Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
VGKVGK is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers broad exposure to stocks from major European markets.
It provides investors a straightforward way to gain diversified access to the economic performance of publicly traded companies across the European continent.
Updated: February 19, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VGK Today?
Based on the provided analysis, here is an assessment of the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK).
Technical Analysis: VGK exhibits strong momentum, trading near its 52-week high after a period of significant outperformance. While this indicates robust investor demand, it also suggests the ETF may be overbought in the short term, leaving limited near-term upside before a potential consolidation.
Fundamentals & Valuation: A comprehensive evaluation is constrained by the lack of fundamental data. The available valuation metrics (P/E of 19.15, P/B of 1.28) suggest VGK is fairly valued on an absolute basis, but its attractiveness relative to peers or the broader market cannot be determined without comparative data.
Risk: The risk profile appears standard for a major regional ETF. Its volatility is in line with global equities, and its high liquidity is a positive. The primary risk is its concentrated exposure to the macroeconomic and geopolitical fortunes of Europe.
Buy Recommendation:
VGK presents a compelling technical picture of strength and momentum, making it a candidate for investors bullish on European equities. However, the decision is based almost entirely on recent price action, as the absence of fundamental and comparative valuation metrics is a significant limitation. For investors seeking diversified exposure to Europe and who are comfortable with the regional risks, VGK's technical strength supports a cautious buy, with an awareness that it may be prone to a pullback after its strong run.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
VGK 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK):
The primary catalyst for VGK over the next year will be the health of the European economy; a "soft landing" scenario with moderating inflation and a return to growth would likely propel the ETF higher, continuing its current momentum. The main risk is macroeconomic and geopolitical, including the potential for an economic downturn within the Eurozone, persistent inflation requiring more aggressive central bank action, or an escalation of regional conflicts. While no specific analyst target is available, the strong technical performance suggests a potential for further upside, but the fair valuation and overbought conditions indicate gains may be modest and the price could be volatile, likely fluctuating within a range defined by key technical support and resistance levels rather than trending sharply in one direction.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $89.14, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: VGK Investment Factors
Overall, VGK has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong Relative Performance: VGK outperformed major US ETFs like VOO and SPY by 79% this year.
- Favorable Long-Term Outlook: Goldman Sachs expects European equities to beat US stocks over the next decade.
- Solid Euro and Earnings: VGK's gains are driven by a strong euro and robust earnings growth.
- Top Performing ETF: VGK was Vanguard's best-performing ETF in 2025 with no US stock exposure.
Bearish
- European Fiscal Risks: Potential fiscal uncertainties in Europe could impact VGK's performance.
- Energy Supply Concerns: Risks remain from European energy supply disruptions and geopolitical events.
- Neutral Near-Term Bias: Near and mid-term readings are neutral, moderating long-term positive bias.
- Geopolitical Overhang: Performance partly driven by US market fears, which may not persist.
VGK Technical Analysis
VGK has demonstrated strong performance with significant multi-month gains and notable market outperformance.
The ETF has delivered robust short-term returns, advancing 4.92% over one month and 9.13% over three months while outperforming the broader market by 7.28% during this period. Despite its beta of 1.05 indicating slightly above-average volatility, these results highlight substantial relative strength.
Currently trading at $89.14, VGK sits just 0.9% below its 52-week high of $89.94, positioning it near the upper end of its yearly range. With minimal distance from its peak and a maximum drawdown of only -14.65% over the past year, the ETF appears overbought rather than oversold at current levels.
| Period | VGK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.9% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +9.1% | +1.9% |
| 6m | +14.2% | +6.5% |
| 1y | +26.9% | +12.1% |
| ytd | +5.4% | +0.2% |
VGK Fundamental Analysis
Based on the information provided, no fundamental analysis is possible.
The absence of both recent quarterly reports and financial ratios prevents any meaningful assessment of VGK's operational or financial performance. Without this critical data, standard metrics such as revenue growth, profitability, debt levels, and return on equity cannot be calculated or evaluated.
Therefore, a substantive analysis of financial health and operational efficiency cannot be conducted. You would need to obtain the company's financial statements to proceed with a fundamental review.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Based on the available TTM PE ratio of 19.15, the stock appears to be fairly valued relative to broader market averages. The price-to-book ratio of 1.28 further indicates the market price is only modestly above the company's book value, which does not suggest significant overvaluation from an asset perspective. Without a forward PE or PEG ratio, the assessment is limited to historical earnings.
A peer comparison cannot be conducted as industry average data is unavailable. Therefore, it is impossible to determine if the current valuation multiples represent a premium or discount relative to the sector. Any definitive conclusion on relative valuation would require relevant industry benchmark data for a proper contextual analysis.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility risk appears manageable, with a Beta of 1.05 indicating the fund tracks global equity market movements closely with only slight outperformance during uptrends. The 1-year maximum drawdown of -14.65% demonstrates moderate downside protection relative to broader market declines, suggesting typical equity volatility rather than extreme swings.
Other risks are tempered by robust market positioning, evidenced by the absence of notable short interest, which signals strong investor conviction and limited bearish sentiment. High liquidity, characteristic of major ETFs like VGK, ensures efficient trading and price discovery, though it remains fully exposed to systemic risks affecting European equities.
FAQs
Bullish - VGK appears attractive for long-term investors seeking international diversification. The ETF shows strong momentum with significant outperformance versus US markets, supported by solid euro strength and earnings growth. While European fiscal/energy risks remain, Goldman Sachs' decade-long bullish outlook on European equities provides compelling fundamental support. Best suited for investors comfortable with typical market volatility and geopolitical exposure.
Based on the limited data, VGK appears to be fairly valued. The PE ratio of 19.15 is broadly in line with long-term market averages (e.g., the S&P 500), and the Price-to-Book ratio of 1.28 suggests the stock is trading close to its tangible asset value. However, the assessment is constrained without key metrics like a forward PE or industry averages for comparison. The fair valuation primarily reflects current earnings levels, but the lack of growth metrics (like a PEG ratio) or sector context prevents a more definitive conclusion on whether it offers a discount or premium.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding VGK:
1. Market Concentration Risk: The fund is fully exposed to systemic downturns affecting the European equity market, with no inherent downside protection beyond typical equity volatility. 2. Valuation/Timing Risk: Trading near its 52-week high, the ETF appears overbought, increasing the risk of a price pullback or consolidation. 3. Currency Risk: As a US-listed ETF holding European stocks, its value is exposed to fluctuations in the Euro (and other European currencies) relative to the US Dollar.
Based on the available analysis, my forecast for the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) through 2026 is as follows. Assuming the European Central Bank successfully engineers a soft landing and corporate earnings show moderate growth, a base case target price range is $95-$105, with a bull case of $110-$120 driven by stronger-than-expected economic integration and a weaker Euro boosting exports. Key growth drivers are a resilient Eurozone economy avoiding recession and sustained corporate earnings momentum, though these are tempered by significant geopolitical risks and potential for energy price volatility. This forecast is highly uncertain, heavily dependent on macroeconomic outcomes rather than company-specific fundamentals, and should be viewed as a speculative range.