Wynn Resorts, Limited

Based on a comprehensive analysis of WYNN Resorts, the stock presents a mixed picture with moderate appeal for investors with a higher risk tolerance.

From a technical perspective, WYNN sits in a cautiously optimistic zone, having recovered significantly from its lows but facing recent underperformance against the market. Its fundamentals show a company with solid revenue growth and reasonable operational control, though profitability is mixed with noticeable gross margin compression. The valuation is a key concern; while the current P/E is moderate, the high forward P/E and a PEG ratio above 1.0 suggest the stock may be pricing in very optimistic future growth. The company's ability to service its debt is adequate but tight, and the stock's history of significant drawdowns highlights its volatility.

Recommendation: HOLD. For existing investors, WYNN's operational strengths and market position may warrant maintaining a position. However, for new buyers, the current valuation appears to lean slightly expensive relative to its near-term growth prospects, and the recent underperformance coupled with cost pressures suggests it may be prudent to wait for a more attractive entry point or clearer signs of sustained margin improvement. This is not investment advice, for reference only.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for WYNN Resorts:

12-Month Outlook for WYNN

The outlook for WYNN is moderately positive but hinges on its ability to translate solid revenue growth, particularly from its Macau operations, into improved profitability. Key catalysts include a sustained recovery in high-margin premium gaming in Macau and the continued strong performance of its Las Vegas properties. However, significant risks persist, primarily from macroeconomic sensitivity that could dampen consumer spending, ongoing pressure on gross margins, and the stock's premium valuation which appears to have priced in robust growth. Given the lack of a specific analyst target, the high volatility typical of casino stocks suggests a wide potential trading range, with performance heavily dependent on quarterly earnings demonstrating concrete margin expansion.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Wynn Resorts, Limited's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $115.35, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, WYNN has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

WYNN has demonstrated volatile but generally strong performance over the past year, currently trading significantly above its 52-week low despite recent weakness.

The stock has posted a modest 1-month gain of 3.66%, but faces headwinds with a 3-month decline of 6.23%, notably underperforming the broader market by 8.08% over that period. This short-term underperformance highlights recent sector-specific challenges despite its high-beta profile.

Currently priced at $115.35, WYNN sits approximately 77% above its 52-week low and 14% below its high, positioning it in the upper-middle range of its yearly trading band. Given its proximity to recent highs and substantial recovery from lows, the stock appears to be in a cautiously optimistic zone rather than indicating extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Revenue & Profitability WYNN demonstrated modest revenue growth from Q3 to Q4 2025, with quarterly revenue increasing from $1.83 billion to $1.87 billion. However, profitability metrics showed mixed trends, as the gross profit margin declined significantly from 41.2% to 32.0% quarter-over-quarter, though the net income margin improved to 5.4% in Q4 from 4.8% in Q3. This suggests cost pressures in the core business were partially offset by better expense management or tax effects.

Financial Health The company's interest coverage ratio of 1.86 indicates adequate but tight capacity to service its debt obligations from operating earnings. With several key debt and cash flow metrics unavailable in the provided data, a complete assessment of financial health is limited, though the modest interest coverage warrants monitoring of leverage and liquidity positions.

Operational Efficiency Operational performance shows solid profitability with an operating margin of 15.5% in Q4, though this declined from 16.9% in the previous quarter. The absence of asset turnover and ROE data prevents a full efficiency analysis, but the maintained double-digit operating margin indicates reasonable operational control despite the quarter's gross margin compression.

Valuation Level: WYNN's current PE ratio of 19.85 suggests a moderately valued stock relative to the broader market. However, the forward PE of approximately 31.0 is significantly higher, indicating elevated earnings expectations. The PEG ratio of 2.42 exceeds 1.0, which generally implies the stock may be overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth rate.

Peer Comparison: Peer analysis is limited as specific industry average data is unavailable. The absence of relevant comparative metrics like PB and EV/EBITDA ratios prevents a comprehensive benchmark assessment against competitors. This lack of industry context makes it difficult to determine WYNN's relative valuation positioning within its sector.

Volatility Risk: WYNN exhibits market-average volatility risk with a beta essentially identical to the market at 1.014. However, the stock has demonstrated significant downside risk, as evidenced by its substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -29.28%, indicating potential for sharp capital depreciation during market downturns. This combination suggests that while daily price swings may mirror the broader market, holders are exposed to considerable loss severity.

Other Risks: The absence of notable short interest suggests that bearish sentiment is not currently a primary concern. However, this lack of a negative catalyst does not eliminate other potential risks, such as company-specific operational challenges or broader macroeconomic pressures affecting the luxury resort and gaming sector. Investors should remain attentive to industry-specific headwinds and operational performance.