QCOM

Technical Analysis

QCOM shows modest recent gains but has underperformed the broader market, indicating relative weakness. Trading in the upper-middle of its 52-week range with higher-than-market volatility, it appears neither overbought nor oversold currently. This suggests the stock has room for movement but comes with amplified price swings.

Fundamentals

Excluding an anomalous tax charge, QCOM's underlying operations are healthy with strong revenue growth and solid operating margins. Its financial position is robust, featuring high liquidity and moderate, manageable leverage. However, operational efficiency is mixed, with a lengthy cash conversion cycle that may warrant monitoring.

Valuation

QCOM presents a mixed valuation picture: its forward P/E is reasonable, but elevated trailing multiples and a high PEG ratio point to premium pricing. Compared to typical asset-light tech firms, its multiples are not excessive, leaning toward fair value when considering its growth trajectory.

Peer Comparison & Risk

As a leading semiconductor IP company, QCOM's valuation metrics are industry-typical, though direct peer comparison is needed for clarity. Key risks include market volatility and sector cyclicality, but low short interest reflects modest near-term pessimism.

💡 Investment Recommendation

Consider Buying. QCOM's strong underlying profitability, healthy balance sheet, and reasonable forward valuation support a positive outlook. While volatility and operational inefficiencies are concerns, its market position and growth potential justify consideration for growth-oriented portfolios. Monitor semiconductor cycle trends and inventory levels closely.

RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景

Based on the comprehensive analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Qualcomm (QCOM):

Key Catalysts: The primary driver for QCOM will be the continued execution of its growth strategy in premium and high-tier Android smartphones, coupled with the expanding adoption of its technology in automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) segments. A reasonable forward P/E suggests room for multiple expansion if it can deliver on its growth trajectory.

Potential Risks: The stock's higher-than-market volatility and exposure to semiconductor sector cyclicality are key risks. Investors should closely monitor inventory levels and broader consumer electronics demand, as any slowdown could pressure earnings. The lengthy cash conversion cycle also indicates potential operational inefficiencies that could impact cash flow.

Target Price: The consensus analyst target price of $193.40 implies an approximate 11% upside from the current price. This aligns with a view of fair value given the company's healthy fundamentals and growth prospects, suggesting a positive but measured 12-month return.

华尔街共识

大多数华尔街分析师对QCOM未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。

综合来看，QCOM具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。

QCOM has demonstrated modest positive momentum over recent periods, though this performance has notably lagged the broader market.

The stock has posted gains over both the 1-month (6.42%) and 3-month (3.62%) periods, indicating recent positive price action. However, its relative strength of -0.78% signals it has slightly underperformed its market benchmark over the last three months.

Currently trading at $174.77, QCOM sits approximately 45% above its 52-week low but remains about 15% below its 52-week high, positioning it in the upper-middle portion of its annual range. Given its beta above 1.0 and a significant recent maximum drawdown, the stock has demonstrated higher volatility than the market, suggesting it is not in an extreme overbought or oversold condition.

Revenue & Profitability: QCOM delivered strong revenue growth, increasing from $10.4 billion in Q3 to $11.3 billion in Q4 2025. However, a substantial income tax expense of $6.1 billion in Q4 resulted in a net loss of $3.1 billion (-27.7% net margin), sharply contrasting with the profitable $2.7 billion net income (25.7% margin) in the prior quarter. Excluding this anomalous tax charge, underlying operating profitability remained solid with a 25.9% operating margin.

Financial Health: The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a robust current ratio of 2.82 and quick ratio of 2.10. QCOM demonstrates moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70 and healthy interest coverage of 17.2x, though cash flow metrics appear unavailable or zero in the current data. The debt ratio of 29.5% indicates a conservative capital structure.

Operational Efficiency: Operational metrics show mixed efficiency with a cash conversion cycle of 101 days, reflecting extended inventory days outstanding at 117 days. Asset turnover remains modest at 0.22, while the negative return on equity of -14.7% is entirely attributable to the Q4 tax-related net loss. Fixed asset turnover of 2.40 indicates reasonable utilization of property and equipment.

Valuation Level: QCOM appears reasonably valued based on its forward P/E of 14.1, which suggests moderate expectations, though its elevated trailing P/E of 34.8 and high PB ratio of 8.9 indicate premium pricing relative to current earnings and book value. The PEG ratio of 2.86 signals potential overvaluation when factoring in growth expectations, while the PS ratio of 4.3 and EV/EBITDA of 13.8 reflect a premium but not excessive multiple for a technology firm. Overall, the stock shows mixed signals but leans toward fair value given its forward earnings outlook.

Peer Comparison: Without specific industry averages, a precise peer comparison cannot be conducted; however, QCOM's metrics are typical for a leading semiconductor company with strong intellectual property. The forward P/E of 14.1 is likely competitive within the sector, while the high PB and PS ratios are consistent with asset-light, royalty-driven business models. Investors should benchmark these ratios against semiconductor peers for a clearer relative valuation assessment.

Volatility Risk: QCOM's beta of 1.214 indicates it is moderately more volatile than the broader market, suggesting amplified movements in both directions. This is corroborated by its significant one-year maximum drawdown of -28.73%, highlighting a substantial potential for loss during market downturns. Investors should be prepared for above-average price swings.

Other Risks: The stock's modest short interest of 3.58% suggests limited speculative pressure or widespread pessimistic bets against it, which is a positive signal. However, while short interest is low, investors should monitor broader sector-specific risks, such as cyclical demand for semiconductors and intense competitive pressures, which could impact performance.