FCX
FCXFreeport-McMoRan is a leading global miner primarily focused on producing copper.
It is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, operating significant assets in the Americas with a focus on large-scale, long-life deposits.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：FCX值得买吗？
Comprehensive Analysis of FCX
Technical Analysis: FCX shows impressive momentum, having surged over 27% in the past month and approaching its 52-week high. However, its high beta (1.484) and proximity to resistance suggest potential volatility and a short-term pullback risk, which investors should note carefully given its past volatility and notable drawdown history.
Fundamentals: Despite a recent quarterly revenue dip and modest ROE/ROCE, FCX maintains strong liquidity and manageable debt with a solid interest-coverage ratio. Commodity price fluctuations pose margin pressure, but healthy EBITDA margins and financial stability provide a reasonable operational buffer.
Valuation: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.6 and a PEG ratio below 1, indicating reasonable pricing relative to growth expectations. While some absolute multiples appear elevated, the PEG ratio suggests FCX is not overvalued if earnings growth materializes as anticipated.
Risk: FCX carries high volatility risk (beta 1.484) paired with a history of significant drawdowns (-32% over one year), making it sensitive to market and commodity cycles. That said, low short interest points to limited bearish sentiment currently.
Recommendation
FCX offers compelling momentum supported by solid financial health and reasonable valuation relative to growth potential. While near-term volatility and commodity risks warrant caution, the stock’s strong liquidity, manageable debt, and positive PEG ratio suggest upside if sector conditions remain favorable. Therefore, for investors comfortable with cyclical exposure, FCX appears to be a buy on strategic pullbacks.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
FCX未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX):
Over the next 12 months, the primary catalysts for FCX are expected to be sustained strength in copper prices, driven by global demand for electrification and green energy infrastructure, coupled with the company's solid operational performance and healthy liquidity. The key risks remain its high sensitivity to commodity price swings (beta of 1.48) and its history of significant drawdowns, which could lead to substantial volatility if macroeconomic conditions weaken or the global growth outlook deteriorates. While the current stock price is slightly above the average analyst target of $50.32, its PEG ratio below 1 suggests room for growth, making a target price range of $48 to $58 plausible, contingent on stable to improving copper market dynamics.
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对FCX未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资FCX的利好利空
综合来看，FCX具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- Copper Price Rally Forecast: Analysts predict copper price rally continuing into 2026 due to tight supply.
- Supply Constraints Support Prices: Grasberg mine incident restricts copper production, lending strength to metal prices.
- Analyst Buy Ratings: FCX received additional buy ratings from analysts despite recent challenges.
- Commodity Price Strength: Rising copper and aluminum prices benefit mining operations and revenue.
利空
- Grasberg Mine Production Delay: Indonesian mine accident delays production until at least 2027.
- Revised Sales Guidance: Company revised downward its full-year and 2026 sales forecasts.
- Legal Class Action Risk: Securities fraud class action pending with January 2026 deadline.
- Recent Stock Underperformance: Stock trailed S&P 500 amid mining disaster and production issues.
FCX 技术面分析
FCX has delivered exceptional returns with strong momentum, recently approaching its 52-week high following a volatile year. The stock's performance reflects significant recovery from its maximum drawdown, buoyed by favorable sector conditions.
The stock has demonstrated explosive short-term momentum, surging over 27% in the past month and nearly 15% over three months, significantly outperforming the market by more than 10 percentage points. This robust performance, combined with a beta of 1.484, indicates high volatility but substantial upward movement relative to broader market trends.
Currently trading at $51.92, FCX sits just 0.7% below its 52-week high of $52.29, positioning it in technically overbought territory after such a sharp rally. While this suggests strong bullish sentiment, the proximity to resistance warrants caution given the stock's historical volatility and substantial drawdown potential.
| 时间段 | FCX涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
|---|
FCX 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability FCX's Q3 2025 revenue declined to $6.97 billion from Q2's $7.58 billion, reflecting softer top-line performance. Profitability metrics also weakened sequentially, with net profit margin dropping from 10.18% to 9.67% despite maintaining a solid operating margin of 28.06%. The company faces margin pressure from commodity price volatility, though its EBITDA margin of 38% remains relatively healthy.
Financial Health The company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 2.45 and substantial cash coverage at 0.82 cash ratio. Debt levels appear manageable with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50 and strong interest coverage of 18.3x. However, the cash flow to debt ratio of 0.18 suggests modest free cash flow generation relative to outstanding obligations.
Operational Efficiency FCX demonstrates modest operational efficiency with ROE of 3.61% and ROCE of 3.81%, though both metrics appear relatively low for the industry. Asset utilization is challenged with asset turnover of 0.12 and fixed asset turnover of 0.17, indicating capital-intensive operations. The extended cash conversion cycle of 72 days reflects significant working capital requirements, particularly from high inventory days outstanding.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：FCX是否被高估？
FCX's valuation presents a mixed picture. Based on a forward P/E of 22.6, the stock appears reasonably valued, particularly considering the strong growth signal from a PEG ratio below 1.0 (0.93), which suggests the share price is not overextended relative to its earnings growth trajectory. However, elevated absolute multiples such as the high trailing P/E and a PB ratio near 4.0 indicate a premium valuation that prices in significant future growth expectations.
Without specific industry average data for a direct peer comparison, the valuation must be assessed on its intrinsic merits. The forward-looking metrics (Forward P/E and PEG) are positive indicators of value relative to growth potential. Ultimately, the attractiveness of these multiples is entirely contingent on how they stack against the broader metals and mining sector averages once that data is available.
投资风险提示
FCX exhibits significant volatility risk, evidenced by its high beta of 1.484, indicating it is substantially more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity to market swings is corroborated by its substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -32.23%, highlighting the potential for considerable capital erosion during downturns.
The stock's other risk factors appear relatively contained at present. With a very low short interest of just 1.74%, there is minimal speculative pressure or anticipation of a price decline from short sellers. However, as a commodity producer, FCX remains inherently exposed to risks tied to copper price fluctuations and global economic demand cycles.
常见问题
Bullish – FCX is worth considering for investors comfortable with volatility and bullish on copper. Key reasons include strong exposure to favorable copper price forecasts, positive analyst sentiment with upside price targets, and solid financial health metrics. This stock is best suited for cyclical investors and those with a higher risk tolerance, given its commodity-linked volatility and operational risks.
Based on the provided metrics, FCX appears reasonably valued to slightly undervalued. While its trailing P/E of 36.3 is high, the more relevant forward P/E of 22.6 and a PEG ratio of 0.93 (below 1.0) indicate the price is potentially attractive relative to its earnings growth expectations. The premium P/B ratio of 4.0 reflects the market's pricing of its asset base and future prospects. The primary reason for this assessment is the strong signal from the PEG ratio, suggesting the stock is not overvalued when its growth potential is factored in, despite recent quarterly pressures on revenue and margins.
Of course. As a risk management analyst, here is an objective assessment of the key risks of holding FCX stock, ordered by importance.
Key Risks of Holding FCX
1. Commodity Price and Market Volatility Risk: The stock's high beta (1.484) and significant historical drawdown (-32.23%) expose investors to severe price swings, heavily driven by volatile copper prices and global macroeconomic sentiment, rather than company-specific performance. 2. Operational and Margin Pressure Risk: Sequential declines in revenue and net profit margin, coupled with low asset turnover ratios, highlight sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity demand and inherent inefficiencies in its capital-intensive mining operations. 3. Economic Cycle and Demand Risk: As a major copper producer, FCX's financial health is directly tied to global industrial growth, making it highly vulnerable to economic downturns that reduce demand from key sectors like construction and manufacturing. 4. Financial Flexibility and Cash Flow Risk: While leverage is moderate (Debt/Equity of 0.50), a relatively low cash flow-to-debt ratio (0.18) indicates limited free cash flow generation to service debt, fund new projects, or return capital to shareholders, especially during a commodity price downturn.
Based on the provided data, my forecast for FCX stock through 2026 is as follows.
My base-case target price for 2026 is $55 - $65, with a bull-case scenario reaching $70+, driven by sustained demand for copper from the global energy transition and disciplined operational execution. The primary assumptions are that copper prices remain structurally strong and FCX maintains its current operational and financial discipline without major project delays. However, this forecast carries significant uncertainty, as FCX's high correlation to commodity prices means any deterioration in the global economic outlook or a slowdown in electrification investments could substantially pressure the stock.