VTV
VTVVanguard Value ETF (VTV) is an exchange-traded fund that invests in large-cap U.
S. stocks identified as value-oriented. It provides diversified exposure to companies across various sectors that are deemed to be trading for less than their intrinsic worth. The fund's core characteristic is its passive strategy, tracking the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index to offer investors a low-cost, efficient way to access the value segment of the market.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VTV Today?
Of course. Here is a comprehensive analysis of whether VTV is worth buying, based on the information provided.
Technical Analysis VTV exhibits strong momentum, recently trading near its all-time high and outperforming the broader market over the last three months. Its low beta confirms this performance has been achieved with less volatility than the market, though its current position suggests it may be technically overbought in the short term. The shallow maximum drawdown highlights its defensive, steady nature, which is characteristic of a value-oriented ETF.
Fundamental & Valuation Analysis A fundamental analysis of the underlying holdings is not possible due to a lack of reported financial data. From a valuation perspective, VTV's P/E ratio of 21.59 appears moderately valued, while its P/B ratio of 2.59 indicates investors are paying a premium over book value. Without comparative industry data, it's challenging to label the ETF as cheap or expensive, but the metrics do not signal extreme overvaluation.
Risk Assessment The primary strength of VTV is its lower risk profile, evidenced by a beta of 0.78, which means it should be less volatile than the overall market. However, its experienced drawdown of over 14% reminds investors that even conservative value stocks can face significant downturns. The main risks are macroeconomic, such as rising interest rates, which could pressure its value-oriented holdings.
**Buy Recommendation**
Based on this analysis, VTV is a compelling buy for investors seeking stable, lower-volatility exposure to large-cap value stocks. Its technical strength and defensive characteristics make it an excellent core holding for a diversified portfolio, particularly for those with a conservative risk tolerance. While not deeply undervalued, its reasonable valuation and steady performance justify a long-term position for capital preservation and steady growth. This is suitable for investors prioritizing income and stability over aggressive capital appreciation.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
VTV 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on a comprehensive analysis of VTV, here is the 12-month outlook:
12-Month Outlook for VTV
Over the next 12 months, the primary catalysts for VTV will be its defensive characteristics, which should attract capital during periods of market uncertainty or economic slowdown; its focus on large, stable, value-oriented companies provides a foundation for steady performance and reliable dividend income. The key potential risks are predominantly macroeconomic, specifically the persistence of elevated interest rates, which can pressure the valuation of value stocks and dampen the appeal of dividend payers relative to fixed-income alternatives. While a specific analyst target price is unavailable, the ETF's current valuation metrics do not signal overvaluation, suggesting a target price range that aligns with modest, single-digit percentage growth from the current level, consistent with its low-volatility profile, contingent on a stable-to-declining interest rate environment.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about VTV's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $197.68, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: VTV Investment Factors
Overall, VTV has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong historical performance: Annual growth between 12% and 15% over recent years.
- Focus on established companies: Provides exposure to large, stable firms at attractive valuations.
- Low-cost and well-constructed: Low expense ratio and strong liquidity benefit investors.
- Broad sector diversification: Exposure across various sectors, particularly outside Technology.
- Reliable workhorse for investors: Considered a core, dependable holding suitable for many portfolios.
Bearish
- Limited growth potential versus alternatives: May underperform compared to broader market or momentum funds.
- Exclusion of high-growth tech stocks: Misses out on potential gains from the technology sector.
- Not considered a standout 'value': Some analysts argue it is not a particularly good value.
- Competition from other value ETFs: Funds like VOE or VFVA may offer higher potential returns.
- Niche strategy limits upside: Focus purely on value may lag in certain market cycles.
VTV Technical Analysis
Of course. Here is the technical analysis of VTV's price performance.
Overall Assessment VTV has demonstrated steady outperformance with a relatively low-risk profile, recently reaching near its all-time high.
Short-term Performance The ETF has shown positive momentum over both one and three months, with a notable 5.67% gain in the latter period. Critically, its 3-month performance has exceeded the broader market by 2.3%, indicating strong relative strength. This trend is supported by its low beta of 0.78, suggesting these gains have been achieved with less volatility than the overall market.
Current Position VTV's current price is near the very top of its 52-week range, sitting just 0.5% below its high of $197.50. While this proximity to the peak suggests a strong bullish trend, it also places the ETF in a technically overbought condition based on its price range. The shallow maximum drawdown of -14.25% over the past year confirms the defensive nature of this fund, but caution is warranted given the limited upside room before a significant resistance level.
| Period | VTV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.7% | +1.3% |
| 3m | +8.1% | +5.7% |
| 6m | +10.9% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +14.6% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +2.5% | +1.1% |
VTV Fundamental Analysis
Based on the information provided, a fundamental analysis cannot be performed.
The recent quarterly report shows "No data available," which prevents any assessment of revenue growth, profitability, or cash flow trends. Without financial statements, an analysis of revenue, profit margins, and cash flow situation is not possible.
Similarly, with financial ratios listed as "No data available," key metrics for evaluating financial health (such as debt ratios) and operational efficiency (like ROE and asset turnover) cannot be calculated or discussed. A proper fundamental analysis requires access to the company's financial data.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level
VTV's current PE ratio of 21.59 suggests a moderately valued stock relative to the broader market, while its PB ratio of 2.59 indicates investors are paying a premium over the company's book value. Without forward-looking metrics like PEG or Forward PE, the assessment is based solely on trailing earnings, which appear reasonable but not deeply discounted. The lack of a PS ratio or EV/EBITDA limits a fuller picture, but the available metrics do not signal significant overvaluation or undervaluation.
Peer Comparison
A comparative analysis cannot be conducted as the necessary industry average data was not provided. To determine if VTV's valuation multiples are attractive, benchmarking its PE of 21.59 and PB of 2.59 against the industry's averages is essential. In the absence of this contextual data, no relative valuation conclusion can be drawn.
Investment Risk Disclosure
VTV's 0.78 Beta indicates lower volatility risk than the broader market, meaning it is expected to be less sensitive to market swings. However, the fund still experienced a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -14.25%, demonstrating that even conservative value stocks are susceptible to substantial downturns during market stress. This lower beta offers some defensive characteristics but does not eliminate the risk of capital loss in adverse conditions.
The fund's lack of significant short interest suggests a general market consensus regarding its fair valuation and reduces the risk of a short squeeze. Its status as a highly liquid, large-cap ETF minimizes liquidity risk for investors. The primary risks are concentrated in the macroeconomic sensitivity of its value-oriented holdings, which may underperform if growth stocks lead the market or if interest rates rise.
FAQs
Of course. Here is the professional assessment for VTV.
Opinion: Bullish for income-focused and risk-averse investors.
Core Reasons: 1. Defensive Outperformance: VTV has demonstrated steady gains with lower volatility (Beta of 0.78), recently outperforming the broader market. 2. Reasonable Valuation: A P/E of 21.59 suggests moderate valuation, avoiding the excesses seen in high-growth segments of the market. 3. Proven Strategy: The ETF provides reliable exposure to large, stable value companies, making it a core defensive holding with a strong historical track record.
Suitable Investor Types: Long-term investors, retirees seeking income, and value-oriented investors looking for a low-volatility anchor in their portfolio. It is less suitable for those seeking aggressive growth or significant exposure to the technology sector.
Based on the limited data provided, VTV appears fairly valued.
Judgment: Fairly valued.
Key Valuation Metrics: * PE Ratio: 21.59 * PB Ratio: 2.59
Comparison & Reasons: A PE of 21.59 is not significantly high for a mature, stable company, suggesting the market price reasonably reflects current earnings. The PB ratio of 2.59 indicates investors are paying a premium over book value, which is common for companies with strong intangible assets or brands. Without industry averages or forward-looking growth metrics (like PEG), there is insufficient evidence to conclude the stock is meaningfully overvalued or undervalued. The valuation appears to be in a reasonable equilibrium based on the available trailing metrics.
Of course. Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding VTV, ordered by importance.
1. Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Sensitivity: The fund's value-oriented holdings are particularly susceptible to underperformance during periods of rising interest rates or when growth stocks lead the market, as higher rates can diminish the present value of their future cash flows. 2. Market Cycle Risk: Despite its lower volatility (Beta of 0.78), the fund experienced a significant maximum drawdown of -14.25%, demonstrating that even defensive value stocks are not immune to substantial capital loss during broad market downturns. 3. Technical Overbought Risk: The fund's price is currently near the top of its 52-week range, indicating a technically overbought condition that suggests limited short-term upside potential and increased vulnerability to a price correction or consolidation. 4. Concentration Risk: As a value-style ETF, the fund carries the inherent risk of sector or factor concentration, meaning it may lag the broader market if investor sentiment shifts away from value investing strategies.
Of course. As a professional investment strategist focusing on ETFs, here is a forecast for Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) through 2026.
Based on a strategic, long-term horizon, VTV is forecasted to deliver steady, moderate growth driven by its focus on large-cap value stocks. The outlook is heavily contingent on the trajectory of interest rates and broader economic conditions.
1. Target Price Range for 2026: * Base Case (Most Likely): $225 - $245 * Bull Case (Optimistic Scenario): $260 - $280
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Economic Cycle Positioning: Value stocks, particularly in sectors like Financials, Health Care, and Energy, tend to outperform during periods of economic normalization or mild contraction, which could be the case in the latter half of the forecast period. * Attractive Relative Valuation: VTV's holdings are generally priced below the broader market, offering a margin of safety and potential for multiple expansion if investor sentiment shifts from growth to value. * Reliable Dividend Income: The ETF's substantial and growing dividend yield provides a consistent return component, which compounds over time and cushions against market downturns.
3. Main Assumptions: * Interest rates peak in 2024 and begin a gradual decline into 2025-2026, reducing pressure on value stock valuations. * The U.S. economy avoids a deep recession, experiencing instead a period of slowed growth or a mild downturn. * Corporate earnings for the large, stable companies within VTV remain resilient.
4. Uncertainty of the Forecast: This forecast is highly sensitive to macroeconomic policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve. A scenario where inflation proves persistent and forces rates to remain higher for longer would likely compress the fund's valuation multiples, posing a significant downside risk to these targets. The forecast is directional rather than precise.