Varonis Systems
VRNS
$48.19
+6.19%
Varonis Systems is a cybersecurity vendor focused on data privacy and security, providing software that helps organizations protect sensitive data from insider threats and cyberattacks. The company is a niche leader in data security and analytics, distinguishing itself with a platform that combines data classification, access governance, and threat detection. Currently, the stock is driven by its ongoing cloud transition from on-premises to SaaS-based products, with investors closely watching the pace of subscription revenue growth and margin expansion as the company navigates this transformation.…
VRNS
Varonis Systems
$48.19
VRNS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Varonis Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $62.65 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$62.65
8 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
8
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $63
Analyst target range
Varonis is covered by 8 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $0.69, with a range of $0.30 to $1.25, implying significant uncertainty. The average revenue estimate is $1.02 billion. While specific price targets are not provided, the forward PE of 116.5x suggests analysts expect substantial earnings growth. The wide range in EPS estimates (from $0.30 to $1.25) indicates high uncertainty about the pace of the cloud transition and margin improvement. The limited number of analysts (8) is typical for a mid-cap stock, and the lack of institutional ratings data means we cannot assess recent upgrades or downgrades. The implied upside or downside cannot be calculated without target prices, but the consensus appears cautiously optimistic given the expected return to profitability.
VRNS Technical Analysis
Varonis is in a strong recovery uptrend, with the stock up 35.3% in the past month and 120.6% in the past three months, though it remains 13.4% lower over the past year. The current price of $44.53 sits at 69.7% of its 52-week range ($19.70 to $63.90), indicating it has rebounded significantly from lows but still has room to retest prior highs. This positioning suggests bullish momentum but not yet overextended, as the stock is still below its 52-week high. Short-term momentum is accelerating sharply, with the 1-month change of +35.3% far outpacing the 3-month change of +120.6%, indicating a recent surge in buying pressure. The 1-year decline of -13.4% contrasts with the strong 3-month rally, suggesting a potential trend reversal from a prior downtrend. The stock's beta of 0.828 indicates it is less volatile than the market, which is unusual given the recent sharp moves, but the relative strength versus SPY over 3 months is +109.4%, confirming strong outperformance. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $19.70, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $63.90. A breakout above $63.90 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $19.70 would indicate renewed weakness. The stock's beta of 0.828 suggests it is 17% less volatile than the S&P 500, which may provide some downside protection during market selloffs.
Beta
0.83
0.83x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-68.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$20-$64
Price range past year
Annual Return
-4.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VRNS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +44.5% | +1.4% |
| 3m | +108.3% | +7.4% |
| 6m | +41.9% | +8.6% |
| 1y | -4.5% | +20.3% |
| ytd | +50.4% | +10.3% |
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VRNS Fundamental Analysis
Varonis has not yet reported recent quarterly revenue in the provided data, but the estimated revenue for the current fiscal year is $1.02 billion, indicating a large-scale business. The company is in a cloud transition, which typically pressures near-term revenue growth as customers shift from upfront licenses to subscription models, but the long-term growth trajectory is expected to accelerate as SaaS revenue scales. The net margin is -20.7%, reflecting ongoing losses as the company invests in its cloud platform. Gross margin is strong at 79.1%, typical for software companies, but operating margin is -23.5%, showing high operating expenses relative to revenue. The company is not yet profitable, with a trailing EPS of -$0.03 and a negative net margin, but the forward EPS estimate of $0.69 suggests a path to profitability in the coming year. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 1.97, indicating adequate short-term liquidity, but a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96 suggests moderate leverage. Return on equity is -21.6%, reflecting losses, but free cash flow data is not available. The company's ability to fund its cloud transition internally may depend on improving cash flow from operations as subscription revenue grows.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is VRNS Overvalued?
Since net income is negative (trailing EPS -$0.03), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 6.79x, while the EV/Sales ratio is 7.57x. The forward PE of 116.5x is not meaningful due to current losses but implies high earnings growth expectations. Compared to the software industry average PS ratio (typically around 5-8x for high-growth SaaS), Varonis trades at a slight premium, reflecting its niche leadership and growth potential. The PEG ratio is -0.92, which is negative due to negative earnings growth, making it uninformative. Historically, Varonis has traded at higher PS multiples (often above 10x) during periods of faster growth, so the current 6.79x PS is below its historical average, suggesting the market is pricing in the transition risk. This lower multiple could represent a value opportunity if the cloud transition succeeds and margins expand, but it also reflects skepticism about near-term profitability.
PE
-29.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-44.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple

