Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$96.92
+0.15%
Wynn Resorts Ltd operates luxury casinos and resorts, primarily through its iconic properties in Macau, Las Vegas, and Boston. As a premier player in the global gambling, resorts, and casinos industry, the company is known for its high-end brand and integrated resort model. The current investor narrative centers on the company's growth trajectory, driven by the upcoming opening of a managed resort in the UAE in 2027 and a new tower in Macau, while balancing the recovery of its Macau operations and the performance of its U.S. properties.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$96.92
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Rating: Buy. WYNN offers a compelling risk/reward with 39.2% upside to the average analyst target of $134.53, supported by a Strong Buy consensus. The thesis hinges on earnings growth from Macau recovery and UAE expansion, which should close the gap between trailing (38.1x) and forward (18.2x) P/E.
Supporting evidence: (1) Forward P/E of 18.2x is a 17% discount to the industry average of 22x. (2) Revenue grew 9.2% YoY in Q1 2026, with net margin expanding from 4.3% to 6.5%. (3) Trailing FCF of $693M demonstrates cash generation ability. (4) The P/S ratio of 1.75x is well below the 5-year average of 6x, indicating value on a sales basis. (5) Analyst EPS estimates of $6.19 for the current year imply a forward P/E of 15.6x, further supporting undervaluation.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are execution on the UAE/Macau projects and Macau regulatory headwinds. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if the forward P/E expands above 22x without earnings materializing. Upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock breaks above $110 (resistance) or if UAE project details confirm higher-than-expected returns. Overall, WYNN appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects and analyst targets.
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WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
WYNN's valuation is attractive on forward earnings and sales, with strong analyst support and tangible growth catalysts. The base case of 50% probability targets $118-$134, offering 22-39% upside. However, the bear case (20%) highlights execution risk and leverage. The bullish stance is driven by the discount to peers and the potential for earnings to catch up, but confidence is medium due to the stock's persistent downtrend and negative equity. An upgrade to high confidence would require sustained revenue growth above 10% and positive free cash flow. A downgrade to neutral would occur if the forward P/E exceeds 22x without earnings growth.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $133.74 and implied upside of +38.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$133.74
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+38.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$118 - $145
Analyst target range
WYNN is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating of 1.2 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $134.53, implying 39.2% upside from the current price of $96.64. The distribution shows 0 holds and 0 sells, indicating unanimous bullish sentiment among analysts. Recent ratings from major firms (JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Barclays, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Mizuho, BofA) are all positive, with no downgrades in the past three months.
The target price range spans from $118.00 (low) to $150.00 (high), representing a spread of $32.00 or 27% of the average target. The low target of $118.00 still implies 22.1% upside, suggesting that even the most bearish analyst sees value. The high target of $150.00 implies 55.2% upside, likely assuming successful execution of the UAE resort and Macau expansion. The wide range reflects uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of these catalysts. The consensus EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $6.19, with a range of $5.35 to $7.39, indicating confidence in earnings growth. The strong buy consensus and recent upgrades support a bullish outlook, but the wide target spread highlights execution risk.
Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
WYNN presents a classic value vs. growth debate. The bull case rests on strong analyst consensus (39.2% upside), a forward P/E discount to peers, and tangible growth catalysts in the UAE and Macau. The bear case highlights a high trailing P/E, negative equity, persistent price weakness, and execution risk on long-term projects. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the unanimous analyst support and the potential for earnings to catch up with valuation. The single most important tension is whether WYNN can deliver the earnings growth implied by its forward P/E (18.2x) — if it does, the stock is undervalued; if not, the trailing P/E of 38x leaves significant downside.
Bullish
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: 19 analysts rate WYNN a Strong Buy with a mean target of $134.53, implying 39.2% upside from $96.64. Even the lowest target of $118 offers 22.1% upside, indicating broad confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- Forward P/E Discount to Peers: WYNN's forward P/E of 18.2x is 17% below the industry average of 22x, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to peers on expected earnings. This discount could narrow as earnings materialize, driving price appreciation.
- Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion: Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.2% YoY to $1.857B, with net margin improving from 4.3% to 6.5%. Operating margin expanded to 15.9%, and trailing FCF of $693M provides a solid cash generation base for investments.
- Growth Catalysts: UAE and Macau Expansion: The managed UAE resort opening in 2027 and a new 432-suite Macau tower in 2029 represent significant long-term growth drivers. These projects could add substantial EBITDA, with the UAE alone potentially contributing $300M+ annually.
Bearish
- High Trailing P/E and Negative Equity: The trailing P/E of 38.1x is a 73% premium to the industry average of 22x, and the debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6 reflects negative shareholders' equity. This financial leverage amplifies risk if earnings falter.
- Persistent Price Downtrend and Weak Momentum: WYNN is down 11.7% over the past year and 5.5% in the last month, trading near its 52-week low of $93.15. Relative strength vs. the S&P 500 is -30% over one year, indicating sustained underperformance.
- Heavy Capex and Negative Free Cash Flow: In Q1 2026, free cash flow was -$25.6M due to $179M in capital expenditures. While investments support growth, they strain liquidity and increase reliance on debt, with interest expense of $152M per quarter.
- Execution Risk on Growth Projects: The UAE resort and Macau tower are years away (2027 and 2029), with no guaranteed returns. Delays or cost overruns could pressure margins and delay the earnings growth needed to justify the forward P/E.
WYNN Technical Analysis
WYNN is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock declining 11.7% over the past year and currently trading at 71.7% of its 52-week range (price $96.64 vs. 52-week low of $93.15 and high of $134.72). The stock is near the lower end of its range, suggesting bearish sentiment and potential value opportunity, but also risk of further downside if fundamentals deteriorate. The 1-year price change of -11.7% contrasts with the S&P 500's gain of 18.4%, indicating significant relative weakness.
Short-term momentum remains negative, with the stock down 5.5% over the past month and 11.5% over the past three months. The 1-month decline of 5.5% is steeper than the 3-month decline, suggesting accelerating selling pressure. The relative strength vs. the S&P 500 is deeply negative over all periods, with a 1-month relative strength of -5.9% and a 1-year relative strength of -30.0%, confirming persistent underperformance. The stock's beta of 0.99 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, offering no cushion during downturns.
Key support lies at the 52-week low of $93.15, a break below which could signal further downside toward the next major support level. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $134.72, representing a 39.4% upside from current levels. A breakout above resistance would require a significant catalyst, such as stronger-than-expected earnings or positive news on the UAE resort. The 52-week range is wide ($93.15-$134.72), reflecting high volatility and uncertainty.
Beta
0.99
0.99x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$93-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
-10.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.6% | +0.8% |
| 3m | -8.3% | +3.5% |
| 6m | -14.6% | +7.2% |
| 1y | -10.6% | +16.5% |
| ytd | -20.9% | +8.4% |
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WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.857 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year from $1.700 billion in Q1 2025. The trailing four quarters show consistent sequential growth, with Q4 2025 at $1.866 billion, Q3 2025 at $1.834 billion, and Q2 2025 at $1.738 billion. Casino revenue remains the largest segment at $1.177 billion (63.4% of total), followed by occupancy at $290 million, food and beverage at $259 million, and entertainment/retail at $130 million. The growth trajectory is positive but decelerating from the 10.9% YoY growth seen in Q4 2024, suggesting a maturing recovery.
The company is profitable, with net income of $120.5 million in Q1 2026, up from $72.7 million in Q1 2025. Gross margin improved to 40.2% in Q1 2026 from 42.3% in Q1 2025, but operating margin expanded to 15.9% from 15.8%. Net margin rose to 6.5% from 4.3% a year ago, indicating improving operational efficiency. However, the net margin remains below the industry average for casinos, which typically exceed 10%, suggesting room for further improvement. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $693 million, providing a solid cash generation base.
Wynn's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6, reflecting negative shareholders' equity due to accumulated losses and share buybacks. The current ratio of 1.63 indicates adequate liquidity, and the company generated $153 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026. However, free cash flow was negative $25.6 million in Q1 due to heavy capital expenditures of $179 million for property investments. The ROE is negative at -118.8%, but this is distorted by negative equity; ROA of 5.6% is more meaningful and shows improving asset efficiency. The company's reliance on debt financing is evident, with interest expense of $152 million in Q1 2026, but EBITDA of $474 million provides comfortable coverage.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$693068000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 38.1x, while the forward P/E is 18.2x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The large gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp earnings recovery, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth from new projects.
Compared to the industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), WYNN's trailing P/E of 38.1x represents a 73% premium. However, the forward P/E of 18.2x is at a 17% discount to the industry average, indicating that the market is pricing in above-average earnings growth. The EV/EBITDA of 13.2x is in line with casino peers, which typically trade between 12x-15x. The premium on trailing earnings may be justified by Wynn's strong brand and growth catalysts, but the forward discount suggests potential value if earnings materialize.
Historically, WYNN's trailing P/E has ranged from 8x to 38x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 38.1x is near the top of its historical range, implying that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. The forward P/E of 18.2x is closer to the historical median, suggesting that the current valuation is not excessively stretched if the company delivers on earnings estimates. The P/S ratio of 1.75x is below the 5-year average of 6x, indicating potential value on a sales basis.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: WYNN's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6 due to negative equity from accumulated losses and buybacks. Interest expense of $152M in Q1 2026 consumes a significant portion of operating income ($294M), leaving a thin margin for error. The company's negative free cash flow of -$25.6M in Q1, driven by $179M in capex, indicates reliance on debt or equity financing for growth investments. Net margin of 6.5% remains below the industry average of 10%+, suggesting operational efficiency still lags peers.
Market & Competitive Risks: WYNN's trailing P/E of 38.1x is a 73% premium to the industry average, making it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. The stock's beta of 0.99 offers no downside protection in market downturns, and its 1-year relative strength of -30% vs. the S&P 500 signals persistent underperformance. Regulatory risks in Macau and potential competition from new UAE casinos could pressure market share. Recent news of cooling inflation may support rate-sensitive stocks, but WYNN's high leverage makes it sensitive to interest rate changes.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of Macau revenue slowdown, cost overruns on the UAE project, and a broader market correction could drive WYNN to its 52-week low of $93.15, representing a 3.6% decline from current levels. However, if earnings miss estimates and the forward P/E re-rates to 15x (in line with historical lows), the stock could fall to $80, a 17% downside. In a severe recession, the stock could test $70, a 28% decline from current prices, consistent with its historical max drawdown of -28.9%.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Financial leverage — debt-to-equity of -44.6 and interest expense of $152M per quarter consume a large portion of operating income. (2) Execution risk — the UAE resort and Macau tower are years away, and delays could hurt sentiment. (3) Macau regulatory risk — any tightening of gaming laws or slower recovery could reduce earnings. (4) Valuation risk — the trailing P/E of 38.1x leaves little room for error; a miss on earnings could trigger multiple compression. The most severe risk is a recession that cuts Macau visitation and U.S. spending, potentially driving the stock to $70 (28% downside).
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case (50% probability) targeting $118-$134, representing 22-39% upside. The bull case (30% probability) sees the stock reaching $134-$150 on strong Macau recovery and UAE progress. The bear case (20% probability) sees downside to $93-$118 if growth disappoints. The average analyst target is $134.53, implying 39.2% upside from $96.64. The most likely scenario is the base case, where earnings grow in line with consensus and the stock re-rates toward a forward P/E of 20x.
WYNN is undervalued on a forward basis but overvalued on a trailing basis. The forward P/E of 18.2x is 17% below the industry average of 22x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. However, the trailing P/E of 38.1x is a 73% premium to peers, reflecting that current earnings are depressed. The P/S ratio of 1.75x is well below the 5-year average of 6x, indicating value on a sales basis. Overall, the stock is fairly valued if it meets EPS estimates of $6.19, but overvalued if earnings disappoint. The market is pricing in a sharp recovery, which is plausible given the growth catalysts.
WYNN appears to be a good buy for investors with a 12-month horizon, given the 39.2% upside to the average analyst target of $134.53 and a Strong Buy consensus from all 19 analysts. The forward P/E of 18.2x is a 17% discount to the industry average, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to expected earnings. However, the trailing P/E of 38.1x and negative equity highlight financial risk, and the stock is in a downtrend, down 11.7% over the past year. It is a good buy for those who believe in the Macau recovery and UAE growth story, but risk-averse investors may prefer to wait for a break above $105 resistance.
WYNN is more suitable for long-term investment (12-24 months) due to its growth catalysts in the UAE (2027) and Macau (2029), which require patience to materialize. The stock's beta of 0.99 and high volatility (52-week range of $93-$135) make it risky for short-term trading, especially given the current downtrend. The dividend yield of 1.4% provides a small income cushion. Short-term traders could play a bounce from support near $93, but the risk of further decline is significant. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the earnings story to unfold.