Zillow
Z
$34.96
-1.96%
Zillow Group, Inc. is a real estate technology company that operates a digital platform connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals, offering services that span the entire home journey from shopping to financing. As a market leader in online real estate marketplaces, Zillow leverages its iconic brands like Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy to dominate the sector. Currently, the stock is under pressure due to competitive threats from Google, rising mortgage rates, and a challenging housing market, but the company is investing in AI-driven engagement to strengthen its long-term position. Investors are debating whether Zillow can defend its market share and sustain growth amid these cyclical and structural headwinds.…
Z
Zillow
$34.96
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy Z Today?
Based on the analysis, Zillow is rated a Hold. The consensus analyst recommendation is 'Hold' with an average target price of $46.00, implying a 29% upside from the current price of $35.66. The thesis is that Zillow's improving fundamentals and attractive forward valuation are offset by competitive threats and housing market cyclicality, making it a wait-and-see proposition.
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Z 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Zillow's improving fundamentals, including accelerating revenue growth and a return to profitability, are positive, but the stock's severe underperformance and competitive threats from Google create significant uncertainty. The forward valuation is attractive, but the trailing PE of 717x highlights the risk of a profitability shortfall. The stance would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth sustains above 20% and the company gains market share, or downgrade to bearish if the housing market deteriorates and Google disrupts the business.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Zillow's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $46.00 and implied upside of +31.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$46.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+31.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$34 - $62
Analyst target range
With 6 analysts covering Zillow, the consensus recommendation is 'Hold', with a mean rating of 2.57 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $46.00, implying a 29.0% upside from the current price of $35.66. The target range spans from a low of $34.00 to a high of $62.00, with the low target suggesting a potential 4.7% downside, while the high target implies a 73.9% upside. The wide spread between the low and high targets indicates high uncertainty about Zillow's future performance. Recent ratings have been mixed, with Jefferies maintaining a Buy and JP Morgan an Overweight, while Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Needham have Hold/Perform ratings. The presence of a 'Hold' consensus and the wide target range reflect the market's uncertainty regarding Zillow's ability to navigate competitive threats and housing market cyclicality.
Bulls vs Bears: Z Investment Factors
Zillow presents a classic high-risk, high-reward scenario. The bull case rests on accelerating revenue growth, a return to profitability, and a strong balance sheet, while the bear case is driven by severe stock underperformance, extreme trailing valuation, and competitive threats from Google. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the stock's 58% decline and the challenging housing market, but the forward PE of 12.78x suggests the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery. The most important tension is whether Zillow can sustain its profitability inflection and defend its market share against Google, which would determine if the stock is a value trap or a turnaround opportunity.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 18.39% YoY to $708M, up from 9.4% growth in Q1 2025, indicating accelerating momentum. This is driven by strength in residential ($450M) and rental ($183M) segments, showing diversified growth.
- Return to Profitability: Zillow turned profitable in Q1 2026 with net income of $46M, a sharp improvement from a net loss of $52M in Q4 2024. Operating margin swung to +5.08% from -12.45%, reflecting successful cost discipline and operating leverage.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and current ratio of 3.13, Zillow has ample liquidity. Q1 2026 free cash flow was $164M, and TTM FCF is $431M, providing a solid foundation for internal funding and strategic investments.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Despite a high trailing PE of 717x, the forward PE is just 12.78x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. This suggests the stock is priced for a profitability inflection, offering upside if earnings materialize.
Bearish
- Severe Stock Underperformance: Zillow's stock has fallen 58.19% over the past year, drastically underperforming the S&P 500's +18.56% gain. The stock trades near its 52-week low of $29.23, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment and significant value destruction.
- Extreme Valuation on Trailing Earnings: The trailing PE of 717x is extremely high, indicating that current earnings are minimal relative to the price. This leaves no room for error; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Competitive Threat from Google: Recent news highlights real competitive threats from Google, which could erode Zillow's market share in online real estate listings. This is a structural risk that could pressure revenue growth and margins over the long term.
- High Volatility and Downside Risk: With a beta of 1.976, Zillow is nearly twice as volatile as the market. The stock has a max drawdown of -67.44%, and the 52-week low of $29.23 implies a potential 18% downside from the current price of $35.66.
Z Technical Analysis
Zillow's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -58.19%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.56% gain over the same period. The current price of $35.66 is near the lower end of its 52-week range, sitting at approximately 38% of the range (calculated as (35.66 - 29.23) / (93.88 - 29.23) = 0.101, or 10.1% from the low). This positioning near the lows suggests bearish sentiment and potential value, but also reflects the risk of a falling knife. The stock's beta of 1.976 indicates it is nearly twice as volatile as the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
1.98
1.98x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-67.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$29-$94
Price range past year
Annual Return
-58.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | Z Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +2.7% |
| 3m | -3.9% | +1.0% |
| 6m | -23.7% | +12.0% |
| 1y | -58.5% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -47.0% | +12.5% |
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Z Fundamental Analysis
Zillow's revenue has shown solid growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $708 million, up 18.39% year-over-year, accelerating from the 9.4% growth in Q1 2025. The company's residential segment generated $450 million, while rental revenue contributed $183 million, indicating diversified growth drivers. However, the growth rate has been inconsistent, with Q4 2025 revenue of $654 million and Q3 2025 at $676 million, suggesting some quarterly volatility. The company turned profitable in Q1 2026 with net income of $46 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $52 million in Q4 2024, and gross margin remains strong at 73.31%. Operating margin turned positive at 5.08% in Q1 2026, up from -12.45% in Q4 2024, reflecting improved cost discipline. Zillow's balance sheet is healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and a current ratio of 3.13, indicating ample liquidity. The company generated $164 million in free cash flow in Q1 2026, and its trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $431 million, providing a solid foundation for internal funding. ROE is low at 0.47%, but this is expected given the company's asset-light model and recent profitability.
Quarterly Revenue
$708000000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+18.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
73.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$431000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is Z Overvalued?
Given Zillow's positive net income, the trailing PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, currently at 717.46x, which is extremely high due to minimal earnings. The forward PE of 12.78x is much lower, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, but the gap also highlights the uncertainty in near-term profitability. Compared to the industry average PS ratio of 6.39x, Zillow's PS ratio of 6.39x is in line, but its EV/Sales of 2.79x is below the sector, suggesting a potential discount. Historically, Zillow's PE has ranged from negative to over 2000x, and the current trailing PE is near the higher end, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic future earnings. The PEG ratio is negative at -5.99, reflecting the expected earnings growth, but this is not meaningful given the low base.
PE
717.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 52x~1376x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
48.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. Zillow's trailing PE of 717x leaves no cushion for earnings disappointments, and while the company turned profitable in Q1 2026, the net margin is only 0.89%, indicating thin profitability. The company's revenue growth, while accelerating, has been volatile, with quarterly revenue ranging from $598M to $708M over the past year. Additionally, the company's reliance on the housing market makes it sensitive to cyclical downturns, as evidenced by the net loss in Q4 2024. However, the balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and a current ratio of 3.13, providing a buffer against operational shocks.