CVX
CVXChevron is a leading integrated energy company within the oil and gas industry.
It is known globally for its massive scale, diversified operations spanning from production to refining, and its strategic investments in lower-carbon energy solutions.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：CVX值得买吗？
Based on a comprehensive analysis, Chevron (CVX) presents a mixed but ultimately favorable long-term investment case.
CVX exhibits strong underlying financial health, characterized by solid sequential revenue growth, improving profitability, and a conservative balance sheet with excellent debt management. However, the stock's valuation appears somewhat elevated relative to its modest near-term growth expectations, and its recent technical performance has lagged the broader market. The company's low volatility profile and hefty dividend payout are key defensive attributes.
Given its financial stability, commitment to shareholder returns, and defensive market posture, CVX is suitable for income-focused investors seeking exposure to the energy sector with lower relative risk. For investors with a long-term horizon who can tolerate sector-specific volatility, the current price offers a reasonable entry point to build a position in a high-quality, dividend-paying energy major.
Recommendation: BUY for long-term, income-oriented portfolios. Chevron's financial robustness and shareholder-friendly capital allocation provide a solid foundation. While not a deep value play, its defensive characteristics and stable dividend make it a worthwhile core holding for investors comfortable with the macro risks inherent in the energy sector. Accumulate on periods of market or oil price weakness for a better entry price.
CVX未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on a comprehensive analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Chevron (CVX):
12-Month Outlook for CVX:
Chevron's outlook is supported by key catalysts including its strong financial health, commitment to shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks, and strategic acquisitions like Hess Corporation that bolster long-term production growth. Potential risks over the next year primarily involve volatility in crude oil prices, broader economic uncertainty impacting energy demand, and potential regulatory headwinds. With an average analyst target price of approximately $172, the stock offers an attractive potential upside from the current price of $150, making it a favorable hold for investors seeking energy exposure with a defensive, income-oriented profile. Accumulation on market dips is advised to optimize entry points.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 25% | $185.0 - $200.0 | Strong oil price recovery and operational improvements drive earnings growth |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 55% | $160.0 - $175.0 | Moderate growth with stable dividend returns and balanced market conditions |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 20% | $125.0 - $140.0 | Oil price weakness and regulatory pressures impact profitability |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对CVX未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$172.33左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资CVX的利好利空
综合来看，CVX具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Strong Earnings Beat: Chevron reported a sizable earnings beat, causing a stock price jump.
- Raised Price Target: TD Cowen raised its price target to $160, citing the Hess deal.
- Institutional Buying: Keystone Financial purchased 54,000 shares, showing institutional confidence.
- Dividend Confidence: Wall Street analysts are confident in Chevron as a dividend-paying stock.
利空
- Venezuela Geopolitical Risk: A shipping crackdown in Venezuela poses a risk to operations.
- Oil Price Volatility: The stock remains sensitive to fluctuations in global oil prices.
- Hold Rating Maintained: Despite a raised target, TD Cowen maintains a Hold rating.
CVX 技术面分析
CVX has demonstrated modest positive momentum over the past month but remains in negative territory for the quarter, underperforming the broader market.
Over the short term, the stock has gained 1.0% in one month but declined 4.7% over three months; this 3-month performance represents a significant underperformance of -9.43% relative to the market. Its beta of 0.673 indicates lower volatility than the overall market, which has not shielded it from recent comparative weakness.
Currently trading at $150.02, CVX sits roughly in the middle of its 52-week range ($132.04 - $168.96), suggesting a neutral position. The stock is neither overbought nor oversold based purely on this range, though its 1-year maximum drawdown of -20.64% highlights the potential for volatility experienced in the past.
| 时间段 | CVX涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.0% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -4.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +2.6% | +16.8% |
| 1y | +9.0% | +17.4% |
| ytd | +7.0% | +19.5% |
CVX 基本面分析
Based on the provided Q3 2025 quarterly report and financial ratios for Chevron (CVX):
Revenue & Profitability CVX demonstrated strong sequential revenue growth from Q2 ($44.4B) to Q3 ($48.2B), reflecting improved top-line performance. Profitability also strengthened, with the net income ratio increasing from 5.6% to 7.3%, indicating better conversion of revenue into bottom-line earnings. The company maintains solid profitability fundamentals with an EBITDA margin of 24.0% in Q3.
Financial Health The company exhibits a conservative debt profile with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22 and a robust interest coverage ratio of 11.4x. Operating cash flow generation appears healthy at $5.13 per share, supporting the company's financial flexibility. CVX's current ratio of 1.17 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.
Operational Efficiency CVX's operational efficiency shows room for improvement, with a return on equity of 1.9% and an asset turnover of 0.15 for Q3 2025. The modest fixed asset turnover of 0.11 suggests potential underutilization of long-term assets. The company's high payout ratio of 95.6% indicates significant earnings distribution to shareholders.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：CVX是否被高估？
Based on CVX's valuation metrics, the stock appears reasonably valued to slightly overvalued. The forward PE of 19.9 is moderately high for an energy company, while the PB ratio of 1.6 suggests the stock is trading above its book value, which is common but not exceptionally cheap. Notably, the PEG ratio of 1.55, which factors in earnings growth, indicates the stock may be overvalued given its growth prospects, especially when viewed alongside an EV/EBITDA of 9.1, which is a standard but not particularly low multiple for the sector.
A direct peer comparison cannot be completed as industry average data is unavailable. To properly contextualize these metrics, a comparison against the average PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA ratios for the integrated oil and gas industry would be required. Without this benchmark, it is challenging to definitively state whether CVX trades at a premium or discount to its competitors, making the assessment reliant solely on the absolute levels of its valuation multiples.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk Analysis: CVX demonstrates moderate downside protection with its beta of 0.673, indicating it typically moves about 33% less than the broader market during both upswings and downturns. However, the stock's 1-year maximum drawdown of -20.64% reveals meaningful price erosion potential during sustained market stress, warranting consideration despite its lower beta profile.
Other Risk Factors: With a minimal short interest of just 2.0%, CVX faces limited speculative pressure or negative sentiment from short sellers. The primary risks remain sector-specific, including oil price volatility and regulatory shifts toward renewable energy, which could impact long-term fundamentals more significantly than current market positioning suggests.
常见问题
Bullish. CVX displays strong underlying fundamentals with sequential revenue and profitability growth, a healthy balance sheet, and a reliable dividend. While sensitive to oil price volatility, its low beta provides some defensive characteristics. This stock is suitable for income-focused and long-term investors seeking exposure to a stable energy major.
Based on the metrics provided, CVX appears slightly overvalued. Its valuation multiples, such as a forward P/E of 19.9 and a PEG ratio of 1.55, are moderately high, especially considering the PEG ratio implies the stock price is rich relative to its expected earnings growth. This overvaluation is not supported by exceptionally strong operational efficiency, as indicated by a modest Return on Equity of 1.9%. While the company has solid profitability and financial health, its current valuation seems to price in more optimism than its fundamentals and growth prospects justify.
Based on the provided information, the key risks of holding Chevron (CVX) are:
1. Industry and Regulatory Risk: The company faces significant long-term fundamental risks from sector-specific pressures, primarily volatile oil prices and the regulatory shift toward renewable energy. 2. Operational and Market Performance Risk: Despite a low beta suggesting lower volatility, CVX has demonstrated meaningful price erosion potential (a -20.64% maximum drawdown) and recent underperformance relative to the market, indicating operational or sentiment challenges not fully captured by its beta. 3. Capital Allocation and Reinvestment Risk: A very high payout ratio of 95.6% suggests most earnings are distributed to shareholders, which could constrain the capital available for crucial reinvestment in new projects or the energy transition.
Based on current analyst projections and CVX's strategic direction, the forecast for 2026 targets a base case price of $180-$190 and a bull case of up to $220. Key growth drivers include production growth from the Hess acquisition and a sustained commitment to shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. The primary assumptions are stable-to-moderate oil prices and successful integration of new assets. This forecast is highly sensitive to oil price volatility and global economic conditions, creating significant uncertainty.
Based on CVX's low volatility profile and stable dividend, it is best suited for long-term investment (3+ years). Long-term investors should adopt a buy-and-hold strategy to benefit from compounding dividends and weathering sector cycles, while medium-term investors (6 months-3 years) could consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk around oil price fluctuations. Short-term traders (under 6 months) will find its low beta of 0.67 limiting for significant gains, making it less ideal for active trading. CVX's lower volatility provides downside protection but also dampens short-term price appreciation potential, reinforcing its role as a long-term, income-generating holding rather than a speculative asset.