Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
WSM
$260.80
+2.95%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is a multi-brand home furnishings and kitchenware retailer operating primarily in the U.S. Consumer Cyclical / Specialty Retail space, selling through e-commerce, catalog, and a network of roughly 500-plus stores across banners including Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids/Teen, West Elm, Rejuvenation, Mark & Graham, and GreenRow, while also expanding into B2B, marketplace, and franchise channels. The company is best characterized as a premium, design-led, digitally native home lifestyle platform rather than a pure brick-and-mortar retailer, with a vertically integrated sourcing model and a large direct-to-consumer base that gives it outsized gross margins relative to mass-market peers. The current investor narrative centers on whether WSM can sustain its post-pandemic margin reset — gross margins have climbed to roughly 51.6% in the latest quarter versus 47.1% a year earlier — while navigating a soft housing and home-furnishings demand backdrop, with mortgage-rate volatility tied to geopolitical oil shocks cited as a headwind for the broader home category. Recent coverage has framed the stock as a resilience story, including a March 2026 dividend increase, and the debate now hinges on whether earnings momentum and B2B/marketplace expansion can justify a valuation that has re-rated sharply higher over the past year.…
WSM
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
$260.80
Related headlines
WSM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $248.45 and implied upside of -4.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$248.45
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-4.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$151 - $286
Analyst target range
WSM is covered by 20 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 2.22 (where lower is more bullish), indicating a moderately constructive but not unanimous stance. The average target price is $246.35, which implies roughly -1.5% downside from the current $250.16 — the stock has already run past the consensus target, a classic signal that either analysts are behind the curve or the market is ahead of fundamentals. The consensus leans bullish in rating but neutral-to-cautious in price terms, with the recent institutional ratings showing a split: BofA (Buy), Argus (Buy), KeyBanc (Overweight), and RBC (Outperform) on the bullish side, versus Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, Citigroup, UBS, and Evercore all at Neutral/In Line — a pattern of stable ratings with no recent upgrades or downgrades, suggesting analysts are waiting for confirmation rather than adding conviction. The target range is wide, from a low of $151.00 to a high of $280.00, a spread of $129 or roughly 52% of the current price, which signals meaningful disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $280 (about +12% upside) likely assumes continued gross-margin expansion above 50%, successful B2B and marketplace scaling, and multiple expansion toward 25x forward EPS of $11.58; the low target of $151 (about -40% downside) likely prices in margin compression from a housing-led demand slowdown, freight or tariff cost pressure, and a de-rating back toward the mid-teens PE the stock commanded as recently as 2024. The wide dispersion, combined with the stock trading above the average target, argues for caution on new positions at current levels despite the strong technical and fundamental momentum.
Bulls vs Bears: WSM Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidentiary support: margins expanded roughly 457 basis points year-over-year in Q2 2026, EPS grew 43.5%, free cash flow is $1.35 billion, and relative strength versus SPY is positive across every window (+21.24 points YTD). The bear case rests less on fundamentals than on price: the stock trades above the $246.35 consensus target, at 23.89x earnings near the top of a historical 6x-24.7x range, with a 42.57 PEG ratio and only 6.7% revenue growth. The single most important tension is whether the 51.6% gross margin is a durable structural reset or a cyclical peak — if margins hold above 50%, the multiple is defensible and the $280 high target is reachable; if they revert toward the 44-47% range of 2024-2025, EPS of $11.58 is at risk and the stock could de-rate toward the mid-teens multiple it commanded as recently as 2024, a scenario the $151 low target quantifies.
Bullish
- Margin reset is structural, not cyclical: Q2 2026 gross margin hit 51.64% versus 47.07% a year earlier, and operating margin expanded to 22.90% from 17.86%. Even the seasonally weaker Q1 2026 posted a 43.95% gross margin, above the 44-47% band typical through 2024-2025, suggesting pricing discipline and freight relief have permanently lifted the earnings base.
- Earnings growth far outpaces revenue: Q2 2026 EPS of $2.87 rose 43.5% from $2.00 while revenue grew only 6.7% to $1.96 billion, and net income jumped to $338.1 million (17.25% margin) from $247.6 million (13.48%). This operating leverage means modest top-line gains translate into disproportionate profit growth.
- Elite returns on capital and cash generation: ROE of 52.26% and ROA of 16.64% reflect a capital-light model, while TTM free cash flow of $1.35 billion against just $58.7 million of quarterly capex yields a ~5.2% FCF yield on the $25.99 billion market cap. The $1.03 billion cash balance and 0.70 debt-to-equity leave ample room for the 29.1% payout ratio and continued buybacks ($381.4 million in Q1).
- Decisive market leadership versus SPY: WSM is up 33.42% over one year and 33.17% YTD versus SPY's 15.53% and 11.93%, producing relative strength of +17.89 and +21.24 points respectively. The stock sits just 2.1% below its $255.33 52-week high at 92.6% of its range, with a fresh 14.65% one-month gain confirming institutional accumulation.
Bearish
- Stock has overshot analyst consensus target: At $250.16, WSM trades above the $246.35 average target of 20 analysts, implying -1.5% downside, and the recommendation mean of 2.22 is only moderately constructive. Five houses (Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, Citigroup, UBS, Evercore) sit at Neutral with no recent upgrades, suggesting the Street sees limited further upside.
- Valuation at the top of its own history: The 23.89x trailing PE sits near the high end of a historical band that ran from 6.0x (January 2023) to 24.7x (August 2025); the stock traded at 9.1x in early 2024. The market has re-rated shares more than 2x on essentially the same earnings base, and the 42.57 PEG ratio flags a multiple wildly out of line with growth.
- Growth is too slow to justify the multiple: Revenue grew just 6.7% year-over-year to $1.96 billion, and consensus 2027 EPS of $11.58 versus trailing EPS implies only modest forward growth, producing a near-identical 23.79x forward PE to the 23.89x trailing figure. A mature retailer at a growth multiple has little cushion if the 6.7% pace slips.
- Housing-linked demand and rate sensitivity: WSM's home-furnishings demand is tied to housing turnover, and mortgage rates hit a four-week high in May 2026 on Iran-related oil shocks, with Powell warning that oil-driven inflation complicates rate cuts. With a beta of 1.469, a market-wide 10% correction could plausibly translate into a ~15% move in WSM.
WSM Technical Analysis
WSM is in a sustained, well-defined uptrend: the stock is up 33.42% over the past year and 33.17% year-to-date, and at $250.16 it sits at roughly 92.6% of its 52-week range of $165.51–$255.33, just 2.1% below the 52-week high. That positioning signals strong momentum and persistent institutional accumulation rather than a value opportunity, though it also means the stock is extended and vulnerable to profit-taking near the top of the range. The 52-week low of $165.51 was set during the spring drawdown, and the recovery from that level has been nearly uninterrupted, with a maximum drawdown of only -23.58% over the period. Short-term momentum is accelerating and confirming the longer-term trend: the stock is up 14.65% over the past month and 9.52% over three months, with the 1-month gain far outpacing the 3-month gain, indicating a fresh leg higher rather than a fading move. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 is decisively positive across every window — +13.43 points over 1 month, +6.83 over 3 months, +17.89 over 1 year, and +21.24 YTD — against SPY gains of just 1.22%, 2.69%, 15.53%, and 11.93% respectively, confirming WSM as a market leader. The most recent session saw a modest -0.74% pullback from $252.03 to $250.16 on volume of about 1.81 million shares, a benign consolidation rather than distribution. Key resistance sits at the 52-week high of $255.33; a clean breakout above that level would confirm the uptrend and likely trigger momentum-driven buying, while support is anchored at the 52-week low of $165.51, with intermediate support likely in the $220–$230 zone where the stock consolidated in July and September. With a beta of 1.469, WSM is roughly 47% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns — a market-wide 10% correction could plausibly translate into a 15% move in WSM, and the short ratio of 4.61 days indicates moderate short interest that could add fuel to a breakout but also signals some skepticism at current levels.
Beta
1.47
1.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$166-$261
Price range past year
Annual Return
+38.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WSM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.1% | -1.2% |
| 3m | +15.0% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +36.9% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +38.7% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +38.8% | +12.0% |
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WSM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at a solid mid-single-digit pace: the latest quarter (ended 2026-08-02) delivered $1.96 billion in revenue, up 6.7% year-over-year from $1.84 billion, and the trailing four quarters total roughly $7.91 billion ($1.96B + $1.81B + $2.36B + $1.88B). The multi-quarter trend shows sequential acceleration into the seasonally strong fiscal Q4 ($2.36 billion) followed by a normal seasonal step-down, but the year-over-year comparison is clearly positive — Q2 2026 revenue of $1.96 billion versus $1.84 billion in Q2 2025 and $1.80 billion in Q1 2026. By brand, Pottery Barn remains the largest segment at $770.8 million, followed by West Elm at $496.3 million, Pottery Barn Kids & Teen at $297.4 million, Williams-Sonoma at $268.8 million, and other segments at $126.4 million, indicating a diversified portfolio where no single banner dominates excessively. The growth trajectory supports the investment case for a premium home retailer that is taking share and expanding into B2B and marketplace channels, though the 6.7% growth rate is moderate and leaves little room for execution error in a soft housing market. Profitability is robust and expanding: Q2 2026 net income was $338.1 million on a 17.25% net margin, up from $247.6 million and a 13.48% margin in Q2 2025, while gross margin rose to 51.64% from 47.07% and operating margin expanded to 22.90% from 17.86%. The company is comfortably profitable with a trailing net margin of 13.94%, operating margin of 18.13%, and gross margin of 46.15% on a TTM basis, and the quarterly progression — gross margin of 43.95% in Q1 2026, 51.64% in Q2 2026, and 46.87% in Q4 2025 — shows a structurally higher margin base than the 44–47% range seen through much of 2024–2025. This margin expansion, driven by pricing discipline, lower freight costs, and a favorable mix toward higher-margin brands, is the core of the earnings story and explains why EPS of $2.87 in Q2 2026 dwarfed $2.00 a year earlier. Balance sheet and cash generation are strong: free cash flow TTM is $1.35 billion, Q2 2026 operating cash flow was $539.5 million against capex of just $58.7 million, and the company ended the quarter with $1.03 billion in cash. Debt-to-equity is a manageable 0.70, the current ratio is 1.39, and ROE is an exceptional 52.26% with ROA of 16.64%, reflecting a capital-light, high-return model that funds growth internally while returning cash through dividends ($89.9 million paid in Q2 2026) and buybacks ($5.5 million in Q2, $381.4 million in Q1). The FCF yield of roughly 5.2% ($1.35 billion / $25.99 billion market cap) and a payout ratio of 29.1% indicate ample coverage of the 1.22% dividend yield, leaving room for continued repurchases and dividend growth without balance-sheet strain.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2026-08
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
51.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WSM Overvalued?
Because WSM is solidly profitable — trailing net income is positive and TTM EPS is meaningful — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the stock trades at 23.89x trailing earnings versus 23.79x forward earnings. The near-identical trailing and forward multiples imply the market is not pricing in aggressive near-term EPS growth; consensus 2027 EPS of $11.58 against a $250.16 price yields the 23.79x forward figure, suggesting earnings are expected to grow only modestly from current levels, which is a caution given the stock's 33% one-year run. The PEG ratio of 42.57 is extraordinarily high and signals that the current multiple is far out of line with the company's growth rate, a classic warning sign for a mature retailer trading at a growth-stock multiple. Relative to the Specialty Retail sector, WSM's 23.9x trailing PE and 3.33x PS represent a clear premium — specialty retail averages are typically in the mid-to-high teens on PE and well below 1.5x on sales — implying a premium of roughly 40–60% on earnings and more than 100% on sales. That premium is partly justified by WSM's superior gross margin (46.2% TTM versus roughly 30–35% for typical hardline retailers), its 52.3% ROE, and its asset-light, high-FCF business model, but the 12.48x price-to-book and 15.69x EV/EBITDA leave little margin of safety if growth decelerates. Historically, WSM's PE has ranged from about 6.0x (January 2023) to 24.7x (August 2025), and the current 23.9x sits near the very top of that band — in early 2024 the stock traded at 9.1x and in mid-2023 at 11.0x, so the market has re-rated the shares by more than 2x on the same earnings base. The PS ratio of 3.33x compares with historical levels of 3.5x–5.7x in 2022–2023 and 10–14x in the more recent quarterly snapshots (which reflect different share-count conventions), but the directional message is consistent: valuation is at the high end of its own history, pricing in optimistic margin durability and growth that the 6.7% revenue growth rate does not yet fully support.
PE
23.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 6x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
15.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin durability and growth dependence. Gross margin of 51.64% in Q2 2026 is up 457 basis points year-over-year, but the quarterly sequence (43.95% in Q1 2026, 46.87% in Q4 2025) shows meaningful seasonality, and the TTM gross margin of 46.15% is well below the latest quarter — meaning the headline number flatters the run-rate. Revenue growth of just 6.7% leaves little buffer: consensus 2027 EPS of $11.58 implies only modest growth from current levels, so any margin give-back from freight, tariffs, or promotional pressure would hit earnings disproportionately given the 22.90% operating margin. The company is not financially stretched — debt-to-equity of 0.70, current ratio of 1.39, $1.03 billion cash, and $1.35 billion TTM free cash flow — so the risk is earnings quality, not solvency, with the 29.1% payout ratio and $89.9 million quarterly dividend comfortably covered.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression. At 23.89x trailing and 23.79x forward earnings, 3.33x sales, 12.48x book, and 15.69x EV/EBITDA, WSM trades at roughly a 40-60% premium to specialty retail on earnings and more than double on sales, with a PEG of 42.57. That premium depends on the market continuing to believe in margin durability; a shift in sentiment toward the mid-teens multiples the stock carried in 2024 would be punishing. The beta of 1.469 means WSM is roughly 47% more volatile than the market, and the home category remains hostage to mortgage rates — May 2026 coverage noted rates hitting a four-week high on Iran-related oil shocks, with the Fed warning that oil-driven inflation complicates rate cuts. Competition from mass-market and online home players, plus the risk that B2B and marketplace expansion fails to scale, adds execution risk to the growth narrative.
In a worst-case scenario, a housing-led demand slowdown combines with gross margin reverting toward the 44-47% range, compressing EPS below the $11.58 consensus and triggering a de-rating toward the mid-teens multiple. That path would take the stock toward the $151 analyst low target, roughly -40% from $250.16, and a full retest of the $165.51 52-week low would represent about -34%. The historical maximum drawdown of -23.58% over the past year understates the tail risk because it occurred during an uptrend; a genuine margin-cycle reversal could exceed it. Given beta of 1.469, a broad market correction of 10% would plausibly produce a 15% decline in WSM even without company-specific bad news, so a realistic adverse-case range is -25% to -40%.

