DELL
DELLDell is a global technology company that designs and manufactures computer hardware and related products.
It is a leading provider of personal computers and enterprise solutions, known for its efficient direct-to-consumer sales model and broad portfolio of IT infrastructure.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：DELL值得买吗？
Technical Analysis
DELL has shown resilience by more than doubling from its 52-week low, though it has recently lagged the broader market amid volatility. Trading at $129.24, the stock sits in a moderate position relative to its annual range, with neither overbought nor oversold signals. The high maximum drawdown confirms its volatile nature, but recent underperformance may present a potential entry point for investors comfortable with price swings.
Fundamental Analysis
Dell's revenue dipped last quarter, but profitability improved significantly through better cost controls and margin expansion. The company maintains a healthy debt profile but shows some liquidity constraints, offset by efficient working capital management. Operational metrics are mixed, with strong inventory turnover balancing weaker returns on equity, which are distorted by accounting factors.
Valuation & Peer Comparison
DELL appears undervalued, with a forward P/E of 11.3 and a PEG ratio of 0.74 indicating attractive earnings growth potential. Its price-to-sales ratio below 1.0 and reasonable EV/EBITDA further support this view. While direct peer data is unavailable, these multiples suggest DELL trades at a discount relative to typical hardware sector valuations.
Risk Assessment
The stock carries moderate volatility risk, mirrored by its beta above 1.0 and history of sharp drawdowns. However, low short interest and a large market cap provide some stability. Investors should note its dependence on hardware cycles, but overall risks seem manageable for a well-diversified portfolio.
Investment Recommendation
Buy. DELL offers compelling value with undervalued earnings growth potential and improved profitability, despite recent market underperformance. The company’s efficient operations and conservative debt strengthen its resilience in a volatile sector. For investors seeking exposure to a established tech hardware name at a reasonable price, DELL represents a worthwhile opportunity, provided they can tolerate moderate volatility.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
DELL未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, the 12-month outlook for DELL is positive, supported by its attractive valuation and operational improvements.
Key catalysts for outperformance include the execution of its margin expansion strategy, potential market share gains in the server and infrastructure segments from AI-driven demand, and a likely valuation re-rating as the market recognizes its earnings growth potential. Potential risks to monitor are its sensitivity to cyclical hardware spending, broader market volatility given its beta above 1.0, and any failure to sustain recent improvements in profitability if economic conditions weaken. With an analyst target price of approximately $163, the stock offers a significant potential upside from the current price of $129, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for the coming year.
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 关键假设 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 乐观情景 | 25% | $185.0 - $200.0 | Strong AI server demand drives revenue acceleration while margin expansion continues, leading to significant earnings beats and multiple expansion |
| 🟡 基准情景 | 55% | $150.0 - $165.0 | Moderate revenue growth with sustained margin improvements, meeting analyst expectations and justifying current undervaluation |
| 🔴 悲观情景 | 20% | $110.0 - $125.0 | Economic softening impacts hardware demand while competitive pressures compress margins, leading to earnings disappointments |
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对DELL未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$163.30左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资DELL的利好利空
综合来看，DELL具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Raised long-term growth forecasts: Dell increased its annual revenue and profit growth expectations significantly.
- Strong AI-driven momentum: Company positions AI infrastructure as a major future profit driver.
- Stock hitting 52-week high: Share price reached new peak, signaling strong investor confidence.
- Positive market sentiment: Stock rose 2% this week amid bullish analyst coverage.
利空
- Insider stock sales: Company insiders sold $2.2B worth of shares, potentially signaling caution.
- Competitive AI infrastructure market: Faces stiff competition from peers like APLD in the AI space.
- Valuation concerns at highs: Stock may be overbought after recent surge to 52-week high.
- Execution risk on AI bets: High growth expectations depend on successful AI infrastructure adoption.
DELL 技术面分析
DELL has demonstrated strong long-term appreciation but has faced recent pressure amid market volatility. The stock has more than doubled from its 52-week low despite recent weakness.
Over the past month, DELL gained 2.64% but remains down 1.81% over three months, underperforming the broader market by 6.54% during this period. This contrasts with its elevated beta of 1.109, indicating it has recently lagged despite typically being more volatile than the market.
Currently trading at $129.24, DELL sits approximately 57% above its 52-week low but 23% below its high, suggesting a moderate position within its annual range. The significant 42.31% maximum drawdown highlights the stock's volatility, with current levels showing neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions.
| 时间段 | DELL涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +2.6% |
| 3m | -1.8% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +9.1% | +16.8% |
| 1y | +12.2% | +17.4% |
| ytd | +12.9% | +19.5% |
DELL 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability Dell demonstrates inconsistent revenue performance with Q3 revenue declining sequentially from $29.8B to $27.0B, though profitability metrics improved significantly. The gross profit margin expanded from 18.3% to 21.2% quarter-over-quarter, driving net profit margin improvement from 3.9% to 5.7%. This suggests effective cost management despite revenue volatility.
Financial Health The company maintains a conservative debt position with a 35.7% debt ratio and strong interest coverage of 11.9x. However, liquidity metrics are concerning with current and quick ratios below 1.0, indicating potential working capital strain. The negative cash conversion cycle of -10.7 days demonstrates efficient working capital management, allowing Dell to fund operations through supplier financing.
Operational Efficiency Operating efficiency shows mixed signals with return on assets at a modest 1.8% but return on equity deeply negative at -59.1%, likely due to accounting treatment of equity. Asset turnover of 0.31 suggests moderate capital efficiency, while inventory turnover of 3.06 indicates effective inventory management in the hardware business.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：DELL是否被高估？
Valuation Level: DELL's trailing P/E of 17.3 appears reasonable, but the more relevant forward P/E of 11.3 and a PEG ratio of 0.74 suggest the stock is undervalued based on its earnings growth prospects. The negative P/B ratio is an accounting anomaly related to shareholder equity and should be disregarded, while the PS ratio below 1.0 and an EV/EBITDA of 10.3 further support an attractive valuation profile.
Peer Comparison: Without specific industry average data, a direct peer comparison cannot be performed. However, the forward P/E of 11.3 appears competitive for the technology hardware sector, suggesting DELL is likely trading at a reasonable multiple relative to its peers. The sub-1.0 PS ratio also indicates potential value compared to typical technology company valuations.
投资风险提示
DELL exhibits moderate volatility risk with a beta of 1.109, indicating its price tends to move slightly more than the broader market. The substantial 1-year maximum drawdown of -42.31%, however, highlights a significant potential for sharp price declines during adverse market conditions. This suggests investors should be prepared for above-average price fluctuations.
The stock's other risks appear relatively contained, with a low short interest of 2.61% suggesting minimal bearish speculation in the market. While specific liquidity metrics aren't provided here, DELL's large market capitalization generally implies good trading liquidity, though investors should monitor any concentration risks in its hardware-dependent business model.
常见问题
Bullish. Dell shows attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 11.3 and strong AI infrastructure momentum, complemented by robust analyst sentiment with significant upside to price targets. However, investors should be prepared for above-average volatility. Best suited for growth-oriented investors with a medium-term horizon who can tolerate the stock's higher beta.
Based on the provided data, DELL stock appears undervalued. The key metrics supporting this view are a compelling forward P/E of 11.3, a PEG ratio of 0.74 (indicating the price is low relative to earnings growth), and a PS ratio below 1.0. The undervaluation is primarily driven by strong earnings growth expectations, as signaled by the PEG ratio being well below 1, alongside improved profitability from effective cost management, despite some revenue volatility. Compared to typical technology hardware sector valuations, these multiples suggest an attractive entry point.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding DELL stock, ordered by importance:
1. Market Volatility Risk: The stock's high beta (1.109) and substantial maximum drawdown (-42.31%) indicate significant susceptibility to sharp price declines during broader market downturns. 2. Liquidity and Working Capital Risk: Despite a negative cash conversion cycle, current and quick ratios below 1.0 suggest potential strain in meeting short-term obligations, which could pressure operations. 3. Revenue Volatility Risk: The company exhibits inconsistent revenue performance, as evidenced by a sequential quarterly decline from $29.8B to $27.0B, indicating vulnerability to demand fluctuations in its hardware-dependent business. 4. Industry and Business Model Risk: Dependence on hardware sales exposes the company to intense competition, pricing pressures, and potential cyclical downturns in the personal computing and IT infrastructure markets.
Based on the current trajectory, DELL's 2026 forecast is optimistic, with a base case target price range of $175-$190 and a potential bull case of $220 or higher if AI-driven demand accelerates significantly. The key growth drivers are the strong execution of its margin expansion strategy, sustained market share gains in AI servers and infrastructure, and a valuation re-rating as its earnings potential is fully recognized. This forecast assumes continued enterprise IT spending resilience, successful capture of the AI infrastructure boom, and maintenance of improved profitability levels. However, this outlook is highly sensitive to cyclical hardware spending trends and broader economic conditions, creating significant uncertainty.
Based on DELL's characteristics, I recommend a medium to long-term investment horizon (1-3+ years) to capitalize on its fundamental value while managing volatility risks.
Long-term investors (3+ years) should focus on DELL's attractive valuation metrics (forward P/E 11.3, PEG 0.74) and hold through inevitable sector volatility. Medium-term investors (6 months-3 years) can target specific catalysts like quarterly earnings improvements but must monitor the -42% drawdown risk closely. Short-term traders (<6 months) face heightened risk given DELL's beta of 1.1 and should employ strict stop-losses due to its volatile nature.
DELL's above-market volatility and deep drawdowns necessitate a longer horizon to withstand price swings while its undervaluation thesis materializes. The stock requires patience as improving profitability and efficient operations may take quarters to fully reflect in the price.