ExxonMobil
XOM
$155.44
-0.97%
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide, with a significant presence in chemicals manufacturing. As one of the world's largest publicly traded energy companies, it holds a dominant market position with substantial reserves and refining capacity, distinguishing itself through scale and vertical integration. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience amid volatile oil prices, its 43-year dividend growth streak, and strategic positioning in LNG and petrochemicals, while geopolitical events and OPEC+ decisions continue to drive short-term sentiment. Recent news highlights a 3% dividend yield and a diversified business model as key attractions for income-focused investors.…
XOM
ExxonMobil
$155.44
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy XOM Today?
Rating: Buy. ExxonMobil is a high-quality integrated energy company with a strong balance sheet and a 43-year dividend growth streak. The consensus analyst rating is 'Buy' with an average price target of $167.23, implying a 7.58% upside from the current price of $155.44. The stock offers a dividend yield of 3.31% and trades at a forward P/E of 14.68x, which is attractive relative to its historical average and the industry average of 15x.
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XOM 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. ExxonMobil's valuation is reasonable, but the earnings decline and oil price sensitivity create uncertainty. The stock's low beta and strong dividend provide downside support, but upside is limited unless oil prices recover. Key factors to watch include oil price trends, refining margins, and the company's ability to maintain its dividend growth. An upgrade to bullish would require oil prices to stabilize above $80 and refining margins to improve, while a downgrade to bearish would occur if oil prices fall below $60 and the dividend is cut.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ExxonMobil's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $167.09 and implied upside of +7.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$167.09
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$130 - $185
Analyst target range
ExxonMobil is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.4 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $167.23, implying an upside of 7.58% from the current price of $155.44. The distribution of ratings includes 14 Buy, 6 Hold, and 2 Sell, reflecting a generally bullish sentiment. The low target of $130.00 suggests a potential downside of 16.4%, while the high target of $185.00 implies an upside of 19.0%, indicating a wide dispersion in analyst expectations. Recent actions show a mix of upgrades and reiterations, with B of A Securities upgrading from Neutral to Buy in June 2026, while Mizuho maintained a Neutral stance. The wide target range highlights uncertainty around oil price trajectories and refining margins, but the overall consensus leans positive, supported by the company's strong cash generation and shareholder returns.
Bulls vs Bears: XOM Investment Factors
ExxonMobil presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The bull case is anchored by its 43-year dividend growth streak, strong balance sheet, and attractive forward valuation, while the bear case is driven by declining earnings, margin compression, and high oil price sensitivity. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the company's scale and financial resilience, but the key tension is the trajectory of oil prices and refining margins. If oil prices recover, the stock could re-rate higher; if they remain weak, earnings and the dividend could come under pressure. The stock's performance will largely hinge on these commodity dynamics.
Bullish
- 43-Year Dividend Growth Streak: ExxonMobil has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating financial resilience and a commitment to shareholder returns. The current dividend yield of 3.31% provides a solid income component, supported by a payout ratio of 59.7% of earnings.
- Strong 1-Year Price Performance: The stock has gained 39.23% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.19% return. This reflects robust operational performance and investor confidence in the company's integrated business model.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: With a forward P/E of 14.68x, the stock is priced at a discount to its trailing P/E of 18.07x, implying expected earnings growth. This is slightly below the industry average forward P/E of 15x, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the recovery potential.
- Analyst Consensus is Buy: The consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 2.4 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell). The average price target of $167.23 implies a 7.58% upside from the current price of $155.44, with 14 Buy ratings out of 22 analysts.
Bearish
- Declining Net Income: Q1 2026 net income fell to $4.18 billion from $7.71 billion in Q1 2025, a 45.8% drop. This was driven by weaker refining margins and lower oil prices, highlighting earnings volatility tied to commodity cycles.
- Operating Margin Compression: Operating margin contracted to 6.36% in Q1 2026 from 12.15% in the year-ago quarter. This indicates significant pressure on core profitability, which could persist if refining margins remain weak.
- Premium Valuation to Peers: The trailing P/E of 18.07x is 20% above the industry average of 15x. While the premium may be justified by scale, it leaves limited room for multiple expansion and increases downside risk if earnings disappoint.
- High Sensitivity to Oil Prices: Recent news highlights that oil prices tumbled nearly 20% in May 2026, the biggest drop since 2020. ExxonMobil's earnings are highly correlated with crude prices, and a sustained downturn could significantly impact cash flows.
XOM Technical Analysis
ExxonMobil's stock has demonstrated a robust uptrend over the past year, with a 39.23% price increase, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.19% gain. The current price of $155.44 sits at 88% of its 52-week range (low: $105.53, high: $176.41), indicating proximity to the upper end of its trading band. This positioning suggests strong momentum, though it also implies the stock may be vulnerable to profit-taking after a substantial run. The 1-year relative strength of 21.04% underscores its outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength of -1.90% hints at a recent loss of relative momentum.
Beta
0.16
0.16x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$106-$176
Price range past year
Annual Return
+39.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | XOM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.1% | +0.3% |
| 3m | +1.8% | +4.0% |
| 6m | +9.9% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +39.2% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +26.7% | +9.6% |
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XOM Fundamental Analysis
In Q1 2026, ExxonMobil reported revenue of $83.16 billion, a 2.59% year-over-year increase, reflecting modest growth despite a challenging commodity price environment. Net income for the quarter was $4.18 billion, down from $7.71 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to weaker refining margins and lower oil prices. The company's gross margin improved to 37.71% in Q1 2026, up from 22.80% in the year-ago quarter, driven by lower costs and a favorable product mix. However, operating margin contracted to 6.36% from 12.15% in Q1 2025, indicating pressure on core profitability. The net margin of 5.03% in Q1 2026 is well below the 9.52% recorded in Q1 2025, reflecting the impact of higher taxes and impairments.
Quarterly Revenue
$83.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$18.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is XOM Overvalued?
Given ExxonMobil's positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 18.07x is the primary valuation metric, while the forward P/E of 14.68x suggests the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward multiples implies an anticipated recovery in earnings, likely driven by higher oil prices and cost discipline. Compared to the industry average P/E of 15x (based on sector data), ExxonMobil trades at a 20% premium, which may be justified by its superior scale, integrated model, and strong balance sheet. Historically, the stock's P/E has ranged from 4.64x (Q3 2022) to 42.42x (Q1 2026), with the current trailing P/E of 18.07x sitting near the middle of this band, suggesting a fair valuation relative to its own history.
PE
18.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: ExxonMobil's earnings are highly cyclical, as evidenced by the 45.8% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 net income to $4.18 billion. The company's operating margin contracted to 6.36% from 12.15% a year ago, reflecting pressure from weaker refining margins. While the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.168, the company's cash flow is sensitive to oil prices; a sustained drop below $60 per barrel could strain its ability to maintain the dividend, which has a payout ratio of 59.7%. Additionally, revenue growth is modest at 2.59% YoY, indicating limited top-line expansion in a mature industry.