UVXY
UVXYProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) is an exchange-traded fund that provides leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures contracts in the derivatives market.
It is designed as a tactical trading instrument that typically experiences significant price decay over time due to contango in the VIX futures curve.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy UVXY Today?
Based on a comprehensive analysis, UVXY is not recommended for purchase by long-term investors.
Technical Analysis & Structure: UVXY is not a stock but a short-term trading instrument that exhibits catastrophic long-term price decay. Its value is systematically eroded by structural costs and it behaves as a leveraged bet against market stability. Trading near its 52-week low does not indicate a bargain but rather reflects its inherent design to lose value over time.
Valuation & Fundamentals: Traditional fundamental and valuation metrics are irrelevant, as UVXY has no earnings, assets, or revenue. Its "value" is purely a function of VIX futures market dynamics, specifically contango, which consistently works against long-term holders.
Risk Assessment: The risks are extreme and structural, not situational. The product's negative beta and massive historical drawdowns highlight its speculative nature, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders executing very short-term, high-risk strategies. For nearly all investors, the risk of permanent capital loss is unacceptably high.
*Buy Recommendation: STRONG SELL.* *UVXY is designed for rapid value decay and carries extreme risk. It is fundamentally unsuitable as a buy-and-hold investment and should be avoided by all but the most experienced traders who fully understand its complex, high-risk mechanics. This product is a wealth destruction vehicle for long-term portfolios.*
UVXY 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on a 12-month horizon, the outlook for UVXY is extremely bearish due to its structural flaws. The primary catalyst for any price increase would be a sudden, sustained spike in market volatility (VIX), but these events are typically short-lived. The overwhelming risk is the permanent erosion of value caused by the constant roll yield in a state of contango, which is the usual condition of the VIX futures market. Given its design to decay over time, UVXY's price is expected to trend significantly lower over the next year, making any price target effectively zero for a long-term holder. This instrument should only be considered for speculative, short-term trades by experienced traders.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about UVXY's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $37.02, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: UVXY Investment Factors
Overall, UVXY has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Reverse Stock Split: Reverse split may attract institutional investors by increasing share price.
- Leveraged Volatility Strategy: Designed to profit from short-term market uncertainty and volatility spikes.
- Top Performing ETF: Recent inclusion in top performing leveraged ETFs list indicates strong momentum.
Bearish
- Volatility Decay: Leveraged structure suffers from decay during stable or declining volatility periods.
- High Risk Instrument: Extremely volatile and unsuitable for long-term holding or inexperienced investors.
- No Dividend History: ETF does not pay dividends, limiting income potential for investors.
- Reverse Split Concerns: Reverse split often indicates previous significant share price decline.
UVXY Technical Analysis
Of course. Here is the technical analysis of UVXY's price performance.
Overall Assessment UVXY has experienced catastrophic declines over the past one and three months, significantly underperforming the broader market and reinforcing its reputation as a product subject to severe long-term decay.
Short-term Performance The stock has shown aggressive negative momentum, falling 15.64% over one month and 32.11% over three months. UVXY's relative strength figure of -35.48% indicates it is dramatically underperforming the market benchmark, a typical characteristic for this volatility-linked product during stable or rising market periods.
Current Position Trading at $35.61, UVXY sits near the absolute bottom of its 52-week range ($33.95 to $266.05), approximately 2% above its 52-week low. While this proximity to the lower bound suggests the instrument is deeply oversold from a purely technical perspective, its profoundly negative beta of -3.4 confirms it is behaving as designed—moving inversely and with extreme leverage to market swings. The massive 85.64% maximum drawdown underscores the extreme risk of capital erosion inherent to this product.
| Period | UVXY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.4% | +1.3% |
| 3m | -40.7% | +5.7% |
| 6m | -56.8% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -61.3% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +5.9% | +1.1% |
UVXY Fundamental Analysis
Based on the lack of available data, a comprehensive fundamental analysis of UVXY cannot be performed. UVXY is an Exchange Traded Note (ETN) designed to track short-term volatility futures, not a traditional operating company with standard financial statements. It does not generate revenue or maintain assets in the manner of a typical corporation for which revenue growth, profitability, or operational efficiency ratios would be meaningful.
The structure of UVXY as a derivatives-based product means conventional debt and cash flow analysis is inapplicable. Its value is derived solely from its underlying benchmark, and its performance is heavily influenced by futures contract rolling costs and market volatility, not corporate financial health. Investors should focus on the product's prospectus, tracking error, and the dynamics of the VIX futures market rather than standard financial ratios.
Assessing operational metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) or asset turnover is not relevant for UVXY, as it has no equity or operational assets to turnover. The primary consideration for this instrument is its objective to provide daily leveraged exposure to short-term volatility indices, which inherently involves significant decay and high risk over holding periods longer than one day.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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As a leveraged ETF tracking short-term VIX futures, UVXY does not have meaningful traditional valuation metrics like PE, PB, or PS ratios. The fund's value is primarily driven by volatility expectations, futures contango/backwardation, and time decay rather than earnings or book value. UVXY is designed for short-term trading and consistently loses value over time due to the constant roll cost of VIX futures, making it unsuitable for standard equity valuation approaches.
Given UVXY's unique structure as a volatility product, traditional peer comparison with equity securities is not applicable. The fund's "valuation" is better assessed through VIX futures term structure, implied volatility levels, and the magnitude of contango in the VIX futures curve. Unlike conventional stocks, UVXY's performance is inversely related to market stability and should be evaluated based on volatility expectations rather than comparative financial ratios.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: UVXY exhibits extreme negative beta (-3.43), indicating it moves strongly opposite the broader market, which inherently creates high volatility risk. This is confirmed by its severe 1-year maximum drawdown of -85.64%, demonstrating potential for catastrophic losses during sustained market gains. The leveraged nature compounds this volatility, making it unsuitable for long-term holding.
Other Risks: While the absence of short interest reduces immediate squeeze risk, UVXY faces structural decay from constant futures rolling in contango, which systematically erodes value over time. Its complex leveraged structure also introduces tracking error risk and liquidity concerns during extreme market stress, despite typically high trading volumes. These intrinsic product risks outweigh temporary market sentiment factors.
FAQs
Bearish. UVXY is unsuitable for most investors due to its structural decay from constant futures rolling, which erodes value over time, and its extreme volatility and massive historical drawdowns. It is designed only for highly experienced, speculative traders seeking short-term bets on a sharp spike in market volatility. Long-term investors and those with low risk tolerance should strictly avoid it.
Based on the unique nature of UVXY as a leveraged volatility product, I cannot determine if it is overvalued or undervalued using traditional valuation frameworks. It is a trading instrument, not a stock, and therefore has no intrinsic value to compare against a market price.
Standard valuation metrics like P/E, P/B, or P/S ratios are meaningless for UVXY. Its value is not tied to earnings or corporate assets but to the price of VIX futures contracts. Instead of valuation, the relevant assessments are its tracking accuracy to its benchmark and the cost of its constant futures roll in a typically contangoed market.
The "value" of UVXY is purely a function of market sentiment and expectations for future volatility. It is structurally designed to lose value over time due to the negative roll yield from contango in the VIX futures curve. Therefore, it is more accurate to view it as always being in a state of long-term structural decay rather than being fairly valued or mispriced. For any holding period beyond a single day, the product's expected value declines.
Of course. As a risk management analyst, here are the key risks of holding the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), ordered by importance.
1. Structural Decay Risk: UVXY is designed to provide daily leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures, and the mechanics of rolling these futures contracts in a market structure that is typically in "contango" (where longer-dated futures are more expensive) systematically erodes the fund's value over time, making it virtually guaranteed to lose money in stable or rising markets. 2. Extreme Volatility and Drawdown Risk: Due to its high negative beta (-3.4), UVXY is engineered to move violently in the opposite direction of the market, leading to catastrophic potential losses, as evidenced by its 1-year maximum drawdown of -85.64%, which can decimate capital during sustained market rallies. 3. Leverage and Compounding Risk: The fund's use of leverage (aiming for 1.5x daily returns) magnifies losses disproportionately, especially during periods of high volatility, and the effects of daily rebalancing and compounding can cause significant tracking error against the long-term performance of its underlying index. 4. Product Liquidity and Closure Risk: While UVXY typically has high trading volume, it is a complex ETN (Exchange-Traded Note), which is an unsecured debt obligation of the issuer, introducing counter-party risk and the potential for the product to be liquidated or closed by the issuer during periods of extreme market stress or if it becomes unprofitable to manage.
Of course. Here is a professional forecast for UVXY through 2026.
UVXY Stock Forecast for 2026
1. Target Price Range: Given the structural decay inherent in VIX futures products, a forward price target is highly speculative and functionally misleading. Base Case (2026): Effectively zero due to the mathematical certainty of value erosion (volatility decay and contango). Bull Case: A price surge to $70-$100+ is possible only if a major, sustained market crisis causes a prolonged "backwardation" in the VIX futures curve, but this scenario is temporary and would rapidly reverse.
2. Key Growth Catalysts (for a temporary price increase): * A severe, protracted equity market crash causing a sustained spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). * A "black swan" event (e.g., geopolitical conflict, systemic financial failure) that creates persistent market fear. * A shift in the VIX futures market from its usual state of contango to backwardation, temporarily halting the product's decay.
3. Main Assumptions: * The VIX futures market will remain in a state of contango for the vast majority of the period. * No permanent, structural changes will occur to eliminate the roll yield cost. * UVXY will continue its daily reset mechanism, making it unsuitable for long-term holding.
4. Uncertainty & Final Outlook: This forecast carries extreme uncertainty and is not a viable long-term investment thesis. UVXY is designed for short-term trading, not multi-year holding. The overwhelming expectation is for UVXY's value to trend toward zero over time, with any price rallies being sharp, unpredictable, and fleeting. It should be avoided by all but the most sophisticated speculators.