KNX

Comprehensive Analysis of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX)

Technical Analysis KNX demonstrates strong bullish momentum, significantly outperforming the market with a 36% gain over three months. However, its high beta of 1.17 indicates above-average volatility, suggesting sharper price swings. The stock is trading closer to its 52-week high but may be approaching overbought levels after recent rapid appreciation.

Fundamentals Revenue growth from $1.86B to $1.93B is positive, but profitability has weakened considerably with net margins falling to just 0.4%. While the company maintains a healthy debt profile with low leverage, weak cash flow coverage and poor returns on equity (0.1%) highlight operational inefficiencies. The high tax rate further pressures earnings despite top-line growth.

Valuation KNX appears expensive based on its trailing P/E of 60.9, though the forward P/E of 26.4 suggests strong earnings growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 0.57 indicates potential undervaluation relative to growth prospects, while reasonable price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios provide some comfort. Lack of peer data makes relative valuation challenging.

Risk Assessment The primary risk is volatility, with KNX's beta of 1.17 and maximum drawdown of -34.86% indicating higher sensitivity to market movements. Low short interest reduces squeeze risk, but operational weaknesses could amplify downside if economic conditions deteriorate.

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Investment Recommendation KNX presents a growth story supported by strong technical momentum and reasonable valuation relative to future earnings potential. However, current weak profitability and high volatility warrant caution. For investors comfortable with transportation sector cyclicality and seeking growth exposure, KNX offers attractive momentum, but should be sized appropriately given its risk profile. Consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk near current levels.

*This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX):

Catalysts: The primary positive catalyst is the expectation of significant earnings growth, as reflected in the more reasonable forward P/E of 26.4. Continued operational execution and potential stabilization in the freight market could help the stock grow into its valuation and justify its recent strong technical momentum.

Risks: The key risks are the stock's high volatility (beta of 1.17) and its current weak operational profitability, with net margins of just 0.4%. A deterioration in economic conditions could sharply highlight these fundamental weaknesses and lead to a significant drawdown.

Target Price: With the current price at $53.57, the consensus analyst target price of approximately $56.37 suggests modest upside potential of around 5% over the next 12 months. This reflects a balanced view of the growth potential against the existing operational and valuation headwinds.

华尔街共识

大多数华尔街分析师对KNX未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。

综合来看，KNX具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。

KNX has delivered exceptional price performance, significantly outpacing the broader market over recent months despite its higher volatility profile. The stock's strong upward momentum reflects substantial investor optimism, though its elevated beta indicates more pronounced price swings compared to the overall market.

Over the past three months, KNX surged 36.27%, dramatically outperforming the market by 31.87%, with a sharp 21.05% gain in the most recent month alone. This accelerated momentum suggests growing bullish sentiment, although the stock's high beta of 1.171 implies these gains have been accompanied by above-average volatility that investors should monitor.

Currently trading at $53.57, KNX sits approximately 46% above its 52-week low but remains 13% below its yearly high, positioning it in the upper-mid range of its annual spectrum. Given the recent steep ascent and proximity to recent highs, the stock shows potential overbought characteristics, though it hasn't yet reached extreme territory relative to its yearly peak.

Revenue & Profitability KNX showed modest revenue growth from Q2 to Q3 2025, increasing from $1.86B to $1.93B. However, profitability metrics weakened significantly, with gross profit margin declining from 6.5% to 10.8% and net profit margin falling sharply from 1.8% to just 0.4%. The exceptionally high effective tax rate of 47% in Q3 contributed materially to the profit compression despite revenue growth.

Financial Health The company maintains a conservative debt profile with a low debt ratio of 22% and manageable debt-to-equity of 0.39. However, cash flow coverage is concerning with a cash flow to debt ratio of only 0.08 and interest coverage of just 2.1, indicating limited capacity to service obligations from operating cash flows. The current ratio of 1.33 provides adequate short-term liquidity, though cash ratio of 0.27 suggests reliance on non-cash current assets.

Operational Efficiency KNX demonstrates weak operational efficiency with very low return metrics, including ROE of 0.1% and ROCE of 0.7%. Asset turnover of 0.15 indicates inefficient utilization of the asset base to generate revenue. The company maintains reasonable working capital management with a cash conversion cycle of 31 days, though receivables turnover of 2.0 suggests room for improvement in collection efficiency.

KNX's valuation presents a mixed picture based on absolute metrics. The stock appears richly valued based on its elevated trailing PE ratio of 60.9 and forward PE of 26.4, though the significantly lower forward multiple suggests strong earnings growth expectations. This growth narrative is supported by a PEG ratio of 0.57, which indicates potential undervaluation relative to earnings growth. The PB ratio of 1.22 and PS ratio of 1.16 appear reasonable, suggesting the market is not pricing the stock at excessive premiums to its asset or sales bases.

A peer comparison cannot be completed due to the unavailability of industry average data. However, an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2 provides some context, though without industry benchmarks it's difficult to determine if this represents a premium or discount to peers. The analysis would benefit significantly from comparative industry ratios to properly assess KNX's relative valuation position.

Volatility Risk: KNX exhibits elevated volatility risk, with a beta of 1.171 indicating it is approximately 17% more volatile than the broader market. This heightened sensitivity is further evidenced by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -34.86%, underscoring the stock's potential for significant price declines during market downturns and its amplified exposure to systematic risk factors.

Other Risks: With a notably low short interest of 3.07%, KNX faces minimal risk from coordinated short-selling pressure. However, this metric alone does not fully assess liquidity constraints or company-specific operational challenges, which could still pose material risks if fundamental performance deteriorates or if broader economic conditions impact its operational sector.