ALK
ALKAlaska Air Group is a major passenger airline operating in the industrials sector.
It is a prominent West Coast carrier distinguished for its strong operational reliability and extensive regional network.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：ALK值得买吗？
Based on the comprehensive analysis, ALK presents a complex investment case with several key crosscurrents.
ALK's valuation metrics appear compelling, with a forward P/E of 9.17 and EV/EBITDA of 7.61 suggesting potential undervaluation relative to its fundamentals. This is supported by a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.42, indicating the market is pricing its revenue stream conservatively. However, this attractive valuation is offset by significant operational challenges, including a sharp decline in profitability and concerning liquidity ratios that point to potential financial strain. Furthermore, the stock carries substantial volatility risk with a high beta and a maximum drawdown exceeding 50%.
Investment Recommendation:
ALK offers a potentially attractive valuation proposition for value-oriented investors willing to accept elevated risk. The stock appears priced for pessimism, creating opportunity if the company can stabilize its profitability and improve its cash position. However, current weak fundamentals, high volatility, and liquidity concerns make it suitable only for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a longer time horizon. For most investors, a cautious approach is warranted until clearer signs of operational improvement emerge.
*Note: This recommendation is for reference only and not investment advice.*
ALK未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for Alaska Air Group (ALK).
12-Month Outlook for ALK:
ALK's outlook is driven by its potential for a valuation rebound if operational execution improves. Key catalysts include strong seasonal travel demand, industry-wide pricing discipline, and the full integration benefits from its Hawaiian Airlines acquisition, which could drive revenue growth. Primary risks stem from volatile fuel costs, potential economic softening impacting consumer travel budgets, and the operational complexity of integrating Hawaiian Airlines. While the current valuation appears attractive, these headwinds present significant challenges. Given the mixed fundamentals, a conservative 12-month price target would be in the range of $58 - $68, reflecting the potential for multiple expansion if the company demonstrates improved profitability and cash flow stability, but also acknowledging the substantial operational and macroeconomic risks.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 25% | $75.0 - $85.0 | Strong operational turnaround with improved profitability and successful debt management |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 50% | $60.0 - $70.0 | Gradual recovery with stabilization of profitability metrics and moderate progress on liquidity |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 25% | $40.0 - $50.0 | Profitability challenges persist while liquidity constraints limit growth opportunities |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对ALK未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$65.87左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资ALK的利好利空
综合来看，ALK具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Undervalued Opportunity: Stock appears deeply oversold presenting attractive buying opportunity.
- Significant Upside Potential: Analysts project up to 51% upside based on current valuation.
- Temporary Setbacks: Recent decline attributed to short-term issues rather than fundamental problems.
利空
- Sharp Price Decline: Stock down 19% over three months, underperforming the market.
- Mounting Cost Pressures: Rising costs are straining profitability and eroding investor confidence.
- Weakening Liquidity: Financial flexibility concerns are emerging amid operational challenges.
ALK 技术面分析
ALK has demonstrated mixed performance with strong recent momentum but overall weak longer-term results compared to the market.
The stock has surged 24.79% over the past month, indicating robust short-term momentum, though it remains down 2.67% over three months and has underperformed the market by 7.4% during this period. This suggests the recent rally may be a rebound from earlier weakness rather than sustained outperformance.
Currently trading at $51.49, ALK sits near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($37.63-$78.08), indicating neither strongly overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the stock's high beta of 1.238 and significant 50.63% maximum drawdown highlight above-average volatility and substantial downside risk over the past year.
| 时间段 | ALK涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +24.8% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -2.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +9.6% | +16.8% |
| 1y | -21.8% | +17.4% |
| ytd | -19.9% | +19.5% |
ALK 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability: ALK's revenue grew modestly from $3.70B to $3.77B quarter-over-quarter. However, profitability weakened significantly, with the net income ratio declining sharply from 4.6% to 1.9% due to a substantial increase in operating expenses, particularly other expenses which rose from $564M to $3.36B. The gross profit ratio appears anomalously high in Q3 due to an unusually low cost of revenue, which may indicate a reporting anomaly affecting comparability.
Financial Health: The company maintains a moderate debt ratio of 32%, but its cash position is concerning with a low cash ratio of 0.12 and a current ratio of 0.52, indicating potential liquidity constraints. The interest coverage ratio of 2.39 is relatively low, suggesting limited cushion for servicing debt obligations from operating earnings.
Operational Efficiency: Operational efficiency metrics show some strain, with ROE at just 1.8% and asset turnover of 0.19 reflecting below-average utilization of assets. The negative cash conversion cycle of -178 days is favorable, indicating the company collects from customers long before paying suppliers, though this advantage is offset by weak overall cash flow generation relative to debt obligations.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：ALK是否被高估？
Valuation metrics for ALK present a mixed but ultimately positive picture. The stock appears significantly overvalued by its TTM PE of 42.55, yet this is misleading due to recent earnings pressures, as evidenced by the attractive forward PE of 9.17. The valuation is much more compelling when considering the reasonable PB of 1.47, the low PS of 0.42, and a solid EV/EBITDA of 7.61, all of which suggest the stock is not overpriced on fundamental asset and sales bases.
A peer comparison is not feasible as industry average data is unavailable. However, based on absolute valuation standards, a forward PE below 10 coupled with an EV/EBITDA under 8 is generally considered very attractive. The low PS ratio further indicates the market is valuing ALK's revenue stream conservatively, pointing to potential undervaluation absent any severe industry-wide headwinds.
投资风险提示
Volatility risk is elevated, as the stock's beta of 1.238 indicates it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. This is compounded by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -50.63%, highlighting severe downside risk and significant potential for capital loss during market downturns.
Other risks appear relatively contained, with a low short interest of 2.14% suggesting minimal active bearish sentiment. While specific liquidity metrics are not provided, such a low short interest generally correlates with lower risk of a short squeeze and smoother trading conditions for the stock.
常见问题
I am neutral-to-bearish on ALK currently. While the forward valuation looks compelling and analyst sentiment is positive, the weakening profitability, concerning liquidity ratios, and high volatility present significant near-term risk. This stock may appeal to speculative contrarian investors with a high risk tolerance, but it is not suitable for conservative investors seeking stability.
Based on the data provided, ALK appears undervalued when focusing on its normalized earnings potential. While the trailing PE of 42.55 is very high, the more compelling forward PE of 9.17 suggests the market expects a significant earnings recovery, making the stock inexpensive on a forward-looking basis. This view is supported by a low Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 0.42 and a modest Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.47, which indicate the market is valuing the company's sales and assets conservatively. The primary reason for this potential undervaluation is the current, likely temporary, depression in profitability, and if earnings rebound as the forward PE implies, the stock offers attractive value.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding ALK:
1. Elevated Volatility and Substantial Downside Risk: The stock's high beta (1.238) and severe one-year maximum drawdown (-50.63%) indicate it is significantly more volatile than the market with a major risk of capital loss during downturns. 2. Weakened Profitability and Strained Financial Health: A sharp decline in the net income ratio and concerning liquidity metrics (cash ratio of 0.12, current ratio of 0.52) paired with a low interest coverage ratio (2.39) signal pressure on earnings and potential difficulty meeting short-term obligations. 3. Operational Inefficiency: Poor returns on equity (1.8%) and asset turnover (0.19) reflect fundamental weaknesses in utilizing capital and assets to generate profits, posing a long-term business risk. 4. Uncertain Momentum: The stock's strong recent rally may be a technical rebound from prior weakness rather than sustained outperformance, suggesting the price uptrend lacks a clear fundamental catalyst and could reverse.
Based on the current fundamentals and industry dynamics, ALK's forecast through 2026 is one of cautious optimism, contingent on successful execution.
Target Price Range & Key Drivers Our base case target for 2026 is $70 - $80, with a bull case of up to $95 if the Hawaiian Airlines integration yields significant synergies and travel demand remains robust. Key growth drivers are: 1) the successful integration of Hawaiian Airlines, driving revenue and cost synergies; 2) sustained industry-wide pricing discipline and strong travel demand; and 3) improved operational execution leading to better cost control and profitability.
Main Assumptions & Uncertainty This forecast assumes ALK can stabilize its profitability, improve its weak liquidity position, and navigate economic cycles without a severe recession. The uncertainty is high; the forecast is highly sensitive to fuel price volatility, the economic outlook's impact on consumer travel, and the significant operational execution risk associated with the Hawaiian Airlines acquisition.
Based on ALK's high volatility (beta 1.238) and severe 50%+ drawdown, medium-to-long-term investment is recommended to withstand its turbulence. For long-term investors (3+ years), a value-oriented strategy is suitable, capitalizing on its attractive forward valuation while allowing time for operational improvement. Medium-term holders (6 months-3 years) should adopt a cautious stance, monitoring quarterly profitability and liquidity metrics closely. Short-term traders (under 6 months) face elevated risk due to ALK's sharp price swings, requiring strict technical triggers and stop-loss discipline.