BPOP
BPOPPopular, Inc.
is a regional bank providing a range of banking and financial services, primarily operating across the United States. It is distinguished as a leading community-focused institution, particularly in its core market of Puerto Rico, demonstrating resilience through economic cycles.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：BPOP值得买吗？
Analysis of Popular, Inc. (BPOP)
Technical Analysis BPOP shows renewed momentum with a strong 10.5% gain over the past month, though it remains slightly negative over three months. Trading just 2.6% below its 52-week high, the stock appears technically overbought, suggesting limited near-term upside and potential for a pullback. Investors may prefer to wait for a better entry point rather than chasing the current rally.
Fundamentals & Valuation Fundamentally, BPOP exhibits solid revenue growth, improved profitability, and a healthy balance sheet with low debt. Its valuation looks reasonable, with a forward P/E of 9.4 and a compelling PEG ratio of 0.51, indicating potential undervaluation relative to growth expectations. These metrics present a favorable fundamental backdrop, though comparisons to industry peers are necessary for full context.
Risk Assessment Risks are moderate; the stock has a low beta but has experienced drawdowns exceeding 22% in the past year. As a regional bank, it remains sensitive to interest rate changes and economic cycles. The low short interest reflects limited bearish sentiment, but macro-driven volatility cannot be ruled out.
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Buy Recommendation
BPOP presents a compelling case based on sound fundamentals and attractive valuation metrics, particularly its low P/E and strong PEG ratio. While the recent price surge suggests waiting for a slight pullback to enter, the company’s profitability and financial health support a positive medium-term outlook. For investors comfortable with typical banking sector risks and seeking exposure to a well-managed regional bank, BPOP appears to be a worthy consideration at an appropriate entry point.
BPOP未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the comprehensive analysis for Popular, Inc. (BPOP), the 12-month outlook is cautiously optimistic. Key catalysts include the stock's compelling valuation, highlighted by a low forward P/E of 9.4 and a strong PEG ratio of 0.51, which suggests significant undervaluation relative to its earnings growth potential, alongside solid fundamentals and a healthy balance sheet. The primary risks are macroeconomic, specifically the stock's sensitivity to changes in interest rates and potential economic softening that could impact the regional banking sector, as well as the potential for a technical pullback after its recent strong run to near 52-week highs. With an analyst target price of approximately $143, the stock offers an attractive upside potential of over 13% from the current price, supporting a Buy recommendation for investors who can tolerate sector volatility.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 25% | $145.0 - $160.0 | Strong momentum continues with improved operational efficiency driving earnings beat and valuation re-rating |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 55% | $130.0 - $145.0 | Moderate growth continues with earnings meeting expectations and valuation multiples stabilizing near current levels |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 20% | $110.0 - $125.0 | Technical overbought condition leads to pullback amid macroeconomic headwinds affecting regional banking sector |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对BPOP未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$143.11左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资BPOP的利好利空
综合来看，BPOP具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Analyst optimism on earnings: Q3 2025 earnings are expected to show strong year-on-year revenue growth.
- Strong deposit and asset growth: Healthy deposit growth and improving asset quality are boosting earnings momentum.
- Institutional investor confidence: Burney Co. significantly increased its stake in the company by 134.3%.
- Improving net interest margins: Net interest margins have been widening, supporting book value growth.
利空
- Downgrade by research firm: Zacks Research downgraded the stock from strong-buy to hold rating.
- Potential valuation concerns: Some analysts are evaluating if the current price reflects future growth.
- Regional bank sector risks: As a regional bank, it faces economic and regulatory headwinds.
BPOP 技术面分析
BPOP has demonstrated strong recent momentum despite mixed performance over the past quarter.
The stock has posted a significant 10.53% gain over the past month, substantially outpacing the broader market's recent trend; however, its three-month performance remains slightly negative at -0.2%, indicating it has underperformed its benchmark by approximately 4.93% over this period. This suggests the stock's current rally is a recent phenomenon that is working to reverse previous underperformance. Currently trading at $126.02, BPOP is near the top of its 52-week range ($78.23 - $129.32), sitting just 2.6% below its high.
Given its proximity to the 52-week peak and the substantial rally over the last month, the stock appears to be in an overbought condition from a technical perspective, warranting caution for new positions.
| 时间段 | BPOP涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.5% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -0.2% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +22.1% | +16.8% |
| 1y | +36.6% | +17.4% |
| ytd | +39.6% | +19.5% |
BPOP 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability BPOP demonstrated solid revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue increasing to $1.16 billion from $1.11 billion in Q2. Net income also improved from $210 million to $231 million, while the net profit margin strengthened to 19.98%. These trends reflect effective revenue expansion and cost control, supporting improved bottom-line performance.
Financial Health The company maintains a low debt profile, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.23 and a modest total debt-to-capitalization of 18.6%. Operating cash flow per share of $2.87 and reasonable cash flow coverage ratios indicate sufficient liquidity to meet obligations, though the low current ratio suggests reliance on non-current assets for liquidity.
Operational Efficiency BPOP’s return on equity stands at 3.78%, supported by an asset turnover of 0.015. While ROE is modest, the company’s equity multiplier of 12.3 indicates significant financial leverage. Fixed asset turnover of 1.44 suggests adequate utilization of long-term assets, though overall operational efficiency could be enhanced given the low asset turnover ratio.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：BPOP是否被高估？
BPOP appears modestly undervalued based on its valuation multiples. With a trailing PE of 11.2 and forward PE of 9.4 trading below typical market averages, and a PEG ratio of 0.51 suggesting strong growth-adjusted value, the stock shows reasonable valuation levels. While the PB ratio of 1.38 and PS ratio of 2.96 reflect fair pricing for a financial institution, these metrics collectively indicate potential undervaluation.
Due to the unavailability of industry average data, a comprehensive peer comparison cannot be conducted. For a complete valuation assessment, comparative analysis against regional bank industry benchmarks for PE, PB, and PS ratios would be necessary to determine BPOP's relative positioning within its sector.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: BPOP exhibits a relatively low Beta of 0.685, indicating it tends to be less volatile than the broader market. However, its maximum drawdown of -22.63% over the past year highlights a material risk of capital depreciation during market downturns. This suggests the stock, while less volatile on average, can still experience significant price swings.
Other Risks: The low short interest of 2.39% signifies minimal pessimism or targeted speculative pressure from bearish investors. While this is a positive indicator, as a regional bank, the stock remains exposed to macroeconomic risks such as changes in interest rates and loan portfolio performance. Liquidity is generally adequate but can be influenced by broader financial sector sentiment.
常见问题
Neutral view: BPOP shows solid fundamentals but faces near-term technical headwinds.
Core reasons: 1) Strong revenue growth and attractive valuation multiples support upside potential, 2) Technical indicators suggest the stock is overbought near 52-week highs, 3) Mixed analyst sentiment with a recent downgrade offsets positive institutional buying.
Suitable for: Patient investors comfortable with financial sector volatility who can wait for potential pullbacks. Not ideal for short-term traders given current technical positioning.
Based on the provided data, BPOP appears to be modestly undervalued. Its valuation multiples, particularly a forward P/E of 9.4 and a compelling PEG ratio of 0.51, are attractive compared to general market averages, indicating strong growth-adjusted value. The P/B ratio of 1.38 and P/S ratio of 2.96 seem reasonable for a financial institution. The primary reason for this potential undervaluation is its solid profitability and earnings growth expectations, as evidenced by its improving net income and margin, which are not fully reflected in the current stock price.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding BPOP stock, ordered by importance:
1. Interest Rate & Macroeconomic Risk: As a regional bank, BPOP's performance is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, which can directly impact its net interest margin and the credit quality of its loan portfolio. 2. Price Correction Risk (Technical): The stock is currently trading near its 52-week high following a sharp recent rally, creating a technically overbought condition that increases its vulnerability to a near-term price correction or consolidation. 3. Operational Leverage Risk: The bank employs a high degree of financial leverage, as indicated by an equity multiplier of 12.3, which magnifies the impact of operational gains or losses on shareholder equity and can amplify risks during an economic downturn.
Based on current analyst projections and BPOP's fundamentals, the 2026 forecast is positive, though subject to economic conditions. Our base case target is $150-$155, with a bull case of $165-$170 if interest rates remain favorable. Key growth drivers include its attractive valuation, strong balance sheet, and effective cost management, while the main assumption is a stable, non-recessionary economic environment. This forecast is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and regional banking sector health, creating significant uncertainty.
Based on its moderate volatility profile and fundamentally sound valuation, BPOP is most suitable for a medium to long-term investment horizon.
* Long-term investors (3+ years): A buy-and-hold strategy is appropriate, allowing the stock's reasonable valuation (low P/E, strong PEG) and solid fundamentals to compound over time, weathering its potential ~22% drawdowns. * Medium-term investors (6 months - 3 years): A strategy of buying on dips is advisable, as the stock is currently near 52-week highs; patience for a better entry point can capitalize on its underlying value. * Short-term traders (under 6 months): This is less ideal; while recent momentum exists, the low beta suggests more subdued short-term price action, offering fewer trading opportunities compared to more volatile assets.
BPOP's low beta (0.685) indicates it is less volatile than the market, making it better suited for patience-oriented strategies rather than short-term trading, though its historical drawdowns necessitate a horizon that can endure periodic downturns.