight Tracking: USO trades with substantial daily volume (3.1 million shares on the latest session) and is designed to track near-month WTI futures, offering liquid exposure to oil without the complexities of futures accounts. This makes it a preferred vehicle for tactical macro trades.
Bearish
- Severe Recent Momentum Breakdown: USO has plunged 23.79% in the past month and 25.12% in the past three months, massively underperforming SPY by 22.11 and 38.83 percentage points, respectively. This sharp reversal signals a loss of bullish momentum and suggests the prior uptrend has broken down.
- Deep Drawdown from Peak: The fund has suffered a maximum drawdown of -32.49% from its 52-week high of $154.08, with the current price at $103.27 representing a 33% decline from that peak. Such a severe drawdown indicates high volatility and the risk of further losses if oil prices continue to correct.
- Structural Roll Yield Decay: As a futures-based commodity ETF, USO is subject to roll costs and contango, which erode returns over time. In a contango environment, the fund must repeatedly sell expiring contracts at lower prices and buy longer-dated contracts at higher prices, creating a persistent drag that can compound losses during sideways or declining oil markets.
- No Analyst Coverage or Fundamental Anchor: USO lacks sell-side analyst coverage, consensus targets, and traditional fundamental metrics like earnings or cash flow. This absence of an earnings anchor means price discovery relies solely on futures markets and fund flows, which can amplify volatility and lead to larger premiums/discounts to NAV.
USO Technical Analysis
USO is in a powerful but sharply reversing uptrend: the fund is up 39.69% over the trailing year and an extraordinary 49.75% year-to-date, yet the current price of $103.27 sits at roughly 41.7% of its 52-week range (low $65.99, high $154.08), meaning it has surrendered a large chunk of its earlier gains and is now in the lower-middle of its annual band. This positioning is characteristic of a momentum trade that has broken down rather than a stock consolidating near highs — the fund peaked well above $150 in late April and has been in a steady slide since, with a maximum drawdown of -32.49% from that peak. The 1-year gain remains intact, but the technical picture has deteriorated materially, signaling that the prior uptrend is under serious threat.
Short-term momentum is decisively negative and diverging violently from the longer-term trend: the 1-month change is -23.79% and the 3-month change is -25.12%, both in stark contrast to the +39.69% 1-year and +49.75% 6-month figures. This is a classic trend-reversal signature — the 6-month gain of nearly 50% was almost entirely front-loaded into the first four months of 2026, and the subsequent three months have erased a quarter of the fund's value. Relative strength confirms the deceleration: USO trails SPY by -22.11 percentage points over 1 month and -38.83 points over 3 months, even though it still leads SPY by +18.95 points over 1 year and +40.59 points over 6 months. The most recent session alone saw a -2.98% decline on volume of roughly 3.1 million shares, indicating selling pressure remains active rather than exhausted.
Key technical levels are now clearly defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $65.99, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $154.08, with the current $103.27 price roughly 36% above support and 33% below resistance. A breakdown below the recent June lows near $103 would open the door toward the $90s and ultimately the $65.99 floor, while any recovery would first need to reclaim the $120-$125 area that marked the June breakdown zone before challenging the $150+ highs. Volatility is extreme — a -32.49% peak-to-trough drawdown within a single year and a 1-month swing of nearly -24% underscore that this is a high-beta, event-driven instrument where position sizing and stop discipline are paramount; the fund's daily-rebalanced futures structure also introduces roll-yield decay that can compound losses in contango environments.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-32.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$66-$154
Price range past year
Annual Return
+39.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | USO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -23.8% | -1.7% |
| 3m | -25.1% | +13.7% |
| 6m | +49.8% | +9.2% |
| 1y | +39.7% | +20.7% |
| ytd | +49.8% | +9.4% |
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USO Fundamental Analysis
Traditional fundamental analysis is largely inapplicable to USO because it is a commodity-tracking partnership rather than an operating business; the fund generates no revenue from products or services, and its quarterly financial statements, income statement, cash flow, and revenue segment data are all reported as empty or unavailable in the provided dataset. The relevant "growth" metric is the fund's net asset value per share, which is driven by crude oil futures prices and the shape of the futures curve rather than by any corporate growth engine. The +49.75% year-to-date and +39.69% 1-year price changes reflect a powerful oil price rally in the first half of 2026, but the -25.12% 3-month reversal shows how quickly those gains can evaporate when the underlying commodity corrects. Investors should understand that USO's returns are structurally eroded by roll costs and expense ratios over long holding periods, making it a tactical trading vehicle rather than a buy-and-hold growth investment.
Profitability metrics for USO are not meaningful in the conventional sense: the fund reports no net income, gross margin, or operating margin because it does not sell goods or services, and the quarterly financials and financial ratios datasets are empty. The reported trailing PE ratio of 31.25 and price-to-book of 1.49 are artifacts of the fund's partnership accounting and NAV-based structure rather than indicators of earnings power or book value in the traditional corporate sense. What matters for USO holders is the fund's tracking performance relative to spot WTI crude and the cumulative drag from contango, management fees, and brokerage costs — none of which are disclosed in the provided data. The absence of profitability data reinforces that this is a pass-through commodity vehicle whose "earnings" are simply the mark-to-market change in its futures positions.
Balance sheet and cash flow analysis is similarly not applicable: USO holds futures contracts and Treasury collateral rather than operating assets, and the cash flow, financial ratios, and historical ratios datasets are all empty, so debt-to-equity, free cash flow, ROE, and liquidity ratios cannot be computed from the provided inputs. The fund's financial health is instead a function of its ability to maintain collateral sufficient to meet margin calls on its futures positions during volatile oil price swings — a real risk given the -32.49% drawdown and the daily rebalancing mandate. The reported price-to-book of 1.49 is the only balance-sheet-adjacent metric available, and it reflects the relationship between the fund's market price and its NAV rather than any corporate leverage or cash generation. Investors should treat USO's "fundamentals" as synonymous with crude oil market conditions, not corporate financial statements.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is USO Overvalued?
Because USO is a commodity ETF with no net income in the traditional corporate sense, the trailing PE ratio of 31.25 is not a meaningful primary valuation metric — it is an accounting artifact of partnership-level mark-to-market gains rather than an earnings multiple investors can anchor to. The more relevant valuation anchor for a commodity fund is its price-to-book (NAV) ratio of 1.49, which indicates the fund is trading at a premium to its underlying net asset value, a condition that can arise from market demand, premium/discount dynamics, or timing mismatches between the market price and the fund's futures-based NAV. No forward PE, PS, EV/Sales, or forward estimates are available in the provided data, so a growth-expectations gap analysis cannot be performed.
Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of industry-average valuation multiples in the provided dataset; the valuation data contains only USO's own pb_ratio of 1.49, pe_trailing of 31.25, and a dividend yield of 0.0%, with no sector or peer benchmarks supplied. Consequently, a quantified premium or discount versus the asset management or commodity-fund peer group cannot be computed from the available inputs. Qualitatively, commodity-tracking ETFs typically trade very close to NAV (premiums/discounts of a few basis points to a few percent), so a P/B of 1.49 is unusually elevated for a passive futures fund and may reflect either a temporary premium or a mismatch between the reported book value and the fund's current mark-to-market collateral. Without peer data, this cannot be confirmed.
Historical context is also unavailable: the historical ratios dataset is empty, so USO's current PE of 31.25 and P/B of 1.49 cannot be positioned within the fund's own historical valuation band. This is a material analytical gap, because for a commodity ETF the relevant historical comparison is the fund's premium/discount to NAV over time and its price relative to spot and futures crude — neither of which is provided. Absent that context, the valuation read is necessarily incomplete, and investors should rely on real-time NAV premium/discount data and the shape of the WTI futures curve rather than on the static multiples reported here.
PE
31.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
16.1x
Industry PE ~16.1x*
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks for USO stem from its structure as a commodity futures fund. The fund has no earnings, cash flow, or traditional financial metrics; its value is derived from crude oil futures and collateral. The -32.49% maximum drawdown and 25.12% three-month decline illustrate the potential for rapid capital erosion. Additionally, the fund's daily rebalancing and roll yield in contango environments can compound losses over time, and the reported P/B of 1.49 indicates a premium to NAV that may not be sustainable. Operational risks include the need to manage margin calls during volatile oil price swings, which could force asset sales at inopportune times.
Market and competitive risks are significant. USO is a passive ETF with no competitive moat; it faces competition from other oil ETFs and futures-based products, though its size and liquidity provide some advantage. The fund is highly sensitive to oil market dynamics, including OPEC+ policy, geopolitical events, and global demand shifts. Its beta to the market is likely low or negative, but its volatility is extreme, with a 1-month swing of -23.79%. Regulatory risks include potential changes to commodity futures regulations or tax treatment of partnerships. Recent news is absent, but the sharp oil price reversal suggests emerging threats from oversupply or demand destruction.
Worst-case scenario: A sustained decline in oil prices due to a global recession or OPEC+ price war could push USO toward its 52-week low of $65.99, representing a 36% loss from the current $103.27. If the fund also faces a premium-to-NAV collapse, losses could exceed 40%. The maximum drawdown of -32.49% from the peak already demonstrates the potential for severe losses within a year. Investors should be prepared for the possibility of losing more than a third of their investment in a adverse scenario.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial and operational: USO's futures-based structure exposes it to roll yield decay in contango environments, which erodes returns over time, and the fund has already suffered a 32.49% maximum drawdown and a 25.12% three-month decline. Market and competitive risks include extreme sensitivity to oil market dynamics—OPEC+ policy, geopolitical events, and demand shifts—with no competitive moat as a passive ETF. Macro risks include a global recession that destroys oil demand or a strengthening U.S. dollar that pressures commodity prices, potentially driving USO toward its 52-week low of $65.99 (a 36% drop). Company-specific risks include the absence of analyst coverage and fundamental anchors, which can amplify volatility and lead to larger premiums/discounts to NAV, as well as the reported 1.49 P/B premium that could collapse. Ranked by severity: oil price decline, roll yield decay, premium-to-NAV collapse, and regulatory/tax changes for partnerships.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) targets $100-$120 as oil stabilizes in the $70-$80 range with OPEC+ maintaining production and modest demand growth; a bull case (25% probability) targets $140-$154 on a supply shock from geopolitical tensions or deeper OPEC+ cuts driving WTI above $100 and shifting the futures curve to backwardation; and a bear case (25% probability) targets $66-$90 on a global recession or OPEC+ price war, with contango exacerbating losses. The base case is most likely, assuming no major supply disruptions and steady global economic growth. However, the recent 25% three-month decline and broken momentum tilt the risk toward the bear case. Key catalysts include OPEC+ decisions, Middle East developments, and inventory data.
USO's valuation is not meaningfully captured by traditional metrics like the trailing PE of 31.25, which is an accounting artifact of partnership mark-to-market gains rather than an earnings multiple. The more relevant anchor is the price-to-book (NAV) ratio of 1.49, indicating the fund trades at a premium to its net asset value—unusual for a passive commodity ETF and a potential source of downside if the premium reverts. No peer or historical valuation data is available to contextualize this premium, but commodity ETFs typically trade very close to NAV. The market appears to be pricing in a modest premium, possibly reflecting demand for oil exposure or timing mismatches between market price and futures-based NAV. Overall, the valuation suggests USO is not cheap relative to its underlying assets, and the premium adds risk independent of oil price movements.
USO is not a traditional stock but a commodity ETF, so its merit as a buy depends on your view of crude oil prices rather than corporate fundamentals. The fund has delivered a 39.69% one-year gain and 49.75% YTD return, but it has plunged 25.12% over the past three months and sits 33% below its 52-week high of $154.08. The biggest downside risk is a continued oil price decline toward the 52-week low of $65.99, representing a 36% loss from the current $103.27. With no analyst targets or earnings anchor, the risk/reward is balanced but skewed to the downside until oil prices stabilize. It could be a good tactical buy for experienced traders anticipating a supply-driven rebound, but it is not suitable for conservative or long-term investors.
USO is suitable primarily for short-term tactical trading, not long-term holding, due to its structural roll yield decay in contango environments and extreme volatility (32.49% max drawdown, 25.12% three-month decline). The fund's daily-rebalanced futures structure means returns can deviate significantly from spot oil over longer periods, and the 0% dividend yield offers no income. Its high liquidity (3.1 million shares daily) and tight tracking of near-month WTI futures make it a preferred vehicle for tactical macro trades, but earnings visibility is nonexistent without analyst coverage. A suggested minimum holding period is three to six months, aligned with a specific oil price catalyst, and positions should be sized conservatively with stop-loss discipline. Long-term investors seeking energy exposure might consider equities with dividends and fundamental anchors instead.