CRDO
CRDOCredo Technology designs semiconductor chips and connectivity solutions for the high-speed data infrastructure market.
It is positioned as a crucial connectivity innovator, specializing in advanced signal integrity technology essential for data centers and AI systems.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：CRDO值得买吗？
Analysis of CRDO Stock
Technical Perspective CRDO shows weak near-term momentum, underperforming the market significantly over the past one and three months. Despite strong long-term returns from its low, the stock remains highly volatile and susceptible to broader market swings, currently trading well below its 52-week high. This suggests continued near-term pressure rather than a clear trend reversal.
Fundamental Strength CRDO exhibits impressive fundamentals, with robust revenue growth, expanding net profit margins above 30%, and excellent financial health characterized by minimal debt and strong liquidity. Its operational efficiency is solid, though its working capital-intensive model requires attention to cash conversion cycles.
Valuation Concerns Valuation metrics indicate CRDO is priced at a significant premium, with exceptionally high price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA ratios. While the forward P/E and PEG ratios appear more reasonable, the lack of industry comparables makes it difficult to judge whether this premium is justified.
Risk Assessment The primary risk is CRDO’s high volatility, with a beta over 2.6 and a history of sharp drawdowns. Low short interest reduces bearish pressure but may correlate with lower liquidity, adding to price instability during large trades.
Recommendation
Hold – Not a Buy at Present While CRDO’s fundamental growth and financial health are compelling, its steep valuation and high volatility pose substantial risks. Investors should wait for a more attractive entry point or clearer signs of momentum stabilization. The stock may appeal to growth-oriented investors with high risk tolerance, but current levels warrant caution rather than commitment.
CRDO未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is the 12-month outlook for CRDO:
12-Month Outlook for CRDO
The primary catalyst for CRDO over the next year is its exceptional fundamental strength, characterized by robust revenue growth and net profit margins above 30%, which could justify its premium valuation if execution remains strong. However, significant risks are present, primarily from its extreme volatility (beta > 2.6) and steep valuation multiples, making it highly susceptible to broader market downturns or any earnings disappointment. While the analyst consensus target price of $211.6 suggests substantial upside from the current $144.83, this bullish outlook is contingent on the company maintaining its high-growth trajectory without any stumbles. Given the current technical weakness and valuation concerns, a more cautious target range of $180-$220 seems appropriate, acknowledging the high-risk, high-reward nature of this growth stock.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 25% | $220.0 - $250.0 | Strong revenue growth continues, expanding profit margins drive earnings beats, and market sentiment improves despite high volatility |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 55% | $155.0 - $190.0 | Solid fundamental performance offsets valuation concerns, but high volatility limits upside potential |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 20% | $85.0 - $120.0 | Premium valuation unwinds sharply amid market volatility, despite strong fundamentals |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对CRDO未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$211.60左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资CRDO的利好利空
综合来看，CRDO具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Strong AI Growth Catalyst: Credo provides essential high-speed connectivity solutions for AI data centers.
- Significant Stock Price Appreciation: Stock has more than doubled this year and hit new all-time highs.
- High Retail and Analyst Interest: Retail interest surged 460% and Wall Street sees 29% upside potential.
- Positive Wall Street Coverage: Top analysts favor CRDO for its strong growth potential.
- Momentum Stock Characteristics: Exhibits strong momentum with recent 7.4% gain over four weeks.
利空
- Recent Price Volatility and Pullback: Stock crashed 13.4% on profit-taking, showing investor caution.
- Valuation Concerns After Rally: Substantial gains may lead to overvaluation and increased selling pressure.
- Profit-Taking Pressure: Investors are shunning buy recommendations to lock in recent profits.
- High Expectations Risk: Market's high growth expectations create room for disappointment.
CRDO 技术面分析
CRDO has delivered exceptional long-term returns from its 52-week low but currently exhibits weak momentum with recent declines underperforming the market.
The stock declined 6.06% over the past month and 3.05% over three months, significantly underperforming the broader market by 7.78% during this period. This underperformance aligns with its high beta of 2.63, indicating amplified volatility relative to market moves.
Currently trading at $144.83, CRDO sits approximately 32% below its 52-week high after experiencing a substantial 61.05% maximum drawdown. While the stock is closer to recent highs than lows, its elevated volatility and recent weakness suggest continued sensitivity to market conditions rather than clear overbought or oversold conditions.
| 时间段 | CRDO涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.1% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -3.0% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +69.4% | +16.8% |
| 1y | +109.0% | +17.4% |
| ytd | +104.2% | +19.5% |
CRDO 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability CRDO demonstrates strong revenue growth with a 20.2% sequential increase from Q1 to Q2 2026. Profitability metrics are robust, with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 67.5% and an expanding net profit margin reaching 30.8% in Q2. This indicates effective cost control and significant operating leverage as revenue scales.
Financial Health The company maintains exceptional financial health, evidenced by a minimal debt ratio of 0.9% and substantial liquidity with current and quick ratios exceeding 7.8. Strong cash generation is reflected in solid cash flow coverage ratios, positioning CRDO with a conservative balance sheet and significant financial flexibility.
Operational Efficiency CRDO shows solid operational efficiency with a healthy Return on Equity of 6.4% and a respectable asset turnover of 0.18. While the inventory turnover of 0.58 suggests moderate inventory management, the high cash conversion cycle of 171 days indicates the company operates with a working capital-intensive model that requires careful monitoring.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：CRDO是否被高估？
CRDO's valuation metrics suggest a premium pricing structure across multiple dimensions. The trailing PE ratio of 124.85 appears elevated, though the forward PE of 38.87 and PEG of 0.66 indicate more reasonable growth-adjusted expectations. However, concerningly high PB (20.10), PS (32.86), and EV/EBITDA (112.66) ratios collectively point to substantial overvaluation relative to the company's current financial fundamentals.
Without industry average data available for comparison, it's challenging to contextualize these multiples within CRDO's sector. The absence of peer benchmarks limits our ability to determine whether these elevated ratios reflect industry norms or company-specific premium pricing. Further analysis would require obtaining relevant industry comparables to assess CRDO's relative valuation positioning.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: CRDO exhibits exceptionally high volatility risk, evidenced by a beta of 2.633 which indicates the stock is approximately 2.6 times more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity to market movements is further confirmed by a severe one-year maximum drawdown of -61.05%, highlighting the potential for significant capital depreciation during downturns.
Other Risks: The stock's risk profile is mitigated by very low short interest of 0.87%, suggesting minimal speculative pressure from bearish investors. However, this low figure could also correlate with lower trading liquidity, potentially leading to wider bid-ask spreads and increased volatility on large order flows. Investors should remain cautious of these liquidity dynamics despite the absence of significant short-selling activity.
常见问题
Neutral. While CRDO has strong fundamentals with exceptional revenue growth and a healthy balance sheet, its premium valuation and high volatility create near-term risk. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, who can withstand potential price swings while betting on its AI-driven growth story.
Based on the provided data, CRDO appears to be overvalued. Its valuation multiples (PE of 124.85, PS of 32.86, PB of 20.10) are exceptionally high, indicating the stock price significantly outpaces its current earnings, sales, and book value. While the company exhibits strong profitability (30.8% net margin) and financial health, these fundamentals do not seem to fully justify the extreme premium. The lower PEG ratio (0.66) suggests the market is pricing in very high growth expectations, which carries considerable risk if not met.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding CRDO stock, ordered by importance:
1. Market Volatility Risk: The stock's exceptionally high beta of 2.63 makes it approximately 2.6 times more volatile than the market, exposing investors to the potential for severe price swings and significant capital depreciation, as evidenced by its 61.05% maximum drawdown. 2. Operational & Liquidity Risk: The company's high cash conversion cycle of 171 days indicates a working capital-intensive business model that requires substantial capital to be tied up in operations, which could strain liquidity if sales slow or financing conditions tighten. 3. Recent Performance & Momentum Risk: CRDO is exhibiting weak short-term momentum, having significantly underperformed the broader market over the past one and three months, which may signal a shift in investor sentiment or emerging company-specific challenges.
Based on a continuation of current trends, the 2026 forecast for CRDO is optimistic but carries high risk. My target price range is $190-$270, with the base case around $210 and a bull case approaching the upper end, contingent on flawless execution and sustained market momentum.
Key growth drivers include: 1) maintaining net profit margins above 30% through operating leverage, 2) continued 20%+ quarterly revenue growth by capturing market share in its niche, and 3) leveraging its debt-free balance sheet for strategic initiatives.
The main assumptions are that the company avoids any major earnings disappointments and that the broader market does not enter a significant downturn, to which the stock's high beta (>2.6) makes it acutely sensitive. This forecast is highly uncertain due to CRDO's premium valuation and extreme volatility, meaning actual performance could deviate substantially from these targets.
Based on CRDO’s extremely high volatility (beta > 2.6) and valuation concerns, it is not recommended as a long-term investment.
- Long-term investors (3+ years): Avoid—the severe volatility and elevated valuation multiples pose significant risk over time; better opportunities exist in more stable growth stocks. - Medium-term investors (6 months–3 years): Only suitable if actively monitored, as high beta means large swings; timing entry/exit is crucial given recent negative momentum. - Short-term traders (under 6 months): Potentially suitable for tactical, high-risk speculation, but strict stop-losses are essential due to the stock’s sharp drawdown history.
CRDO’s extreme volatility inherently shortens viable holding periods—long-term stability is unlikely.