SRAD

Based on the provided analysis, Sportradar (SRAD) presents a high-risk, high-potential profile that requires careful consideration.

Technical & Fundamental Assessment Technically, SRAD is showing tentative signs of recovery after a severe downturn, but its exceptionally high beta of 2.0 means it remains a highly volatile instrument. Fundamentally, the company is at a challenging inflection point; while its balance sheet is strong with minimal debt, its recent quarterly performance revealed declining revenue and a sharp contraction in profitability. Operational efficiency metrics are weak, indicating difficulty in effectively leveraging its assets.

Valuation & Risk Outlook The valuation is difficult to pin down without direct peer comparisons, but a forward P/E and a PEG ratio below 1.0 suggest the market may already be pricing in the recent setbacks, offering potential value if the company can execute a turnaround. The predominant risk is its extreme volatility, which demands a strong stomach and a long-term perspective from investors.

Buy Recommendation SRAD is a speculative buy only for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon. The stock's deep drawdown and reasonable forward valuation create a potential opportunity, but this is heavily contingent on the company reversing its recent operational declines. Investors must be prepared to withstand significant price swings and have conviction in management's ability to restore growth and profitability. This is not a suitable investment for those seeking stability or with a low risk tolerance.

RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景

Based on the analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Sportradar (SRAD):

12-Month Outlook for SRAD

The primary catalyst for SRAD over the next year will be its ability to demonstrate a clear reversal of its recent operational declines, with investors keenly watching for a return to revenue growth and improved profitability in upcoming earnings reports. While its high volatility presents a significant risk, making the stock susceptible to sharp swings on both macroeconomic news and company-specific updates, its current valuation appears to have priced in recent setbacks. Given the analyst target of approximately $33.49, the stock offers substantial upside potential from its current price near $23, but achieving this is heavily contingent on successful execution of a operational turnaround by management.

华尔街共识

大多数华尔街分析师对SRAD未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。

综合来看，SRAD具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。

SRAD has demonstrated significant volatility with mixed performance, showing recent recovery amid substantial longer-term weakness. The stock's high beta of 2.026 indicates it moves with approximately double the market's volatility.

Short-term performance shows a notable 7.39% rebound over the past month, though this follows a punishing three-month decline of -23.17%. SRAD has significantly underperformed the market by -27.57% over this period, reflecting elevated risk exposure.

Currently trading at $23.11, SRAD sits approximately 37% above its 52-week low but still 28% below its yearly high, positioning it in the lower-mid range of its annual spectrum. While not severely oversold, the substantial -33.6% drawdown suggests meaningful recovery potential remains.

Revenue & Profitability: SRAD's Q3 2025 revenue of €292 million represents a sequential decline from Q2's €318 million. Profitability margins deteriorated significantly, with the net income ratio falling to 7.7% from 15.5% in the prior quarter, primarily driven by a lower gross profit margin and a sizable other expenses charge impacting operating income.

Financial Health: The company maintains a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage, evidenced by a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.055 from the Q2 report. However, the interest coverage ratio of 1.33 is weak, indicating that operating earnings are just sufficient to cover interest expenses, presenting a potential vulnerability despite the low absolute debt level.

Operational Efficiency: Operational efficiency appears challenged, with a low return on equity of 5.2% and an asset turnover of 0.13 from the Q2 period, suggesting difficulty in generating profits and sales from its asset base. The negative cash conversion cycle is a positive working capital management sign, but overall returns on capital employed remain modest.

Valuation Level: Sportradar's current valuation ratios present a mixed picture. The stock appears richly valued based on traditional metrics, with elevated TTM P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios. However, the forward P/E shows significant improvement, and the PEG ratio below 1.0 suggests the stock may be reasonably valued or even undervalued when considering its earnings growth prospects.

Due to the absence of industry average data, a direct peer comparison cannot be conducted. This lack of benchmark information makes it challenging to contextualize these valuation metrics within the competitive landscape. Investors would need sector-specific comparative data to properly assess Sportradar's relative valuation position.

Volatility Risk: The stock exhibits extremely high market sensitivity with a beta of 2.026, implying it is roughly twice as volatile as the broader market. This is corroborated by a significant 1-year maximum drawdown of -33.6%, indicating substantial price erosion during downturns. Investors must be prepared for amplified price swings relative to the overall market.

Other Risks: The short interest of 5.6% is moderate, suggesting a degree of skepticism among bearish traders without presenting an imminent short-squeeze threat. While this specific figure does not directly indicate major liquidity concerns, high beta stocks often face increased volatility during rapid trading, potentially impacting execution prices. The primary risk remains its elevated volatility profile rather than immediate pressure from short sellers.