NKE

Based on the comprehensive analysis, Nike presents a challenging but potentially opportunistic case for investors. The stock is technically oversold after a significant decline, trading near its 52-week low, which may attract buyers looking for a rebound. Fundamentally, while showing sequential revenue growth, the company faces profitability pressures with declining margins and a currently negative interest coverage ratio that requires scrutiny. Valuation remains at a premium across most multiples, suggesting the market still prices in future growth expectations despite recent operational headwinds.

Buy Recommendation: NKE is currently a speculative buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term perspective. The deep technical downturn presents a potential entry point, but this is counterbalanced by fundamental pressures on profitability and a premium valuation that demands strong future execution. Investors should be prepared for continued volatility and consider dollar-cost averaging into a position, as a sustainable recovery is contingent on Nike successfully navigating its margin challenges and reinvigorating its brand momentum. This is not investment advice, for reference only.

RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Nike (NKE):

12-Month Outlook for NKE:

Nike's outlook hinges on its ability to execute a operational turnaround, with key catalysts being a successful launch of innovative product cycles and decisive cost-cutting measures to restore profitability and investor confidence. The primary risks are persistent margin pressures from intense competition and promotional activity, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds that could further dampen consumer spending on discretionary items. Given the significant disconnect between the current price and analyst consensus, the stock has a consensus target price range centering around $77, implying substantial upside potential if the company can demonstrate a credible path to improved earnings.

*Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

华尔街共识

大多数华尔街分析师对NKE未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。

综合来看，NKE具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。

NKE has demonstrated significant weakness over the past year, with a substantial drawdown reflecting persistent negative momentum. The stock's high beta indicates it has been more volatile than the broader market during this period of decline.

Over the short term, NKE has underperformed significantly, posting losses of 2.5% over one month and 14.87% over three months. This performance is notably worse than the market, as evidenced by the -19.27% relative strength, confirming the stock's pronounced weakness.

Currently trading at $60.0, NKE sits much closer to its 52-week low of $52.28 than its high of $82.44, suggesting it is in oversold territory. This position near the lower end of its annual range combined with the deep drawdown indicates significant selling pressure has already occurred.

Revenue & Profitability: NIKE demonstrated sequential revenue growth from $11.72 billion in Q1 to $12.43 billion in Q2, though profitability faced pressure as the gross profit margin declined from 42.2% to 40.6%. The net income margin also experienced a slight compression, falling from 6.2% to 6.4% quarter-over-quarter, indicating some challenges in maintaining bottom-line growth amid rising costs.

Financial Health: While balance sheet ratios are unavailable in the provided data, the interest coverage ratio is negative (-11.2) for the quarter. This unusual figure, where interest expense exceeded operating income, warrants further investigation into the company's debt structure and underlying cash flows, which are not detailed in this quarterly report.

Operational Efficiency: Key operational metrics such as return on equity (ROE) and asset turnover are not provided, limiting a detailed efficiency analysis. However, the company's price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 30.5 suggests the market is pricing in expectations for future operational improvements and earnings growth.

Valuation Level: NKE appears moderately expensive based on traditional multiples. The TTM PE of 35.1 and forward PE of 25.5 suggest elevated valuation despite some earnings growth expectations, while the PB of 6.3 and PS of 1.9 indicate premium pricing relative to asset and sales bases. The PEG of 1.85 confirms the stock trades at a premium to its earnings growth rate, and the high EV/EBITDA of 24.0 further supports this assessment.

Peer Comparison: Without specific industry benchmarks, I cannot provide a direct peer comparison analysis. For proper contextual analysis, industry average data for athletic footwear and apparel companies would be required to determine how NKE's valuation multiples compare against sector norms. The absence of comparative data limits the ability to assess relative valuation positioning.

NKE exhibits elevated volatility risk, with a beta of 1.29 indicating the stock is historically more volatile than the broader market. This is substantiated by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -34.48%, demonstrating significant downside exposure during recent market stress. These metrics suggest the stock is prone to experiencing larger price swings than the overall market.

Other risks are relatively moderate, as evidenced by a low short interest of only 2.84%, which suggests minimal bearish sentiment from sophisticated investors. Liquidity is typically robust for a large-cap stock like Nike. The primary risks in this category likely stem from macroeconomic factors affecting consumer discretionary spending and intense competitive pressures within the global athletic apparel market.