OSCR

Based on the provided data, Oscar Health (OSCR) presents a highly speculative and high-risk investment profile.

Technical Analysis & Risk: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, evidenced by significant recent losses and high volatility. Its price action indicates persistent selling pressure rather than a consolidating base, suggesting the downtrend may not be over. The high beta of 1.9 means it is likely to fall further in any broad market decline.

Fundamentals & Valuation: The core issue is OSCR's lack of profitability. Despite generating substantial revenue, the company is burning cash and reporting net losses. Key financial health metrics, like low liquidity ratios and negative cash flow, point to operational challenges. Valuation metrics are difficult to interpret positively due to the absence of earnings.

Recommendation: Based on this analysis, OSCR is not worth buying at this time. The combination of a clear technical downtrend, persistent unprofitability, and weak financial health presents too much risk for most investors. Investors should wait for concrete evidence of a fundamental turnaround, such as a clear path to sustainable profitability and positive cash flow, before considering a position. This stock is suitable only for those with a very high risk tolerance who are speculating on a long-term recovery.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景

Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for Oscar Health (OSCR) is cautious with a high degree of uncertainty.

Key Catalysts: A sustained reversal is heavily dependent on the company demonstrating a credible and achievable path to profitability, such as significantly reducing its cash burn and reporting a quarterly profit, which would serve as the primary positive catalyst.

Potential Risks: The major risks remain substantial, including the persistent technical downtrend, high volatility (beta of 1.9), and ongoing fundamental challenges like negative cash flow and net losses, which could lead to further downside, especially in a weak market.

Target Price: The existing analyst target price of approximately $14.67 aligns closely with the current price, reflecting the prevailing skepticism and lack of immediate positive catalysts, suggesting limited upside potential over the period.

华尔街共识

大多数华尔街分析师对OSCR未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。

综合来看，OSCR具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。

OSCR has demonstrated significantly weak performance, substantially underperforming the market over recent periods. The stock has fallen markedly from its yearly high, exhibiting high volatility and a deep maximum drawdown.

Short-term performance shows sustained weakness, with a 9.46% decline over one month accelerating to a 15.93% drop over three months. This represents severe underperformance versus the broader market, lagging by over 20 percentage points during the three-month period.

The current price of $14.93 sits approximately 37% below the 52-week high but 33% above the yearly low, positioning it closer to mid-range territory. However, the significant recent declines and high beta suggest the stock remains in a volatile downtrend rather than appearing technically oversold.

Revenue & Profitability: OSCR demonstrates concerning profitability trends despite generating substantial revenue. The company reported a net loss of $137 million in Q3 2025, with a negative net profit margin of -4.6%, though this represents an improvement from the -8.0% margin in the previous quarter. Revenue grew 4.3% quarter-over-quarter to $2.99 billion, indicating some top-line momentum despite persistent unprofitability.

Financial Health: The company maintains a moderate debt position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, but faces significant cash flow challenges. Both current and quick ratios below 1.0 indicate potential liquidity constraints, while the negative cash flow to debt ratio of -1.41 reflects insufficient operating cash flow to service obligations. The interest coverage ratio of -18.8 further underscores earnings inadequacy relative to interest expenses.

Operational Efficiency: Operational metrics reveal substantial inefficiencies, with a deeply negative return on equity of -13.4% and negative return on assets of -2.4%. The asset turnover ratio of 0.52 suggests modest revenue generation relative to the asset base, while the company's negative operating cash flow per share of -$3.78 indicates fundamental operational cash burn despite revenue scale.

Valuation Level: Oscar Health trades at a negative forward P/E and EV/EBITDA, indicating the company is not currently profitable. The stock's valuation is primarily driven by its price-to-sales multiple of approximately 0.38, which suggests a modest revenue-based valuation given the absence of earnings. The price-to-book ratio of 3.8 indicates the market is valuing the company at a significant premium to its book value.

Peer Comparison: A comparative industry analysis cannot be meaningfully conducted as the necessary industry average data is unavailable. Without benchmark metrics for the health insurance sector, it is impossible to determine if Oscar's valuation multiples are high or low relative to its peers. The assessment is therefore limited to an absolute view of the company's standalone financial metrics.

Volatility Risk: OSCR exhibits substantial volatility risk, evidenced by a Beta of 1.878, indicating it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. This elevated sensitivity to market movements is further confirmed by a severe one-year maximum drawdown of -42.01%, highlighting the potential for substantial losses during market downturns. Consequently, the stock's price is subject to considerable fluctuation and capital erosion potential.

Other Risks: The primary risks appear less concentrated in short-term trading pressures, as the short interest is quite low at 2.3%, suggesting limited bearish sentiment. However, investors should be mindful of potential liquidity risks or other fundamental factors not captured by these metrics, such as company-specific execution challenges or industry headwinds, which could impact long-term performance.