Vanguard Value ETF
VTVVTV is an ETF that tracks the performance of large-cap U.
S. stocks considered to be value stocks. It provides investors with a diversified, low-cost vehicle to gain exposure to companies trading at relatively low prices compared to their fundamentals.
Updated: February 19, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VTV Today?
Based on the available analysis, VTV presents a compelling case for defensive investors seeking stability and steady growth. The fund has demonstrated impressive outperformance against the broader market while maintaining lower volatility, a combination that highlights the strength of its value-oriented strategy. Technically, it is trading near its highs, which suggests strong momentum but also warrants caution regarding a potential near-term pullback.
Its moderate premium valuation, as indicated by the P/E ratio, is justified by its quality holdings and defensive characteristics, though it may limit explosive upside. The primary appeal lies in its risk profile, characterized by a below-market beta and a manageable historical drawdown, making it a robust anchor for a diversified portfolio.
Recommendation: BUY. VTV is a solid choice for investors prioritizing capital preservation and steady returns, particularly in uncertain market climates. Its consistent outperformance and defensive traits outweigh concerns about its current valuation level. It is best suited as a core, long-term holding for building a resilient equity allocation, not for short-term speculation. Remember, this is not investment advice, and individual circumstances should be considered.
VTV 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on a comprehensive analysis, the 12-month outlook for VTV is positive, supported by its defensive characteristics.
Key Catalysts: The primary catalysts for VTV are its focus on high-quality, value-oriented stocks, which tend to be more resilient during periods of market uncertainty or economic slowdown. This defensive quality is its main appeal, potentially attracting capital if volatility in growth stocks persists.
Potential Risks: The main risk is a significant rally in growth stocks, which could cause VTV to underperform the broader market. Additionally, trading near all-time highs increases vulnerability to a broader market pullback, though its lower beta should cushion the decline relative to other equity funds.
Target Price Range: While a specific analyst target is unavailable, a reasonable 12-month price range would be $215 - $230, based on the fund's steady growth trajectory and income generation, assuming a stable-to-slightly volatile market environment.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Vanguard Value ETF's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $206.12, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: VTV Investment Factors
Overall, VTV has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong Value Investing Focus: Provides exposure to undervalued large-cap US companies with solid fundamentals.
- Exceptional Low Expense Ratio: Ultra-low 0.04% fee structure maximizes investor returns over time.
- Proven Long-Term Performance: Historical growth turned $10,000 into over $35,000 demonstrating strong returns.
- Reliable Workhorse Reputation: Consistently recommended as a core holding for long-term investors.
- Market Uncertainty Hedge: Considered a smart investment regardless of market direction and volatility.
Bearish
- Limited Growth Potential: Conservative strategy may lag behind more aggressive value ETFs like VFVA.
- Value Style Cyclicality: Performance depends on value stocks being in favor with investors.
- Potential Confusion Risk: Name similarity with vTv Therapeutics (VTVT) may cause investor confusion.
- Conservative Approach: May underperform during strong growth stock market periods.
VTV Technical Analysis
VTV has demonstrated strong outperformance with significant gains over multiple timeframes while maintaining relative stability.
Over the past month and three months, VTV has delivered impressive returns of 5.31% and 9.91% respectively, notably outperforming the broader market by 8.06% over the three-month period despite its below-average beta of 0.8 indicating lower volatility characteristics. This substantial relative outperformance suggests the fund has captured significant upside while exhibiting defensive traits.
Currently trading near its 52-week high of $208.20, VTV sits just 1% below its peak after recovering strongly from a maximum drawdown of -13.86% over the past year. While technically near overbought territory given its proximity to all-time highs, the fund's disciplined risk management is evidenced by its modest maximum drawdown relative to its substantial gains.
| Period | VTV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.3% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +9.9% | +1.9% |
| 6m | +14.9% | +6.5% |
| 1y | +15.5% | +12.1% |
| ytd | +6.9% | +0.2% |
VTV Fundamental Analysis
Based on the information provided, no meaningful fundamental analysis can be conducted for VTV. The absence of both recent quarterly financial data and key financial ratios makes it impossible to assess the company's performance, health, or efficiency. Without access to basic financial statements and metrics, any analysis would be speculative rather than evidence-based.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Based on the provided metrics, VTV appears to be trading at a premium valuation. A trailing P/E ratio of 21.76 is moderately high for what is typically perceived as a value-oriented fund, suggesting that investors are paying a significant price for its current earnings. While this may reflect the quality of its holdings, it indicates the stock is not cheap on an absolute basis and could be considered fully valued or slightly overvalued without supportive growth metrics like a PEG ratio.
Unfortunately, a peer comparison of VTV's valuation cannot be conducted due to the unavailability of industry average data. Without benchmarks for P/E or P/B ratios specific to its investment style or sector composition, it is impossible to determine whether its valuation is attractive or expensive relative to the market or similar funds. A conclusive assessment would require this contextual industry data for a meaningful comparison.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: VTV exhibits below-market volatility with a beta of 0.8, indicating it is expected to be 20% less volatile than the broader market. The 1-year maximum drawdown of -13.86% is moderate for an equity fund, reflecting the defensive nature of its value-oriented portfolio. Overall, its historical price fluctuations suggest relatively low volatility risk.
Other Risks: The absence of significant short interest indicates the market consensus is not betting against the fund. However, investors should consider the inherent risks of its focus on large-cap value stocks, including potential underperformance during growth-led market rallies, despite the overall high liquidity typical of such a large ETF.
FAQs
Bullish. VTV demonstrates strong outperformance with lower volatility and offers a disciplined, low-cost vehicle for gaining exposure to established value stocks. It is best suited for long-term, risk-averse investors seeking a core holding for stable returns, despite its current premium valuation and potential to lag during strong growth market cycles.
Based on the available data, VTV appears to be fully valued to slightly overvalued. A key valuation metric is its trailing P/E ratio of 21.76, which is moderately high for a fund explicitly targeting value stocks and suggests investors are paying a premium for current earnings. However, a conclusive judgment is difficult due to the lack of critical context; without industry average data for a relative comparison or a Forward P/E / PEG ratio to gauge growth expectations, the assessment remains limited. The elevated P/B ratio of 2.72 further supports the view that it is not trading at a deep value discount.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding VTV:
1. Market Timing Risk: The fund's strategy of focusing on value stocks carries the risk of prolonged underperformance compared to the broader market during periods when growth-oriented stocks are in favor. 2. Valuation Risk: Trading near its 52-week high suggests the fund may be susceptible to a price correction or consolidation if the momentum behind its recent outperformance subsides. 3. Concentration Risk: Despite being a large ETF, VTV is exposed to the specific risks of the large-cap value segment, lacking the diversification benefits of a multi-style or multi-cap portfolio.
Based on the defensive nature of the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and its current trajectory, the forecast through 2026 is for steady, moderate growth. The target price range is $240 - $265 for the base case, with a bull case of $280+ if economic uncertainty drives a sustained flight to quality. Key growth drivers are its high dividend yield providing consistent income and the resilience of its large-cap value holdings during potential economic slowdowns. The main assumptions are that market volatility persists and interest rates do not rise sharply, which would hurt value stocks. This forecast is inherently uncertain, as a strong rally in growth stocks or a swift resolution to macroeconomic concerns could cause VTV to significantly underperform its targets.