ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF

Based on the comprehensive analysis, UVXY is not recommended as a buy for long-term investors or for those seeking a sustainable investment.

As a short-term trading instrument designed to profit from sudden spikes in market fear, UVXY suffers from severe structural decay due to contango in VIX futures, which consistently erodes its value over time. Its catastrophic -85% drawdown over the past year highlights its extreme risk and unsuitability for holding periods longer than a few days. This product should only be considered by highly experienced traders who understand its mechanics and can actively manage the immense risks for brief, tactical hedging or speculation.

*This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis, the 12-month outlook for UVXY is profoundly negative. The primary catalyst for any price increase would be a severe, sustained market shock causing a massive spike in the VIX; however, this is unpredictable and any gains would be temporary. The overwhelming risk is the structural decay from contango, which guarantees significant value erosion over time, making a 12-month hold almost certain to result in substantial losses. Given its historical performance and structural flaws, a target price is not applicable, and the expectation is for the price to trend significantly lower from its current level, barring a black-swan event. This instrument is strictly for short-term, high-risk tactical trading by sophisticated investors.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $40.03, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, UVXY has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Overall Assessment

UVXY has experienced substantial volatility and significant declines over the past year, with a current price far below its 52-week high, reflecting its highly leveraged and decay-prone nature as a short-term VIX product.

Short-term Performance

The stock shows mixed short-term signals, with a modest 1-month decline of -3.57% contrasted by a steep 3-month drop of -28.2%. Despite this weak absolute performance, UVXY has slightly outperformed the market by 30.05% over three months, though this relative strength stems from the fund's inverse correlation to equity markets during potential stress periods rather than sustainable gains.

Current Position

Trading at $40.03, UVXY sits near the lower end of its 52-week range ($33.95-$266.05), approximately 85% below the yearly peak. This positioning suggests the fund is deeply oversold, though the extreme negative beta of -3.34 indicates it remains highly sensitive to market volatility swings and susceptible to further decay during stable periods.

Based on the limited information provided, a comprehensive fundamental analysis of UVXY cannot be conducted. This appears to be an exchange-traded product (ETP) tracking short-term VIX futures.

Without access to standard financial statements like income statements or balance sheets, traditional metrics such as revenue, profit margins, debt ratios, and return on equity are not applicable. Investors should focus on the product's prospectus, tracking error relative to its benchmark, and the mechanics of contango in the VIX futures market, which typically erodes value over time.

Valuation metrics cannot be meaningfully applied to UVXY due to its unique structure as a short-term VIX futures ETF. This product is designed to track daily volatility movements rather than generate earnings or grow book value, making traditional valuation ratios irrelevant. The absence of calculable metrics reflects UVXY's nature as a trading instrument rather than an equity investment.

UVXY operates in a specialized niche without direct peers, and volatility products lack conventional industry benchmarks for comparison. The product's value is derived from futures contract pricing and volatility expectations, not from business fundamentals that would support peer analysis. Investors should evaluate UVXY based on volatility term structure and contango/backwardation conditions rather than traditional valuation frameworks.

Of course. Here is a risk analysis for UVXY based on the provided metrics.

1. Volatility Risk: UVXY exhibits extreme volatility risk, as evidenced by its profoundly negative Beta of -3.35. This indicates the fund is designed to move inversely and with significant leverage to the overall market, meaning it will typically experience sharp gains during market downturns but suffer severe losses in stable or rising markets. This inherent characteristic is directly responsible for the catastrophic maximum drawdown of -85.64% over the past year, demonstrating that holding this product through a bull market can lead to near-total loss of capital.

2. Other Risks: As a complex exchange-traded product (ETP), UVXY carries substantial structural risks beyond volatility. The absence of reported short interest is typical and does not imply safety; it often reflects that the product is generally used for very short-term speculation or hedging rather than as a long-term short target. Critically, UVXY is subject to relentless decay from contango in VIX futures contracts, which inexorably erodes its value over time, making it unsuitable for any buy-and-hold strategy.