Vistra Corp.

Of course. Here is a comprehensive analysis of whether VST is worth buying.

**Technical Analysis**

VST is in a pronounced downtrend, having significantly underperformed the broader market. The stock's high beta confirms it is much more volatile, amplifying recent losses. While currently trading in the lower-middle portion of its 52-week range and appearing oversold, it has yet to establish a clear technical reversal, indicating continued selling pressure.

**Fundamental Analysis**

Fundamentally, VST shows impressive momentum with strong revenue growth and surging profitability in the last quarter. However, this is tempered by a highly leveraged balance sheet and weak asset utilization, meaning returns are heavily dependent on debt rather than operational excellence. The company's financial health requires careful monitoring due to potential liquidity strains.

**Valuation & Risk Assessment**

Valuation presents a mixed picture. Traditional metrics like P/E and P/B are extremely high, suggesting a hefty premium. The critical factor is the very low PEG ratio, which implies the stock could be undervalued if its high earnings growth continues. The primary risk is extreme volatility, as evidenced by a near-50% drawdown, making it suitable only for risk-tolerant investors.

**Investment Recommendation**

Based on the analysis, a conditional buy recommendation is warranted for aggressive investors. The compelling growth story and potentially attractive PEG ratio offer upside potential, but this is a high-risk proposition. investors must be prepared for significant price swings and should closely watch the company's ability to manage its substantial debt load. This stock is not suitable for conservative portfolios.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for VST:

12-Month Outlook for VST

The primary catalyst for VST over the next year is the continuation of its impressive earnings momentum, where its low PEG ratio suggests significant upside potential if it can sustain its high growth trajectory. However, the outlook is heavily tempered by substantial risks, including its highly leveraged balance sheet, which poses a threat to liquidity, and its history of extreme volatility, having already experienced a near-50% drawdown. Given the high-risk profile and lack of a consensus analyst target, a realistic price range would be exceptionally wide and volatile, with potential for significant recovery toward its 52-week high if growth persists, but with equal risk of further declines if debt concerns or market pressures intensify. This stock is only suitable for aggressive, risk-tolerant investors who can closely monitor these factors.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Vistra Corp.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $166.60, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, VST has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

VST has experienced significant volatility with substantial declines over recent months, though it remains well above its 52-week low. The stock shows pronounced underperformance relative to the broader market, exacerbated by its high beta characteristic. Despite recent losses, the current price suggests some recovery from the year's deepest drawdown phases.

Over the past one and three months, VST has declined by -1.82% and -18.37% respectively, indicating sustained downward pressure. More critically, its relative strength versus the market is -21.74%, meaning it has significantly underperformed the benchmark over this period. This underperformance aligns with the stock's high beta of 1.418, suggesting it has been more volatile than the market during this downturn.

Currently trading at $171.42, VST is positioned at approximately 57% of its 52-week range ($90.51 to $219.82), indicating it is in the lower-middle portion of its annual trading band. Given the steep -48.89% maximum drawdown and recent persistent selling pressure, the stock appears to be in an oversold condition rather than overbought, though it has rebounded considerably from its low.

Of course. Here is a fundamental analysis of VST based on the provided data.

1. Revenue & Profitability

VST demonstrated strong top-line growth and significantly improved profitability in its most recent quarter (Q3 2025). Revenue increased by 17% from Q2 to Q3, while operating income more than doubled, indicating enhanced operational leverage. Profit margins expanded substantially, with the gross profit margin rising to 29.9% and the net profit margin reaching 13.1%, reflecting effective cost control and pricing power.

2. Financial Health

The company's financial health is a point of concern, characterized by high leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.36 indicates a heavily debt-funded capital structure. Furthermore, the current ratio below 1.0 suggests potential liquidity strain in meeting short-term obligations. While the interest coverage ratio of 3.64 is adequate, the high debt load necessitates careful management of cash flows and refinancing risks.

3. Operational Efficiency

Operational efficiency shows mixed signals. The return on equity (ROE) of 12.5% is respectable, driven by a very high equity multiplier (leverage). However, asset utilization is weak, with a low asset turnover ratio of 0.13, suggesting the company is not generating significant revenue relative to its asset base. This indicates that VST's returns are currently more dependent on financial leverage than on highly efficient operations.

Valuation Level Analysis

VST's current trailing PE of 48.36 and forward PE of 25.53 are exceptionally high by general market standards, indicating a significant valuation premium. The stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of 11.12 and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.38, both of which are elevated and suggest investors are paying a substantial price for its assets and revenue. However, the notably low PEG ratio of 0.22, based on forward earnings, signals that its high earnings growth rate may justify these multiples if sustained, potentially pointing to an undervalued growth opportunity despite the lofty absolute valuations.

Peer Comparison Analysis

A direct peer comparison is hampered by the absence of available industry average data. Based on the elevated multiples such as the PE of 48.36 and EV/EBITDA of 44.71, VST appears to be valued at a substantial premium compared to typical market valuations. Without specific industry benchmarks, it is challenging to definitively conclude whether this premium is warranted relative to its direct competitors, highlighting a significant dependency on the company's ability to meet its high growth expectations.

Of course. Here is a risk analysis for VST based on the provided metrics.

1. Volatility Risk: VST exhibits high volatility risk, significantly exceeding that of the broader market. With a Beta of 1.418, the stock is theoretically about 42% more volatile than the market index, meaning it tends to experience larger price swings both upward and downward. This elevated volatility is confirmed by the substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -48.89%, indicating that the stock has suffered a severe peak-to-trough decline, which represents a high level of risk for investors sensitive to significant capital erosion.

2. Other Risks: The absence of reported short interest suggests that professional investors do not currently hold a strong, active negative outlook on the stock, which can be viewed as a positive signal. However, this does not preclude other fundamental risks. Investors should still scrutinize factors such as company-specific operational performance, industry headwinds, and overall market liquidity, as the high volatility implies the stock may be susceptible to sharp movements on news or earnings reports.