APLD
APLDApplied Digital Corporation operates data centers and provides AI cloud services within the information technology sector.
It positions itself as a next-generation digital infrastructure provider specializing in high-performance computing solutions for artificial intelligence and other intensive workloads.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：APLD值得买吗？
Analysis of APLD Stock
Technical Perspective APLD demonstrates extreme volatility with a beta of 7.1, signaling swings far exceeding market averages. While recent modest gains are present, the stock remains 40% below its 52-week high and exhibits a history of severe drawdowns. Current trading levels suggest instability rather than a clear directional trend, making timing an entry challenging.
Fundamental Perspective Revenue growth is strong, but profitability is deeply negative with declining margins and persistent cash burn. The company's weak liquidity and negative cash flow raise concerns about its ability to meet obligations. Operational inefficiency is evident from poor returns on equity and assets, indicating struggles to generate value from investments.
Valuation & Risk APLD appears overvalued with extremely high revenue multiples and no positive earnings. Its extreme volatility and history of sharp declines present substantial downside risk. The combination of weak fundamentals and premium valuation creates a risky profile, particularly in uncertain market conditions.
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Investment Recommendation
APLD is not recommended for purchase at this time. The stock's extreme volatility, persistent unprofitability, and weak financial health outweigh its revenue growth. While speculative investors may be drawn to its momentum, the elevated risks of capital erosion and operational instability make it unsuitable for most portfolios. Caution is strongly advised until the company demonstrates sustainable profitability and improved cash flow.
APLD未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on my analysis, here is the 12-month outlook for APLD:
12-Month Outlook for APLD
APLD's outlook is highly speculative, with its primary catalyst being the potential for continued rapid revenue growth to eventually justify its premium valuation and capture investor optimism in its sector. However, significant risks dominate, including its extreme volatility, persistent cash burn which threatens its liquidity, and the lack of a clear path to profitability. While the consensus analyst target price of $43.7 suggests substantial upside from the current $24.05, this appears contingent on a best-case scenario; a more realistic target range given the fundamental weaknesses is likely between $15 and $35, reflecting the high probability of severe price swings in either direction. Investors should be prepared for a turbulent year with the potential for dramatic gains or losses.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 15% | $50.0 - $56.0 | Strong revenue growth continues and the company achieves operational efficiencies, narrowing losses and attracting speculative momentum |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 45% | $35.0 - $45.0 | Revenue growth moderates but remains positive while profitability challenges persist, stock trades based on growth potential despite weak fundamentals |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 40% | $15.0 - $25.0 | Cash burn accelerates, liquidity concerns mount, and extreme volatility leads to significant downside as growth narrative falters |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对APLD未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$43.70左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资APLD的利好利空
综合来看，APLD具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Strong Q1 2026 Results: The company reported positive fiscal first quarter 2026 results, driving investor optimism.
- Significant Analyst Price Target Hike: Roth Capital raised its price target to $43 from $24, suggesting major upside potential.
- Impressive 2025 Stock Performance: APLD stock rose around 260% in 2025, indicating strong momentum.
- Macquarie Financing and Hyperscaler Deals: Secured financing and major deals position the company for future growth.
- High Growth Potential in AI Data Centers: Being an AI data center play offers exposure to a high-growth market.
利空
- High Stock Price Volatility: The stock has been incredibly volatile, leading to sharp price declines.
- Vulnerability to Broader AI Sector Sell-Offs: Performance is tied to the AI sector, which experiences market-wide sell-offs.
- Elevated Valuation Metrics: A high price-to-sales ratio of 38 suggests the stock may be overvalued.
- Questions About Sustained Momentum: Analysts question if the stock can double again after its massive 2025 gains.
- Recent Stock Price Slides: The stock has experienced significant daily declines, indicating selling pressure.
APLD 技术面分析
APLD has exhibited extreme volatility with moderate recent gains but significant historical drawdowns.
The stock shows modest 1-month (+1.31%) and 3-month (+2.56%) gains, though it underperformed the broader market by -2.17% over three months, highlighting its exceptionally high beta of 7.1 indicates dramatic swings relative to market movements. This reveals substantial instability despite recent positive returns.
Currently trading at $24.05, APLD sits at approximately 35% above its 52-week low but 40% below its peak, positioning it in the lower-middle portion of its annual range. Considering the stock's extreme volatility profile and history of sharp declines, its current level suggests ongoing instability rather than clear overbought or oversold conditions.
| 时间段 | APLD涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| 3m | +2.6% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +132.8% | +16.8% |
| 1y | +186.7% | +17.4% |
| ytd | +208.3% | +19.5% |
APLD 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability APLD shows significant revenue growth with Q1 2026 revenue increasing 69% quarter-over-quarter to $64.2 million, though profitability remains deeply negative. The company reported an operating loss of $18.6 million and a net loss of $16.9 million, with gross margins declining from 20.4% to 13.4% due to rising cost of revenue outpacing top-line growth. This indicates severe operational inefficiency despite revenue expansion.
Financial Health The company's liquidity is weak with a current ratio of 0.65 and minimal cash reserves relative to liabilities. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 appears moderate, the negative interest coverage ratio of -4.7 and negative cash flow to debt ratio demonstrate insufficient cash generation to service obligations. The negative operating cash flow per share of -$0.32 further highlights cash burn concerns.
Operational Efficiency APLD exhibits poor operational metrics with negative returns across key indicators: ROE of -1.6%, ROA of -0.7%, and asset turnover of just 0.027. The extremely low fixed asset turnover of 0.043 suggests inefficient utilization of capital investments. These metrics collectively indicate the company is failing to generate adequate returns from its asset base and equity investments.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：APLD是否被高估？
Valuation Level: APLD's valuation metrics indicate significant overvaluation concerns. With negative forward P/E and elevated PS ratio of 38.7, the company lacks positive earnings while trading at substantial revenue multiples. The extremely high EV/EBITDA of 1,268 further confirms fundamental valuation challenges, as the enterprise value dramatically exceeds operating performance.
Peer Comparison: Without industry average data available, definitive peer benchmarking cannot be established. However, a PS ratio of 38.7 would typically place APLD at the extreme high end of most industry valuations, suggesting premium pricing relative to revenue generation capabilities compared to typical market standards across sectors.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: APLD carries exceptionally high volatility risk, with a Beta of 7.1 indicating the stock is roughly seven times more volatile than the broader market. This extreme sensitivity is corroborated by a severe one-year maximum drawdown of -67.7%, highlighting the potential for significant capital depletion during market downturns.
Other Risks: APLD's relatively low short interest of 2.98% suggests minimal active bearish speculation against the stock at present. Investors should remain cautious, however, as the extreme volatility profile could exacerbate liquidity issues during periods of selling pressure, potentially leading to unfavorable price gaps.
常见问题
Bearish. Despite strong analyst forecasts, APLD exhibits severe operational inefficiencies (negative profitability, declining margins), weak financials (negative cash flow, poor liquidity), and extreme volatility (beta of 7.1, major drawdowns). Only suitable for speculative traders comfortable with high risk.
Based on the data provided, APLD stock appears to be significantly overvalued. Key metrics like a Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 38.7 and a negative Forward P/E of -28.8 are extremely elevated and indicate the stock is priced for perfection despite a complete lack of profitability. These multiples are at the extreme high end for any sector, suggesting the valuation is disconnected from the company's weak fundamentals.
The primary reason for this overvaluation is likely speculative growth expectations, as the 69% quarterly revenue growth is being heavily weighted by the market. However, this is overshadowed by severe operational inefficiency, negative cash flow, declining margins, and an inability to generate returns on assets or equity. The stock price seems to reflect optimistic future prospects that are not supported by current financial health or profitability.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding APLD stock, ordered by importance:
1. Extreme Volatility Risk: The stock carries a Beta of 7.1, making it roughly seven times more volatile than the broader market and prone to severe price swings, as evidenced by a one-year maximum drawdown of -67.7%. 2. Severe Profitability and Cash Burn Risk: Despite revenue growth, the company is deeply unprofitable with a significant net loss, declining gross margins, and negative operating cash flow, indicating it is burning cash to fund operations. 3. Weak Financial Health and Liquidity Risk: APLD has a weak current ratio of 0.65 and negative cash flow relative to its debt, demonstrating insufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations and an inability to service its debt from operations.
Based on the provided fundamental data showing severe cash burn and negative margins despite revenue growth, my 2026 forecast for APLD is speculative and weighted toward significant risk.
My base case target for 2026 is a range of $15 to $30, contingent on the company demonstrating material progress toward profitability. A bull case scenario, which would require a successful capital raise and a dramatic improvement in operational efficiency, could see the stock reach the analyst high target of $56. Key growth drivers are the continuation of rapid revenue expansion, increased utilization of its asset base, and a successful shift in market sentiment toward its long-term potential.
The main assumptions are that APLD can secure necessary funding to continue operations and that management executes a viable plan to narrow losses. However, this forecast carries exceptionally high uncertainty due to the company's weak liquidity, negative cash flow, and lack of a clear path to profitability, making the stock highly volatile and speculative.
Based on APLD's characteristics—specifically its extreme volatility (Beta of 7.1) and severe drawdown history—it is not suitable for long-term holding. Instead, it should only be considered for short-term, speculative trading by experienced investors who can actively monitor positions and manage significant risk.
- Long-term investors (3+ years): Avoid this stock due to its fundamental weaknesses, cash burn, and high risk of capital erosion over time. - Medium-term investors (6 months–3 years): Also avoid; the stock's volatility and valuation concerns make it unreliable for medium-term growth or stability. - Short-term traders (under 6 months): May trade it tactically based on momentum, but must use strict risk controls given its propensity for sharp declines.
High volatility significantly shortens the viable investment horizon, as large price swings increase timing risk and make buy-and-hold strategies perilous.