ARAY
ARAYAccuray Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells advanced radiation therapy systems for the healthcare industry's medical devices sector.
It is a niche player known for its innovative radiosurgery and radiotherapy technologies designed for precise cancer treatment.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：ARAY值得买吗？
Based on the provided analysis, ARAY presents a highly speculative and risky investment proposition.
Technical & Momentum: ARAY is in a severe downtrend, trading near 52-week lows and substantially underperforming the market. While this deep oversold condition can sometimes signal a potential rebound, it currently reflects persistent negative momentum and weak sentiment that requires a significant positive catalyst to reverse.
Fundamental Health: The company's fundamentals are concerning. The recent quarter showed a significant revenue decline, a return to net losses, and compressed margins. Financial health is weak, with elevated debt, poor interest coverage, and negative cash flows from operations, indicating difficulty in meeting its obligations.
Valuation & Risk: Valuation sends mixed signals; the negative P/E ratio confirms unprofitability, while the low Price/Sales ratio might attract value hunters. However, the extreme -69% maximum drawdown highlights an exceptionally high level of price risk, suggesting underlying fundamental issues are severe.
Recommendation: Given the combination of a strong downtrend, deteriorating fundamentals, weak financial health, and extreme price volatility, ARAY is not worth buying at this time. The stock is better suited for high-risk speculators awaiting a turnaround, not for most investors. A cautious "Avoid" or "Sell" stance is more appropriate until the company demonstrates clear signs of operational stabilization and a sustainable path back to profitability.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
ARAY未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, the 12-month outlook for ARAY is highly challenging.
Key Catalysts: The primary potential catalyst is a successful operational turnaround, which would require demonstrating a clear path to revenue stabilization, a return to profitability, and improved cash flow to address its weak financial health. The significant gap between the current price and the analyst target of $3.875 suggests that any positive news, such as a strategic review, a major contract win, or better-than-expected quarterly results, could trigger a sharp but speculative rebound from its deeply oversold condition.
Potential Risks: The risks are substantial and include continued revenue decline, an inability to service its debt, and further cash burn leading to liquidity concerns. The stock's extreme volatility and persistent downtrend indicate that these fundamental headwinds could easily push the share price lower, making any recovery fragile and unreliable.
Target Price Range: While the analyst target price sits at $3.875, achieving this would require a near-perfect execution of a turnaround. A more realistic 12-month target range is wide, from $0.50 to $2.00, reflecting the binary outcome between continued deterioration and a speculative rebound. The stock remains suitable only for high-risk speculators.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 20% | $3.75 - $4.0 | Deep oversold condition leads to reversal, speculative rebound to analyst targets on operational turnaround |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 50% | $0.7 - $1.2 | Continued challenges with weak fundamentals and negative momentum lead to sideways trading near current levels |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 30% | $0.45 - $0.7 | Further deterioration in fundamentals and liquidity concerns lead to additional price decline |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对ARAY未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$3.88左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资ARAY的利好利空
综合来看，ARAY具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- CEO insider purchase: CEO bought 20,000 shares, showing confidence in company outlook.
- Strategic university partnership: Partnership with UW-Madison to advance radiotherapy technology innovation.
- Cost-cutting initiative: $25 million cost-reduction plan boosted stock price by 5.7%.
- New equity incentive plan: Stockholders approved 2026 equity plan to retain key talent.
利空
- Recent stock price decline: Shares fell 28% last month amid weak revenue excitement.
- Ongoing business challenges: Weak quarter signals persistent operational and market hurdles.
- Transformation timing concerns: New CEO's turnaround plan may be too late for impact.
- Market skepticism: Little investor excitement around revenue prospects despite changes.
ARAY 技术面分析
ARAY has demonstrated severe underperformance with a substantial price decline over recent periods. The stock's 17.82% one-month drop and 53.11% three-month plunge significantly lag the broader market, as evidenced by its -57.84% relative strength. This underperformance indicates persistently negative momentum and weak investor sentiment.
Currently trading just 2.5% above its 52-week low of $0.81, ARAY sits near the extreme lower end of its yearly range. With the current price representing only 28% of the distance to its 52-week high of $2.95, the stock appears deeply oversold based on its yearly price parameters. This positioning suggests potential exhaustion of selling pressure but requires confirmation from fundamental catalysts.
Overall, ARAY exhibits extremely bearish characteristics with its position near 52-week lows and substantial recent declines substantially underperforming the market. The elevated beta of 1.067 indicates the stock has been more volatile than the market during this downtrend. The maximum drawdown of -69.14% further underscores the depth of the selling pressure experienced over the past year.
| 时间段 | ARAY涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.8% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -53.1% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -32.0% | +16.8% |
| 1y | -54.6% | +17.4% |
| ytd | -57.4% | +19.5% |
ARAY 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability ARAY's Q1 2026 revenue declined significantly to $93.9 million from $127.5 million in the prior quarter, resulting in a net loss of $21.7 million compared to a slim profit last quarter. The company's gross profit margin compressed from 30.6% to 28.3%, while operating margins turned negative (-12.0%) due to elevated interest expenses and weaker sales performance.
Financial Health The company maintains moderate liquidity with a current ratio of 1.62, though the quick ratio of 0.90 suggests limited short-term flexibility without inventory liquidation. Debt levels appear elevated with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.17 and weak interest coverage of 1.00, while negative cash flow ratios indicate current operations are not generating sufficient cash to service obligations.
Operational Efficiency Operational metrics show challenges with low asset turnover (0.27) and extended cash conversion cycle (167 days), primarily driven by high inventory days (143). Return on equity remains minimal at 1.4%, reflecting inefficient use of shareholder capital, though fixed asset turnover of 2.06 suggests reasonable utilization of property and equipment.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：ARAY是否被高估？
Valuation Level: Based on forward metrics, ARAY appears overvalued as reflected by its negative forward PE ratio of -27.51, indicating the company is not currently profitable. However, the PS ratio of 0.21 is quite low, suggesting investors are paying relatively little for each dollar of revenue. The PB ratio of 1.51 and EV/EBITDA of 22.53 suggest moderate to high valuation multiples given the lack of earnings.
Peer Comparison: Without specific industry average data available, a conclusive peer comparison cannot be made. However, the negative PE ratio and elevated EV/EBITDA suggest ARAY may be trading at a premium to profitable medical device companies. The low PS ratio might indicate more favorable valuation positioning relative to revenue-generating peers.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: With a beta of 1.067, ARAY exhibits volatility very close to that of the broader market; however, its risk profile is significantly elevated by an extreme one-year maximum drawdown of -69.14%. This severe price decline indicates substantial downside volatility and investor pessimism, suggesting the stock carries a high level of price risk despite its near-market beta.
Other Risks: A short interest of 3.09% is relatively low, indicating minimal speculative pressure from short sellers. However, the drastic drawdown could point to other unquantified risks, such as weak liquidity during sell-offs or fundamental concerns about the company's business model or competitive position.
常见问题
Bearish. The stock faces severe technical weakness (near 52-week lows with -53% 3-month decline), poor fundamentals (revenue drop to net losses and negative operating margins), and lacks near-term catalysts despite cost-cutting efforts. Only suitable for highly risk-tolerant speculators betting on a successful turnaround, as current data shows substantial operational and price risks.
Based on the data provided, ARAY appears overvalued. The negative forward PE ratio (-27.51) indicates a lack of profitability, and the elevated EV/EBITDA of 22.53 is a high multiple for a company with declining revenue and negative cash flow. Although the PS ratio (0.21) is low, this is overshadowed by significant fundamental weaknesses, including a recent swing to a net loss, compressed margins, and high debt. Compared to the broader medical device industry, which typically values profitable growth, ARAY's valuation seems stretched given its deteriorating financial health.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding ARAY, ordered by importance:
1. Fundamental Business Risk: The company faces severe revenue decline, negative operating margins, and an inability to generate sufficient cash from operations, raising existential concerns about its business model and competitive position. 2. Financial Solvency Risk: Elevated debt levels combined with weak interest coverage and negative cash flow ratios indicate a high risk of financial distress and an inability to comfortably service its debt obligations. 3. Severe Price/Momentum Risk: The stock exhibits extreme downside volatility, trading near its 52-week low after a -69.14% maximum drawdown, reflecting persistently negative investor sentiment and a lack of catalysts for recovery.
Based on the current financial trajectory, ARAY's forecast for 2026 is highly speculative and contingent on a successful operational turnaround. My target price range is a base case of $0.40 - $1.20 and a bull case of $2.50 - $4.00, reflecting the stark divergence between continued deterioration and a speculative recovery driven by new contracts or strategic action.
The key growth drivers are a halt to revenue decline, a clear path to profitability, and improved liquidity to manage its elevated debt. My main assumptions are that without significant positive catalysts, current trends of cash burn and weak sales will persist, but the high analyst targets price in a potential, albeit low-probability, rebound.
This forecast carries extreme uncertainty; the stock's fate is binary, balancing between potential delistment and a high-risk speculative surge, making it suitable only for investors who can tolerate a complete loss of capital.
Based on its extreme volatility and fundamental deterioration, ARAY is unsuitable for traditional long-term investment and should be considered a speculative, short-term trading opportunity only.
Long-term investors (3+ years) should avoid ARAY entirely due to its severe downtrend, negative profitability, and weak financial health, which pose significant risks to capital preservation. Medium-term investors (6 months - 3 years) should also steer clear, as there is no clear catalyst for a sustainable recovery. Short-term traders (under 6 months) might speculate on technical bounces given the oversold condition, but must use strict stop-losses due to the stock's history of severe drawdowns.
ARAY's high volatility, evidenced by its -69% maximum drawdown, makes it unsuitable for any holding period that cannot tolerate rapid, substantial losses. The extreme price risk fundamentally restricts its viability as a medium or long-term holding.