WYNN

Based on a comprehensive analysis of Wynn Resorts (WYNN), the investment case presents significant challenges that currently outweigh the potential rewards.

The stock is technically neutral but demonstrates high volatility, as evidenced by its substantial drawdowns. Fundamentally, while revenue growth and operational efficiency are strengths, they are critically undermined by an alarming debt load, negative equity, and pressured profitability. The valuation metrics, particularly the extremely high EV/EBITDA and negative book value, strongly suggest the stock is overvalued relative to its shaky financial foundation.

Recommendation: HOLD / NEUTRAL

WYNN is not a compelling buy at this time. The company's severe financial leverage and questionable valuation create substantial downside risk that overshadows its operational strengths in the recovering resort sector. Investors should wait for clear signs of improved balance sheet health and a more reasonable valuation before considering a position. Prudence suggests monitoring the company's progress in debt reduction and sustained profitability improvement.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for Wynn Resorts (WYNN):

12-Month Outlook for WYNN (Hold / Neutral)

The outlook for Wynn Resorts over the next year is heavily dependent on the continued robust recovery in Macau's gaming revenue, which serves as the primary positive catalyst. However, this potential upside is significantly tempered by the company's substantial debt burden and weakening profitability in its other segments, creating notable downside risks. Given the current overvaluation relative to its financial foundation, the stock is likely to remain volatile and trade within a wide range, with a potential downside toward the $90-100 level if operational pressures persist.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about WYNN's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $116.88, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, WYNN has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) has demonstrated mixed performance, with recent declines partially offset by relative outperformance against the broader market over a three-month period.

The stock has faced significant headwinds in the short term, declining approximately 7% over the past month and nearly 6% over the past three months. However, its relative strength compared to the market is positive, indicating it has fallen less than the market benchmark. The stock's beta above 1.0 confirms its higher volatility compared to the overall market.

At its current price of $116.40, WYNN trades near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($65.25 to $134.72), suggesting it is neither technically overbought nor oversold. While the substantial maximum drawdown of -29% highlights the stock's volatility and past weakness, its current position indicates a neutral technical stance relative to its recent trading history.

Revenue & Profitability Wynn demonstrates solid revenue growth with Q3 2025 revenue increasing to $1.83 billion from $1.74 billion in Q2, while maintaining a stable gross profit margin around 41-42%. However, profitability metrics show pressure as the net income ratio declined to 4.8% in Q3 from 3.8% in Q2, primarily due to increased tax expenses and other income charges.

Financial Health The company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 1.76 and substantial cash reserves of $19.06 per share. However, concerningly high debt ratios are evident with a debt ratio of 95.3% and negative equity position, resulting in constrained cash flow coverage ratios despite solid operating cash flow generation.

Operational Efficiency Operational metrics show mixed performance with a negative return on equity of -23.9% reflecting the equity deficit, though return on capital employed remains positive at 2.7%. The company maintains efficient working capital management with a short cash conversion cycle of 7.6 days, supported by strong inventory and receivables turnover rates.

Of course. Here is the valuation analysis for Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

Valuation Level Wynn Resorts presents a contradictory valuation picture based on traditional metrics. The trailing P/E of 19.87 appears reasonable, but the significantly higher forward P/E of 37.36 suggests expectations for a steep earnings decline, which is corroborated by a deeply negative P/B ratio, indicating negative book value per share. While the P/S ratio of 1.7 seems modest based on sales, the extremely high EV/EBITDA of 47.82 signals that the market values its core operating earnings at a substantial premium, pointing to an overvalued position when considering profitability and balance sheet health.

Peer Comparison A direct comparison against casino industry averages is unavailable, but the company's metrics can be assessed independently. The negative P/B ratio is atypical for asset-heavy businesses like casinos and highlights significant financial distress or accounting anomalies. The PEG ratio above 1.0 indicates the stock's price is not justified by its expected growth rate. Overall, the combination of a negative book value and a soaring EV/EBITDA, even without industry benchmarks, strongly suggests WYNN is overvalued relative to its current financial fundamentals.

Wynn Resorts exhibits moderate volatility risk with a beta slightly above 1 (1.078), suggesting its price movements are generally in line with the broader market but with a slight tendency to be more volatile. The significant one-year maximum drawdown of -29.28% highlights the stock's exposure to substantial price declines, indicating investors must be prepared for potential sharp downturns in its valuation.

Regarding other risks, the absence of short interest is a positive indicator, suggesting minimal speculative pressure from bearish investors. However, as a company in the cyclical gaming and resort industry, it remains exposed to macroeconomic headwinds, discretionary spending cuts, and regional regulatory changes that can significantly impact earnings and liquidity.