CRDO
CRDOCredo Technology designs and sells high-speed connectivity solutions for the semiconductor industry.
It is a key innovator providing critical energy-efficient chips that enable data movement in hyperscale data centers and AI infrastructure.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：CRDO值得买吗？
Comprehensive Analysis of CRDO Stock
Technical Analysis: CRDO is exhibiting significant weakness, with notable price declines over recent months and severe underperformance against the broader market. Trading near the upper end of its 52-week range despite recent drops, the stock appears overbought. Its extremely high beta indicates it is likely to remain exceptionally volatile, posing challenges for risk-averse investors.
Fundamentals: The company shows impressive revenue growth and outstanding profitability, supported by a very strong balance sheet with minimal debt and ample liquidity. However, operational efficiency is a concern, as a cash conversion cycle of 171 days suggests potential inventory management issues that could affect cash flow.
Valuation: CRDO's valuation metrics are mixed, with high P/E and P/B ratios indicating a premium price relative to current earnings and book value. While the PEG ratio suggests reasonable valuation based on growth expectations, the extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio signals that the stock is priced optimistically compared to its cash flow generation.
Risk: The primary risk is extreme volatility, with a beta over 2.6 and a history of sharp drawdowns, making the stock unsuitable for conservative portfolios. Although short interest is low, the lack of bearish sentiment does not fully offset the inherent price instability and liquidity concerns.
Investment Recommendation
Based on the analysis, CRDO is not recommended for purchase at this time. While fundamentals are strong, the stock's extreme volatility, overbought technical position, and rich valuation create significant downside risk. Investors should wait for a more attractive entry point or clearer signs of improved operational efficiency and price stability. This assessment is for reference only and not investment advice.
CRDO未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for CRDO is one of high-risk, high-reward potential, heavily dependent on market sentiment.
Key Catalysts: The primary positive catalyst is the company's fundamentally strong profile, characterized by impressive revenue growth, outstanding profitability, and a robust balance sheet. If the company can demonstrate improved operational efficiency by shortening its cash conversion cycle, it could significantly boost investor confidence and justify its premium valuation.
Potential Risks: The most significant risk is the stock's extreme volatility (beta > 2.6), which makes it highly susceptible to broad market swings and sharp drawdowns. Additional risks include its rich valuation metrics (high P/E, EV/EBITDA) and operational inefficiencies, which could lead to underperformance if growth expectations are not met.
Target Price Range: While the analyst target price of $211.6 suggests substantial upside, the technical weakness and high volatility indicate a wide potential range. A more probable 12-month target range is $130 to $215, reflecting the high-risk binary outcome where the stock could either correct sharply or rally strongly on positive news.
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对CRDO未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资CRDO的利好利空
综合来看，CRDO具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q2 revenue surged 272.1% year-over-year on strong AI demand.
- Strong Profitability: Reported GAAP net income of $82.6M and positive non-GAAP EPS.
- Optimistic Analyst Outlook: Wall Street analysts project a 29.19% upside potential for the stock.
- AI Connectivity Leadership: Positioned as a key 'picks-and-shovels' provider for AI infrastructure.
- Robust Momentum: Stock has more than doubled this year and hit new all-time highs.
利空
- Profit-Taking Pressure: Stock recently crashed 13.4% as investors shunned buy recommendations.
- Valuation Concerns: Rapid price increase raises questions about being overbought and sustainability.
- Market Volatility Risk: High retail interest surged 460%, increasing susceptibility to sentiment shifts.
- Competitive Semiconductor Sector: Operates in a highly competitive industry with rapid technological changes.
CRDO 技术面分析
Overall Assessment: CRDO has demonstrated extreme volatility over the past year, experiencing significant price appreciation from its low but facing considerable recent pressure with substantial underperformance against the broader market over the last quarter.
Short-term Performance: The stock has declined over both one and three-month periods, with a more pronounced 7.44% drop in the latter timeframe. More critically, its relative strength shows a significant 11.84% underperformance compared to the market over the past three months, indicating notable weakness.
Current Position: Trading at $150.19, CRDO is positioned in the upper portion of its 52-week range ($29.09 - $213.80), well above the midpoint and closer to annual highs. Given this elevated position and the stock's exceptionally high beta of 2.633, suggesting extreme volatility, it appears to be in an overbought territory despite recent declines.
| 时间段 | CRDO涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|
CRDO 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability: CRDO demonstrates strong growth with quarterly revenue increasing from $223 million to $268 million sequentially. The company exhibits exceptional profitability metrics, maintaining a robust gross profit margin near 68% and achieving a net income margin over 30%, which improved slightly from the prior quarter indicating operational leverage.
Financial Health: The company's financial position is exceptionally strong, characterized by a minimal debt ratio of 0.9% and substantial liquidity with a current ratio of 8.86. CRDO operates with no long-term debt and generates healthy operating cash flow, underscoring a very low-risk balance sheet.
Operational Efficiency: CRDO delivers solid returns with a Return on Equity of 6.4% and Return on Assets of 5.7%. However, operational efficiency shows some strain with a high cash conversion cycle of 171 days, primarily due to elevated days of inventory outstanding at 155 days, which suggests potential working capital management challenges.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：CRDO是否被高估？
CRDO's valuation metrics present a mixed picture. With a trailing PE of 129.47 and forward PE of 40.31, the stock appears richly valued on an earnings basis, particularly given its elevated PB ratio of 20.85 and PS ratio of 34.08. However, the PEG ratio of 0.66 suggests the stock may be reasonably valued relative to its expected earnings growth, though the exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 116.96 indicates substantial premium relative to current operational cash flows.
Without industry average data for comparison, it's challenging to contextualize these metrics against sector norms. The analysis would benefit significantly from benchmarking against peer valuation multiples to determine whether CRDO's premium reflects superior growth prospects or sector-typical characteristics versus outright overvaluation.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: CRDO exhibits extremely high volatility, demonstrated by an exceptionally elevated Beta of 2.633, suggesting it is approximately 2.6 times more volatile than the broader market. This is corroborated by a severe 1-year maximum drawdown of -61.05%, indicating substantial capital erosion potential during market downturns and a high-risk profile for investors seeking stable returns.
Other Risks: While the low short interest of 0.87% implies minimal bearish sentiment from short sellers, this potentially masks other underlying risks. However, such a low figure also warrants caution and further investigation to ensure market liquidity is sufficient to absorb normal trading volume without significant price impact.
常见问题
Based on the analysis, I maintain a neutral outlook on CRDO. Its exceptional revenue growth and strong profitability are bullish, but these are tempered by an extremely rich valuation and high volatility, suggesting the stock is pricing in significant future success. This stock may suit investors with a high-risk tolerance who are bullish on long-term AI infrastructure trends, but it presents substantial risk for those seeking stability.
Based on the provided data, CRDO appears slightly undervalued, primarily driven by its growth potential. The key valuation metrics are very high (PE of 129, PS of 34), suggesting a premium valuation. However, the PEG ratio of 0.66 (below 1.0) indicates the stock is reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth expectations. This valuation is supported by the company's exceptional fundamentals, including strong revenue growth, outstanding profitability (30% net margin), and a debt-free balance sheet, justifying its premium multiples versus the market.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding CRDO stock, ordered by importance:
1. Extreme Market Volatility: The stock's exceptionally high Beta of 2.633 indicates it is prone to severe price swings, making it highly sensitive to broader market downturns as evidenced by its 61% maximum drawdown. 2. Potential Overvaluation and Technical Weakness: Trading near its 52-week high with recent significant underperformance against the market suggests the stock may be in overbought territory, increasing its vulnerability to a price correction. 3. Operational Inefficiency Risk: A cash conversion cycle of 171 days, driven by very high inventory levels (155 days), points to potential working capital management challenges that could strain liquidity if sales slow. 4. Low Short Interest Signaling Reduced Liquidity: While minimal bearish sentiment, the extremely low short interest of 0.87% could indicate thinner market liquidity, potentially leading to larger price impacts during trades.
Based on the provided analysis, here is a forecast for CRDO stock through 2026.
Our base case target for 2026 is a range of $240-$280, with a bull case pushing towards $330 if the company successfully accelerates its growth trajectory. The key growth drivers are its exceptional profitability (30%+ net margin), a debt-free balance sheet providing strategic flexibility, and the potential to improve operational efficiency by reducing its high cash conversion cycle.
These projections assume that CRDO can maintain its strong revenue growth and premium margins while successfully addressing its inventory management challenges. It is critical to note the high uncertainty of this forecast, as the stock's extreme volatility (beta > 2.6) makes it highly susceptible to sharp swings based on market sentiment and the company's ability to meet growth expectations.