SMR
SMRNuScale Power Corporation designs and markets small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) for the industrial sector.
The company is a pioneer in advanced nuclear technology, distinguished by its scalable, safer reactor designs that aim to provide carbon-free energy solutions for diverse power generation needs.
更新时间：December 28, 2025, 16:00 EST
投资观点：SMR值得买吗？
Analysis of SMR Stock
Technical Perspective SMR has experienced severe price deterioration, plummeting 61% over three months and significantly underperforming the broader market. Although the stock appears deeply oversold and may see a technical bounce near its 52-week low, its extreme volatility (beta >2) indicates persistent high risk, making any recovery speculative and unstable.
Fundamental Assessment Fundamentally, SMR faces substantial challenges: it swung to a large net loss of $273 million last quarter amid soaring SG&A expenses. While the company maintains adequate short-term liquidity, its deeply negative cash flow and poor operational efficiency—evidenced by negative returns on equity and assets—signal serious underlying issues in sustainability and capital allocation.
Valuation and Risk Outlook Valuation metrics are concerning, with negative profitability ratios and a high price-to-sales multiple suggesting lofty growth expectations. Combined with extreme market volatility and a history of sharp drawdowns, the stock carries elevated risk without clear evidence of a near-term turnaround or competitive advantage.
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Investment Recommendation
Based on the analysis, SMR is not recommended for purchase at this time. The stock exhibits severe technical weakness, fundamental deterioration in profitability, and unsustainable cash burn, overshadowing its oversold status. High volatility and absent peer benchmarking further cloud its recovery prospects. Investors should await concrete operational improvements or stabilizing financials before considering a position.
SMR未来12个月走势预测
RockFlow 模型预测：2026年三种情景
Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for SMR is highly speculative and carries significant risk.
Key Catalysts: The primary potential catalyst is a technical rebound from its deeply oversold condition near 52-week lows. However, a more meaningful recovery is contingent on concrete operational improvements, such as a dramatic reduction in its cash burn and a credible path back to profitability.
Potential Risks: The risks are substantial and include continued fundamental deterioration, unsustainable negative cash flow, and extreme price volatility (beta >2). The company's lofty valuation multiples, despite its negative profitability, create a high risk of further disappointment if growth expectations are not met.
Target Price Range: While the analyst target price of $35.5 suggests significant theoretical upside, it appears disconnected from the current severe technical and fundamental weaknesses. A more cautious and realistic 12-month target range would be $12 - $22, heavily dependent on the company demonstrating a clear turnaround.
华尔街共识
大多数华尔街分析师对SMR未来12个月的走势持乐观态度，主流目标价集中在$0.00左右，表明普遍预期公司仍有上涨空间。
投资SMR的利好利空
综合来看，SMR具备一定的投资价值，但也面临多重挑战。以下是投资该股票前需要权衡的主要因素。
利好
- NRC Design Approval: Only US SMR company with regulatory-approved design, providing competitive advantage.
- Strong Partnerships: Major partnerships demonstrate industry validation and project traction.
- Nuclear-AI Hype: Benefiting from growing interest in advanced nuclear and AI technologies.
- Recent Price Recovery: Stock up 13% over three months despite recent volatility.
利空
- Share Dilution Risk: Potential stock dilution threatens shareholder value and earnings per share.
- Intense Competition: Faces strong competition in the emerging SMR market space.
- Valuation Concerns: High valuation multiples raise sustainability questions despite recent pullback.
- Recent Stock Decline: Sharp 44% monthly drop indicates significant investor uncertainty.
SMR 技术面分析
SMR has exhibited severe underperformance characterized by substantial price deterioration across all measured timeframes. The stock has experienced a dramatic 61% decline over three months, significantly underperforming the broader market.
The short-term performance is exceptionally weak, with a 19% one-month loss compounding the severe quarterly decline. The stock has dramatically underperformed the market by over 65% during this three-month period, indicating company-specific or sector-specific issues rather than broad market weakness.
Currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, SMR appears deeply oversold from a technical perspective. Sitting approximately 72% below its 52-week high and just 45% above its low suggests the potential for a technical bounce, though the extreme volatility (beta >2) indicates continued high risk.
| 时间段 | SMR涨跌幅 | 标普500 |
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SMR 基本面分析
Revenue & Profitability SMR's Q3 2025 revenue of $8.2 million shows modest sequential growth from Q2's $8.1 million, but profitability has deteriorated significantly. The company swung to a substantial net loss of $273 million with a -33.2% net margin, primarily driven by a massive $519 million in SG&A expenses that overwhelmed gross profits. This represents a severe deterioration from Q2's smaller $17.6 million net loss and -2.2% margin.
Financial Health The company maintains adequate short-term liquidity with current and quick ratios of 1.62, supported by a strong cash ratio of 0.91. However, cash flow metrics are deeply negative with operating cash flow per share at -$1.35, indicating substantial cash burn. The absence of debt ratios suggests minimal leverage, but the negative enterprise value multiple of -21.2 reflects market concerns about the company's financial sustainability.
Operational Efficiency Operational metrics reveal severe challenges, with return on equity at -33.0% and return on assets at -30.9%, indicating poor capital allocation efficiency. The asset turnover ratio of 0 reflects minimal revenue generation relative to the asset base, while the negative return on capital employed of -123.1% demonstrates significant value destruction in core operations. These metrics collectively point to fundamental operational inefficiencies.
最近两年营收 & 净利润走势
公司主要靠什么赚钱？
估值分析：SMR是否被高估？
Valuation Level: SMR's valuation metrics present significant concerns. The company has negative forward P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, indicating it is not currently profitable, while the exceptionally high PS ratio of 71 suggests investors are pricing in extremely optimistic future growth expectations. The PB ratio above 3 also points to premium valuation relative to book value.
Peer Comparison: Without industry average data available for comparison, SMR's valuation assessment remains limited in context. The negative profitability metrics and elevated multiples would typically signal overvaluation, but a definitive conclusion requires benchmarking against sector peers to understand whether similar growth expectations are industry-standard or company-specific.
投资风险提示
Volatility Risk: SMR exhibits exceptionally high volatility risk, with a beta of 2.099 indicating it is approximately twice as volatile as the broader market. This extreme sensitivity is confirmed by a severe one-year maximum drawdown of -70.56%, highlighting a substantial risk of significant capital depreciation during market downturns.
Other Risks: The stock's low short interest of just 1.71% suggests minimal immediate pressure from bearish bets, but it also implies limited negative sentiment may already be priced in. While this figure itself does not indicate a major liquidity risk, the stock's high volatility could exacerbate any potential liquidity challenges during periods of stress.
常见问题
Bearish - SMR appears too risky for most investors at this juncture. The stock exhibits severe fundamental deterioration with massive net losses and negative cash flows, compounded by extreme price volatility (beta >2) and a recent sharp decline. While its NRC-approved design offers a unique long-term potential, current operational inefficiencies and valuation concerns present substantial near-term risk. Suitable only for highly risk-tolerant speculators betting on the nuclear-AI thematic, not for conservative or value-oriented investors.
Based on available data, SMR appears to be significantly overvalued. The stock trades at an exceptionally high Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 71 and a negative Forward P/E, indicating the market is pricing in extremely optimistic growth despite severe current unprofitability. Key concerns include a massive net loss of $273 million, negative operating cash flow, and deeply negative return metrics (ROE: -33.0%), which signal fundamental operational inefficiencies and value destruction. Without compelling evidence that its growth trajectory justifies these premiums, the valuation seems disconnected from its weak financial reality.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding SMR stock, ordered by importance:
1. Fundamental Viability Risk: The company is experiencing severe cash burn and profitability collapse, evidenced by a massive $273 million quarterly net loss and negative operating cash flow, which raises existential concerns about its financial sustainability. 2. Extreme Price Volatility Risk: The stock exhibits exceptionally high volatility (beta of 2.1) and has experienced a catastrophic 70% maximum drawdown, posing a substantial risk of rapid and significant capital depreciation. 3. Operational Inefficiency Risk: Fundamental operational metrics are deeply negative, including a -123% return on capital employed and a 0.0 asset turnover ratio, indicating profound inefficiency and value destruction within the core business.
Based on the fundamental deterioration and negative operational metrics, my 2026 forecast for SMR is cautious with a base case target of $10-18 and a bull case of $25-35, contingent solely on a dramatic operational turnaround. The key growth drivers must include a drastic reduction in its unsustainable cash burn, a credible path to positive cash flow, and improved capital allocation efficiency after recent significant value destruction. This assumes management can execute a severe cost-cutting initiative—particularly on the $519 million SG&A expenses—and stabilize revenue, though the current negative enterprise value reflects deep market skepticism. The forecast carries extreme uncertainty given the company's negative profitability, substantial cash burn, and operational inefficiencies, making any recovery highly speculative and dependent on execution that has not yet been demonstrated.